My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
Most young men in Latin America live only for today.

There's little planning, no forward-thinking and plenty of daredevil maneuvers.

Survival, let alone success, is difficult; thus illegal activity is viewed as a legitimate way to achieve financial freedom.

After all, they conclude, desperate times call for desperate measures.

Latin America is home to only 8% of the world's population but represents over 33% of its homicides.

It should come as no surprise that a skinny 25-year-old Dominican named Rolfa Ferrera Cruz is being charged for the attempted murder of former Major League Baseball star David Ortiz.

Nine others, most involved with a Dominican gang known for drug-selling and contract killing, also were arrested.

Why 10 arrests?

That's how police agencies outside the United States operate.

Arrest every person in the criminal's inner circle and then use prison time as leverage to gather more information about the crime.

Melvin Flores, a native of Honduras now living here in Costa Rica, offered insight on police enforcement and justice systems in different jurisdictions.

"The presumption of innocence exists in perception, not reality. That's the case everywhere in the world including the United States."

"In many third-world countries, the cops are corrupt. They are partners with the bad guys and drug lords. That's why you see so many wealthy Americans in foreign countries hiring their own security detail."

"Here in Costa Rica, a rookie cop is going to make about $800 a month. Do you think he's going to risk life and limb to save someone? Highly doubtful. And I don't blame him."

David Ortiz was not protected by a security force last Sunday night at Dial Bar and Lounge on the gritty east side of Santo Domingo, the capital city of the Dominican Republic.

The baseball hero nicknamed "Big Papi" is a man of the people and he unwisely assumed the people would protect him.

Then again, there's no defense against a gunshot to the back in an ambush attack.

Last week's assassination attempt on the life of Ortiz sent reverberations through the high-profile world of sports and the low-level field of criminal activity.

New details are being uncovered daily.

Cue Melvin Flores.

"Believe me, this story will die without the actual details coming to light. Happens all the time in places like the Dominican Republic."

Flores continued, "The authorities will arrest the underlings but fail to capture the people who ordered the hit. They may report the arrest of a kingpin, but it's likely fake news. And in a strange twist, it's possible the surviving victim (Ortiz) may not want the facts to be revealed either."

Flores is a no-nonsense talker who speaks in perfect English despite his Honduran upbringing.

He hails from San Pedro Sula, an area recognized as the most dangerous city in the world outside a war zone.

He once served time for peddling drugs in New York, spending eight years in federal prison there.

"After the World Trade Center bombings in 2001, things got tough for ex-convicts from foreign lands. They revoked my green card so I'm not allowed to go back to the United States."

Flores then offered insight on the current immigration problems in the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.

"When Trump came into power, he deported a lot of gang members loyal to Mara Salvatrucha 13 (MS-13) and Barrio 18. They all headed back home to Honduras and El Salvador and now they're wreaking havoc with the local population. And that's why good people, innocent people, are fleeing to the United States."


MORE POLITICS.....The 2020 presidential election is 499 days away and Democrats are holding their first primary debates later this month in Miami.

The debate field of 20, reminiscent of the Kentucky Derby, will be split into two groups of 10, reminiscent of the Hambletonian.

However, there is no also-eligible list, much to the dismay of Steve Bullock, Seth Moulton and Wayne Messam.

The first group of 10 will debate on June 26 and the second 10 will appear the following night.

Like the Hambletonian, why not bring back the debate winners, as judged by an independent panel of experts, for a third heat?

The competition for the June 27th debates appears stacked compared to the first division.

Four of the top five choices to win the Democratic presidential nomination, including the three betting favorites, will take the stage on the second night in Miami.

The fearsome foursome include Joe Biden (+153), Pete Buttigieg (+456), Bernie Sanders (+485) and Kamala Harris (+686).

Elizabeth Warren (+645), who promotes a plan for everything, drew the weaker group.

Lester Holt will serve as lead moderator for NBC's coverage which will last two hours in prime time on consecutive weeknights (Wednesday and Thursday).

One sleeper candidate who is drawing attention in some betting markets is former tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

Surprisingly, he is listed as the sixth choice to win the Democratic nomination at only 18-1.

Yang supports a form of Universal Basic Income (UBI) by way of a $1,000 "Freedom Dividend" awarded every month to U.S. citizens over the age of 18.

My question for Yang on the debate stage: "Will I be able to request a direct deposit of the $1,000 monthly check to my Pinnacle betting account?"


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 973-974 Houston Astros-Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8.5 runs (-105) widely available.

Wade Miley versus Luis Castillo.

Looks like the 32-year-old Miley could become one of those late-developing lefties in the mold of a Jamie Moyer or Rich Hill.

Miley has been dubbed "Keuchel Light" in Houston this season and he's performed well in trying to replace 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, who recently signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.

Live bullpen arms are ready to support Miley's effort after five or six innings.

Will Harris, Hector Rondon, Ryan Pressley and closer Roberto Osuna have not appeared in a game since last Wednesday.

Cincinnati's Castillo is not only the team's ace, but also one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball.

He's sporting a 6-1 record on a team that's seven games under .500.

He has 96 strikeouts in only 81 innings of work and the Astros whiffed nine times yesterday in a 12-0 home loss to Toronto.

Castillo should record plenty of strikeouts at Great American Ballpark with no DH for Houston and Miley swinging wildly (11 K's from 28 plate appearances last season in Milwaukee).

But the key to the bet is Wade Miley's pitching performance.

If Miley records a quality start, as he has in eight of 14 starts this season, we should cruise to an easy win.
 
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#2
I have Biden +480 at moving cost average, but still like Biden as a steal at +152.

Joe wins NY and CA easily,

Bernie did well with Canadian border states, but southern Dems will all vote for Joe.

The gay mayor and the India Lawyer pretending to be black to garner votes, her support is fake.

Joe Biden wins easier than Secretariat did in 1973.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
I have Biden +480 at moving cost average, but still like Biden as a steal at +152.

Joe wins NY and CA easily,

Bernie did well on Canadian border states, but southern Dems will all vote for Joe.

The gay mayor and the India Lawyer pretending to be black to garner votes, her support is fake.

Joe Biden wins easier than Secretariat did in 1973.

1560739007836.png
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#8
John, are you going to Saratoga this meet?

Nice Hambletonian reference

No plans to visit Saratoga this year, but with the state of racing in California, I will be there in years to come.

Love the way NYRA presents its simulcast product.

So clear, so clean and so consistent.

Hope all is well, Fifty.
 
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Heim

EOG Master
#11
Excellent reporting on the life and crimes of Latin America.

Let's not forget the American tourists who are mysteriously dying in Dominican resorts.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#12
I need Viejo's take on the mysterious deaths at the Dominican resorts.

I still chuckle at Valuist's funny line.

Visit the D.R. then go straight to the E.R.
 
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#13
The competition for the June 27th debates appears stacked compared to the first division.

Four of the top five choices to win the Democratic presidential nomination, including the three betting favorites, will take the stage on the second night in Miami.
Just like the luck of the draw for post position in single heat race or a race split into two divisions like this years' Rebel at Oaklawn Park.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#15
Just like the luck of the draw for post position in single heat race or a race split into two divisions like this years' Rebel at Oaklawn Park.

Advantage: Elizabeth Warren.

And she's good at explaining complex issues in clear and concise terms.

That's where her teaching background kicks in.

No comment on her ethnic background.
 
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#17
Fine work JK!!!

One thing I don't understand on the Pinnacle site with their politics betting. They list Donald Trump as the favorite at +106 vs. all the other Dem potential nominees. The front runner, Biden is +222. But if you look at the straight party line betting, the Dems are -121 vs Republican +104. Therefore, in the field betting, why wouldn't say Biden be a little better than +106 over Trump? This seems a little off to me. https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/specials/politics/2020-presidential-election-usa

What am I missing?
 
#20
Buttiegieg reportedly speculated he would not be the first gay president.

Hmmm...
There's speculation that the 15th President, James Buchanan (right before Lincoln) was. Buchanan was a bachelor who never married (but that doesn't necessarily prove anything). Further speculation available on the world wide web.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#24
Fine work JK!!!

One thing I don't understand on the Pinnacle site with their politics betting. They list Donald Trump as the favorite at +106 vs. all the other Dem potential nominees. The front runner, Biden is +222. But if you look at the straight party line betting, the Dems are -121 vs Republican +104. Therefore, in the field betting, why wouldn't say Biden be a little better than +106 over Trump? This seems a little off to me. https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/specials/politics/2020-presidential-election-usa

What am I missing?


Hmmm....

Biden, in theory, needs to win two races.

Beat 22 others to win the Dem nomination and then beat Trump one-on-one in the general election.

A two-teamer, if you will.

Biden is +180 to win the Democratic nomination and +222 to win the presidency.

I'm with you, Keith.

Those prices look off or Pinnacle has serious jeopardy on Biden to win the presidency.
 
#25
Advantage: Elizabeth Warren.
Maybe. A case could be made that's she's in the unintentional "kiddy" table debate.

Her debate goes first which is both good and bad.

Let's start with the bad. On the minus side she goes first, just as the kiddy table did during the 2016 Republican primary debates. And on the plus side, her debate is the first one, not the second. It's better to be the warm up act that opens the show before the main event than the warm up act that closes the show after the main act (which off course never happens intentionally).

For example: I am told that Sammy Hagar blew the doors off Boston in a show at the old Kiel Auditorium in the late '70's early '80's, apparently going first.

So going first cuts both ways. But going second would appear to be anti-climactic.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#26
Trump's pomposity worked well in 2016 against a bunch of blah Republican candidates.

Will someone on the Democratic side go rogue?

Feels more like professional wrestling these days than statesmanship.
 
#30
Unfortunately, it looks like you're (we're) about to get screwed on the Stros/Reds under. Way to many baserunners to not get punished. Looks like they'll do it to us here late. Just brutal
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#32
Unfortunately, it looks like you're (we're) about to get screwed on the Stros/Reds under. Way to many baserunners to not get punished. Looks like they'll do it to us here late. Just brutal

We survived, Cho.

Both starters issued a season-high in walks, probably due to the 52-minute rain delay.

Only 10 hits in the game, no home runs and only one extra-base hit, an RBI double by Michael Brantley.

Final score: Reds 3 Astros 2.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#39
Eleven suspects are now in custody for the attempted murder of David Ortiz.

All 11 will spend one year in preventive detention as the crime investigation continues.

How dangerous are court proceedings in places like the D.R.?

The officers who accompany accused criminals to court wear masks to hide their identity.
 
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