NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned

EOG Veteran
#1
Please use this and not the main thread for any comments regarding games, questions, or otherwise. I'd like to keep the other thread clear, so someone that isn't interested in reading and scanning through this one can easily find the plays, if they so choose. Thank you. Best of luck to everyone, my favorite time of year!
 

munson15

I want winners...
#3
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned, I have a question so I can be prepared. When do you expect to post the tourney plays? Thanks, it is not a question of rushing the process, I just want to anticipate if possible. I have two doctor appointments Wednesday, and I want to plan around that. I may cancel if there is a conflict.
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#4
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I'm waiting for totals to come out, as probably 2/3 of the plays are totals, once everything is out, I will post when I can, which should be later today, or at the latest by Tues. AM
 

munson15

I want winners...
#5
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I'm waiting for totals to come out, as probably 2/3 of the plays are totals, once everything is out, I will post when I can, which should be later today, or at the latest by Tues. AM
Thanks very much, that's very helpful to know.:cheers
 
#7
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned, I have a question so I can be prepared. When do you expect to post the tourney plays? Thanks, it is not a question of rushing the process, I just want to anticipate if possible. I have two doctor appointments Wednesday, and I want to plan around that. I may cancel if there is a conflict.

Munson you are so sick man... cancelling your dr. apointments to get the tourney plays. ( thats dedication)... totally something i would do.... good luck man.:LMAO
 
#9
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I was wandering what your thoughts are for these 2 games.. clemson vs michigan.. and marquette vs utah state? I am leaning towards clemson to win this one.. not for sure about the marquette/utah state matchup though.
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#11
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I was wandering what your thoughts are for these 2 games.. clemson vs michigan.. and marquette vs utah state? I am leaning towards clemson to win this one.. not for sure about the marquette/utah state matchup though

I like Michigan their green and growing, think they are a year away, Clemson has been an enigma to me, not sure which Clemson team is going to show up the one that lost 4 out of 5 and got bounced in the first round of the ACC Championship to GT, or the team that beat Duke by 27? Big-10 has the best history of all major conference teams, gun to my head I'd take Michigan, but won't be playing it.

Marquette took a blow losing PG, but they still have a lot of firepower. Utah St. is a mystery, they have a big record, 27-4 but played absolutely noone of the quickness and athleticism of MArquette. The one place most go wrong is to use the fact that they haven't played anyone, a reason for playing against them, it doesn't mean they can or can't, we just don't know. Typically these teams with big records are because of that, and make a quick exit. I really have no thoughts either way here, not enough information.
 

ouch

EOG Veteran
#13
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

In reviewing your plays, I see that there are three fairly large underdogs and ten games that you think will go under.

Since the public generally loves favorites and overs, do you think it is smart to wait closer to tip-off in these games before playing them?

I can recall a point made by Munson during the Bracketbuster when he suggested that rather than waiting for the final line right before game time to play the overs, getting them early was the way to go since the totals would only go up as the start of these games approached.

Munson was right. I was able to save anywhere from .5 to 2.5 points doing this. Since March Madness is a huge public event, it would seem that waiting to get the better "under" price, might be the way to go. Same with the big "dogs".

What do you think?
 

UofM2003

EOG Addicted
#14
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I was wandering what your thoughts are for these 2 games.. clemson vs michigan.. and marquette vs utah state? I am leaning towards clemson to win this one.. not for sure about the marquette/utah state matchup though.
I am taking Michigan in my brackets, but that is because I am highly biased. I would not bet on this game though.

We are an extremely unpredictable team this year, imo. I don't know how we did ATS, but I really don't know which team is going to show up. I normally don't pay attention to announcers, but Jay Bilas is right when he says that if we make shots, we win; if we don't, we lose.

To dig a little deeper, I think three things need to happen, that basically hold true for any game, not just vs. Clemson:

1). No stupid turnovers, especially on the perimeter--we shoot a large amount of 3's, and not at a good percentage (I'm not sure there's a single player who is shooting 40%+ from 3-pt. land). So that means we need as many possessions/opportunities as possible.

2). Sims needs to play down low and not shoot any 3's. He occasionally shoots 3's, and I fucking hate it. He is the only threat we have down low, and when he floats on the perimeter, we get absolutely nothing going. Our team is flooded with perimeter players (who, outside of Harris, can't create on their own), and opportunities don't open up for them without going in-and-out through Sims. And not to mention that we have no rebounding, and could use all the height we can get.

3). We need to good, quality shots. That's basically true for most teams, but we are just not athletic or big enough that we can jack shit up and rely on rebounding and 2nd opportunities. That just doesn't seem to happen with this team.

All of that being said, we can be a very dangerous team because of the large volume of 3's we take. Its difficult to predict if they will go in though...
 

munson15

I want winners...
#16
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I show 158 for the total on the Tenn/Okl St game. The listed play is under 145. Just a typo, I presume? Or does this take it out of our realm? Thanks.
 
#17
Re: NCAAB SYSTEMS THREAD AND PLAYS

Re: NCAAB SYSTEMS THREAD AND PLAYS

Ned are these totals or sides? :+clueless


PURDUE/N. IOWA
WKY/ILL
BUTLER/LSU
AKRON/GONZAGA
WISC/FLA ST
 

munson15

I want winners...
#20
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I knew when I saw the game directly under it was 145 that it was a typo, thanks for the fast answer.:cheers
 

Hawks Fan

EOG Enthusiast
#21
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned has more systems, nice... One question should we play these now or wait till close to game time?

Much appreciated....:thumbsup
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#22
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I think a watchful eye on what the lines are doing is the best answer to that, public tends to drive totals up vs down, but not universally true, especially in this tournament
 
#23
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

ya true, i use a monitoring website like sbrlines to see which way the lines are moving and leaning for future moves
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#24
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I'm curious to see if someone looks at my picks here, and can crack the code of what games I am playing, and why? A few of them will be obvious, but many will not be, just wondering if anyone can, if your right, I will definately acknowledge your due dilligence, and verify that you are.
 

Bailey

EOG Addicted
#26
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I was thinking along the same lines as Munson.Obviously Bracket Buster was all Mid Majors and unders and most of these unders also involve Mid Majors.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#28
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

The seedings obviously have something to do with the formula. I can't figure out the sides for the life of me, though.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#29
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Of the 15 totals Ned posted, 6 are the same as last night's openers, 1 has gone up 1/2 point and 8 have gone down either 1/2 or 1 point. Just a FYI.
 

Ned

EOG Veteran
#31
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

JUST FOR DOG PLAYERS:

Last 2 years dogs are 6-26 ATS on day 1!!!

and 49-75 ATS for the tournaments last 2 39.5%

IF your playing dogs, know where to find them!!!
 

munson15

I want winners...
#33
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

JUST FOR DOG PLAYERS:

Last 2 years dogs are 6-26 ATS on day 1!!!

and 49-75 ATS for the tournaments last 2 39.5%

IF your playing dogs, know where to find them!!!
Funny, dogs used to do well the first 2 days (32 games). I actually played them all blindly a couple of times 5-6 years ago and made money. I guess I'm lucky I stopped.:doh1
 
#34
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

i play with a local and do not get lines till gameday
how much of a line move from your posted line will your system be effective

thanks ed
 

Bailey

EOG Addicted
#36
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Ned,A question about NIT,CIT and CBI tournaments.In these tourneys there are some matchups like bracket buster games.Last night Weber/sd\\SD St,Northeastern/Wyoming,UTEP/Nevada and Kent St/Oakland were bracket buster type games with totals under 145.I played all 4 small and went 2-2.Do you have the database to check how this has done in past?I may be way off base with this but figured I'd ask.Todays bracket buster type games are
Bwl Gr/Creighton 131'
Buffalo/Wich St 121'
Mt St Marys/JMU 132'
Austin Peay/Bradley 140
Belmont/Evansville 139'
Portland/Pacific 128
Drake/Idaho 122'
 
#38
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

Bailey,
I believe if you would have taken the under on all the cball games yesterday you would have went 8-5 ...no complaints about 62%
 

across777

EOG Enthusiast
#39
Re: NCAAB TOURNAMENT Q&A THREAD

I'm looking at the matchups for this year's first round, and with only a few exceptions the public is LARGE on the favorites.

As we know the books are very smart...smarter than the public but not as smart as Ned....so we know that they know that they have been getting killed by the public favs the last 2 years.

So the question is, do they adjust? I find it hard to believe that underdogs will continue to underperform in round 1 year after year...Munson mentioned that dogs have done well in the past, and I also think this is the case but I haven't researched it.

So while i agree with Ned's idea to choose your dogs carefully, is it just me or is playing the favs because of this
 
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