MLB Hot Stove League news, notes, and rumors

#41
I think there's a decent chance he does return to form, at least for 2020. He broke a forearm getting hit by a line drive, and did come back after it healed, only to pull an oblique. But his shoulder and elbow got quite a break, as he only made 7 starts in 2019.
Im just reading the tea leaves, they know all this and a lot more we don't, and dealt him. Feels like the Tribe is telling us what to expect.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#42
theo said in the past.. he will build from within and not make the same mistake with getting rid of top picks for top players. So the free agent big splash days are over for the cubs.
But he hasn’t lost any top talent outside of Jiminez and Torres - and trading Torres won a title. The way their team is constructed, the minor leaguers would be used for trading. They didn’t give up much for Castellenos, it’ll be a shame to see him walk. The weakness Theo has is developing pitching.
 
#43
The Reds have signed FA pitcher Wade Miley to a 2 year deal worth 15M, seems like the Reds got a bargain. He did have a poor second half for Houston last year, but his overall numbers were pretty solid, I like the signing, the Reds have a very good rotation and could be a surprise team next year
 
#44
But he hasn’t lost any top talent outside of Jiminez and Torres - and trading Torres won a title. The way their team is constructed, the minor leaguers would be used for trading. They didn’t give up much for Castellenos, it’ll be a shame to see him walk. The weakness Theo has is developing pitching.
This is exactly the way the Red Sox were run when theo was there. Try to develop as much home grown talent as position players, then sign free agent pitchers...pedro, schilling, wakefield, becket,etc....and to be honest, it works.
 
#45
But he hasn’t lost any top talent outside of Jiminez and Torres - and trading Torres won a title. The way their team is constructed, the minor leaguers would be used for trading. They didn’t give up much for Castellenos, it’ll be a shame to see him walk. The weakness Theo has is developing pitching.


Bad luck with heywrd...kept swarber and happ too long...now letting castelano walk
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#46
Bad luck with heywrd...kept swarber and happ too long...now letting castelano walk
And Almora.

They haven't had a leadoff hitter since Fowler left, which is a huge problem. You are correct in they fall in love with their draft picks, sucks all of the value out them. The Heyward contract will ended up looking fair, but when they needed to acquire pieces, it was an albatross. The same can be said for Darvish. The innings leader for a Theo-drafted pitcher in Chicago is roughly 42 innings, not a typo.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#49
Did hear a pretty interesting discussion on WMVP today in regards to the Cubs offseason. The Wrigley Field and Wrigleyville costs were double what they expected. The Cubs will not take on more salary until they shed some first. The their problem is their new network (Marquee Network) hasn’t come to a agreement with Comcast in Chicago.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#50
Pretty good deal as long as he doesn't break down. Also do have to see how much of his production was from the pitchers park.
There does seem to a home/road dichotemy for MadBum.

Career home ERA: 2.72 career FIP: 2.96 career XFIP: 3.35
Career road ERA: 3.53 career FIP: 3.68 career XFIP: 3.69
 
#53
The Reds and FA outfielder Nick Castellanos have agreed on a four year deal worth 64M, the Reds have had a great offseason and are now serious playoff contenders, it's been a while since I was this excited for the start of a season
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#54
And Almora.

They haven't had a leadoff hitter since Fowler left, which is a huge problem. You are correct in they fall in love with their draft picks, sucks all of the value out them. The Heyward contract will ended up looking fair, but when they needed to acquire pieces, it was an albatross. The same can be said for Darvish. The innings leader for a Theo-drafted pitcher in Chicago is roughly 42 innings, not a typo.
Fowler was good with the Cubs but since he left, he hasn't been good. Re-signing him would've been a waste. Almora is obviously more of a defender and I think they've been expecting ( hoping) he would develop power.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#55
What's everyone's take on the Braves? My one RSW bet loss was betting the Braves under last year. They had some good fortune in 2018 and I felt were due for some regression. They did have a couple young pitchers develop faster than I thought, although the advanced numbers said those pitchers may have been fortunate.

C: 2019: B McCann/Flowers 2020: D'Arnaud
1B: Freeman
2B: Albies
SS: Swanson
3B: 2019: Donaldson 2020: Riley
OF: Acuna
OF: Markakis
OF: 2019: Riley/Joyce 2020: Ozuna
SP: 2019: Soroka, Fried, Keuchel, Folty, Teheran
2020: Soroka, Fried, Hamels, Folty,. K Wright (?)

They are priced at 92 wins. A lot of them reaching that number will depend on the performance of the Mets and Phillies. Can the Mets staff finally stay healthy? Are the Phillies just overrated? Did the public put too much emphasis on the Harper signing?

There are reasons to believe the Braves are due for some regression but they do have a strong nucleus. Hard to imagine any falloff in wins will be too severe unless Acuna were to miss a lot of games. Losing Donaldson and gaining Ozuna a slight downgrade. Losing Keuchel and Teheran and gaining Hamels and an unknown 5th starter a slight downgrade as well.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#56
Fowler was good with the Cubs but since he left, he hasn't been good. Re-signing him would've been a waste. Almora is obviously more of a defender and I think they've been expecting ( hoping) he would develop power.
The marriage between Fowler and St Louis has been rocky from the start, beginning with the fans and his wife - who is Iranian.

This cubs offseason has been nothing short of a disaster. Ownership is just concerned with staying under the cap. it may get ugly if they don’t get a deal with Comcast for tv, the fans were testy at the Cub Convention.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#57
I think they are taking the wait and see approach. If they are good and in the thick of contention at the trading deadline, Theo will not hesitate to act. But if they are a disappointment, they may just wait the season out.

At 88 wins I wouldn't bet over. But I thought I saw a number much lower, maybe 83-84 somewhere. At that I would consider over. Not sure what to make of Hamels loss. At first I felt he had been fortunate, based on advanced numbers. But we often see these veteran pitchers outperform their advanced metrics. Why? Because the sabermetrics put such a value on strikeouts. IMO strikeouts are much more important to relievers, who often enter the game in high leverage situations with runners on base. But a starter? Would you rather have a pitcher get an 8 pitch strikeout or a 2 or 3 pitch groundout? Innings pitched is something the saber crowd undervalues, and one knows they can trust Hamels to provide a decent number of innings.

5th starter is a big ? Mills? I would rather spot start Chatwood. Chatwood is murder on RHH, and I'd much rather see him start against a RH heavy lineup like St. Louis. Chatwood's issue isn't his stuff; its finding the strike zone.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#58
I was surprised they didn’t resign Kinzler. He signed with Miami for $3mil. He was pretty dependable for the Cubs, I don’t see that person in their BP this year. Just with the bullpen questions and Lester being another year older, I’m on the under 84.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#59
I was surprised they didn’t resign Kinzler. He signed with Miami for $3mil. He was pretty dependable for the Cubs, I don’t see that person in their BP this year. Just with the bullpen questions and Lester being another year older, I’m on the under 84.
I agree Kintzler should've been re-signed if he only cost $3 million. While Lester is a big question mark due to his age, I liked what I saw out of Darvish last year. All that talk about him tipping pitches vs the Astros.....now we know the rest of the story. But I'm not overly bullish on any of the NL Central overs. Maybe Kane is right to be bullish on the Reds. The rotation is decent with Castillo/Bauer/Gray/Miley/DeSclafani is solid. No number 1s but definitely capable. Acquino will be with the team all season. They pick up Castellanos, Moustakis and Galvis. Galvis actually hit 23 HRs last year. I'm bearish on Votto. His power has really fallen and his average, too, the past 2 seasons. Suarez will put up big numbers. But in that park, the numbers can be a little tricky. It isn't exactly Coors, but one gets the feeling anyone with a pulse should hit 25 HRs playing 81 games there.

But before anyone gets too excited about the Reds, remember teams like the Padres and White Sox a few years back; teams that make a bunch of acquistions tend to struggle integrating the new players into the system. Not sure how these 30 year olds and up will mix in Skyline City.
 
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FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#60
I agree Kintzler should've been re-signed if he only cost $3 million. While Lester is a big question mark due to his age, I liked what I saw out of Darvish last year. All that talk about him tipping pitches vs the Astros.....now we know the rest of the story. But I'm not overly bullish on any of the NL Central overs. Maybe Kane is right to be bullish on the Reds. The rotation is decent with Castillo/Bauer/Gray/Miley/DeSclafani is solid. No number 1s but definitely capable. Acquino will be with the team all season. They pick up Castellanos, Moustakis and Galvis. Galvis actually hit 23 HRs last year. I'm bearish on Votto. His power has really fallen and his average, too, the past 2 seasons. Suarez will put up big numbers. But in that park, the numbers can be a little tricky. It isn't exactly Coors, but one gets the feeling anyone with a pulse should hit 25 HRs playing 81 games there.

But before anyone gets too excited about the Reds, remember teams like the Padres and White Sox a few years back; teams that make a bunch of acquistions tend to struggle integrating the new players into the system. Not sure how these 30 year olds and up will mix in Skyline City.
Personally I would have moved Lester and resigned Hamels since money seems to be an issue. Someone would have taken a chance on lester in his final year, and Hamels would get you thru a couple of years at a less than lester money.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#61
I was surprised they didn’t resign Kinzler. He signed with Miami for $3mil. He was pretty dependable for the Cubs, I don’t see that person in their BP this year. Just with the bullpen questions and Lester being another year older, I’m on the under 84.
They signed Jeffress today. If they can get the 2018 Jeffress, he will be a solid addition. The 2019 version, not so much.
 
#71
I have a feeling that with the Reds, the whole will be less than the sum of the parts. Going to hit a lot of solo home runs and get a lot of strikeouts. Their rotation should be solid although I think one can see big regression from Miley. Especially in that park. These teams that make a lot of offseason acquistions often need a year or two to integrate the parts. St. Louis isn't going away. And even if one doesn't think the Cubs or Brewers get to 90 wins, both likely will finish over .500.
 
#72
Reds are gonna be a real headache this yr...

SP...
castillo
bauer
gray
miley
desclafani

Lineup..
Winker
Votto
Castellanos
Suarez
Moose
Senzel
Galvis
Barnhart
As a Reds fan I hope you're right, I'm really looking forward to the season, Votto needs to rebound and have a Votto like year, I think how he goes is how the Reds will go
 
#73
As a Reds fan I hope you're right, I'm really looking forward to the season, Votto needs to rebound and have a Votto like year, I think how he goes is how the Reds will go
I think you have plenty to look forward to...

central is not a powerhouse by any means & reds have a loaded lineup, pen and 2nd best division SP.
 
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#76
Westgate has the opening day numbers up.

With all the parity in sports today 2020 MLB will have none of that. One thing is for sure. I’ve never seen a -450 road favorite in March before.


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