Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Sketchy RBs?
posted: Wednesday, July 26, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Fantasy NFL
Last week I blogged about the first overall pick and who I would choose if I was lucky enough to get the pick that starts the draft. You know, that's pretty important. We know that last season the best spot to pick was second. Why? Well, Shaun Alexander was picked there, right after LaDainian Tomlinson, in most leagues.
Where didn't you want to pick? Well, take your pick! Peyton Manning generally went fourth, and we all know that wasn't such a smart move. The final four running backs taken in the top 10 were Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis and Kevin Jones. Nice. That went well. Drafted 5-through-8 among running backs, they finished ranked 48th, 14th, 27th and 32nd. What gives?
It's a crazy game. We make our best efforts to rank players properly, and take our chances. I was never on the Manning-in-round-one bandwagon, but those four bust running backs, there wasn't much else you could do if you picked middle to late in round one.
So how do we avoid the same fate in 2006? Who is this year's Jamal Lewis, a guy everyone thought would bounce back and be a top 10 player, but he ended up with more fumbles than touchdowns?
For the record, here's my top 12 overall, which as you'll see, mirrors my top 10 at running back. That's right, you won't see me taking a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round. Didn't happen last year, or the year before, won't occur this season. But I fully admit, some of these running backs in the top 12, I'm not feeling the love. Surely Domanick Davis could get hurt early on, or stink, mirroring what McAllister did last season. The Rams' Jackson has been inconsistent, he's no lock. I like LaMont Jordan, but what if Aaron Brooks starts throwing the ball backward again? Plenty of Jordan's value is in his pass catching.
Anyway, my top 12 players are:
1. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
2. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
4. Tiki Barber, Giants
5. Clinton Portis, Redskins
6. Edgerrin James, Colts, um, I mean Cardinals
7. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
8. Carnell Williams, Buccaneers
9. Steven Jackson, Rams
10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
11. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
12. Domanick Davis, Texans
That's right, none of those evil four running backs from last year's first round are back, though I do seem to like McGahee (my 13th pick at RB) more than others, and the Lions' Jones is in my second round. Who else worries me from my current top 12? Glad you asked.
? There's no way we can assume Edgerrin James duplicates his stats in Arizona. I, for one, don't think he'll approach the yards. Edge got his money, and certainly nobody can fault him for that, but his perennial Hawaii trip and more importantly playoff streak is in jeopardy. The Cardinals do not have an effective offensive line, which puts Kurt Warner in danger and hinders running backs (and when you're trailing all the time, that doesn't help). You might say J.J. Arrington and Marcel Shipp are just bad and that's why the Cards couldn't run last year, or Emmitt Smith's 3.5 yards per carry in 2004 occurred because he's old. Well, he was. But the o-line was also a major problem.
I still rank Edge sixth because I could see 1,200 yards and double digit scores, but he won't be as consistent, thanks to the Arizona defense making games into shootouts, and while he's a nice pass-catcher, the Cards won't use him as much as Peyton did. Remember, when Portis switched teams, he had to deal with a clear downgrade on the line and his numbers took a hit. Portis wasn't a lesser player, but all backs need help. Edge might not get that help.
? In Cincinnati, Rudi Johnson has had consecutive seasons of 1,450-something yards and 12 touchdowns. And fantasy owners love him for it, but might get complacent. Carson Palmer is a big key here, because Johnson's effectiveness will be sorely tested if Palmer isn't on the field (remember, Jon Kitna said goodbye) and if he is on the field and not as successful. Johnson does a lot of his damage on first down, and you rarely see him on third downs. Chris Perry is younger, faster, caught 51 passes and averaged 4.6 yards per rush. Is he taking over for Johnson? Of course not, but I could see him getting more carries in his third year and make things more interesting for Johnson.
? Mike Martz is gone from St. Louis, and that's a good thing for Steven Jackson. Maybe now we'll see a consistent running game, and Jackson can count on getting the ball 25 times per game, and near the goal line. Of course, the playcalling only counts for so much. Jackson teases us with potential, has some really big games, but he doesn't look or act durable. That's right, we still don't know if he can play through the pain. The Rams are saying all the right things. Jackson talks a big game. And fantasy owners are jumping on board. But if Jackson delivers another season in which he barely tops 1,000 yards, he'll be viewed next season the way we now look at McGahee.
? I think David Carr showed some improvement last season, and he'll make things easier for Dom Davis. Depending on your style of play and/or league rules, Davis is either a monster option with all the pass catching he does or too risky due to the durability issues. Certainly Houston's refusal to draft Reggie Bush is a good thing for Davis, but some fantasy owners might misread the intent. Davis played in 11 games last season, with his last two games (Weeks 13 and 14) arguably his best. So for the first 12 weeks, he was mighty average, barely a top 20 back. Now he's top 10? I view Davis' ascent into the top 12 as a risk, but worth it for the touchdown potential. But he's no lock.
***
Tremendous feedback about last week's fantasy football blog on who's No. 1 in this year's drafts. Interestingly, while I couldn't find too many others before the blog who agreed with Shaun Alexander as the top choice in 2006 drafts, I've since encountered people who agree or seen a magazine or two with some hesitation on Larry Johnson. Look, I never said this was a slam dunk decision on the top pick in drafts. I continue to say, it's your team, if you get the first pick and want to take LaDainian Tomlinson or even Mike Vanderjagt first, go for it. If I get the first pick, it's the Seahawk. In the meantime, check out the funny Mobile ESPN commercial with Reggie Bush. Even he wants Larry Johnson! Who knows? Remember the year Ricky Williams was the first overall selection? Wasn't too long ago, actually.
? Jay, Gainesville, Fla.: "I believe Shaun Alexander is an extremely risky pick since he is on the cover of Madden 2007 this year."
Eric: Good point, but really, is this how we make decisions now?
? Brent, Pittsburgh: "Eric, I always enjoy your articles, and I was just curious about the latest blog. I own Alexander and he always has 2-3 maddening games due to Mike Holmgren passing 40 times a game and not giving him the ball. Meanwhile, Herm Edwards just runs, runs, runs. Also, although both divisions have questionable defenses, I'd take the sorry AFC West to get torched before the NFC West."
Eric: I don't disagree with your points about Holmgren or Edwards, or about the divisions, but Alexander's overall numbers have been fine for years. Most backs don't do what Johnson did the final two months last season, which is never have an off game. And to be honest, Edwards doesn't inspire confidence as an offensive mind to me.
? Wesley, Casper, Wyo.: "Eric, just wanted to say I completely agree with taking Alexander No. 1. This is what seals the deal for me. While the Chiefs O-line is fantastic when healthy, I think losing even one guy from that starting unit decimates the entire unit. When Willie Roaf was hurt last year, Tony Gonzalez has to stay in and block more and that really takes away the only other weapon on that offense. Say what you want about Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker, they don't scare anyone. I just don't see Roaf or Brian Waters playing the entire season. From the Seattle side, the loss of Steve Hutchinson will be felt, but he still plays guard. Even if he is the best guard in the league, Seattle has sufficient depth to absorb that loss. I also think their receiving corps will be improved with a healthy Darrell Jackson and the addition of Nate Burleson, which will only help Shaun. Thanks for the time."
Eric: A few people asked why I didn't consider Seattle's loss of Hutch as a negative. I do. It should affect him. But how much? I don't think Alexander gets more than 20 touchdowns this season, but the yards, the durability, the entire package is safe no matter who is blocking.
? Suss, New York: "Eric, in regards to the draft order I think it becomes even more challenging picking one when you consider these factors. For Johnson, the loss of Tony Richardson should not be overlooked. He's been as valuable as any fullback. Also, with Trent Green on the decline, an aging O-line and the lack of a true No. 1 receiver, this will allow opposing defenses to stuff the box (and the more Johnson plays, the more familiar defenses become with him). For Alexander, the loss of all-world guard Hutchinson certainly can't help and while I don't buy into the contract year theory either, he did say last year that every run he made, came with the thought of someone showing him the money. With that said, I rode LJ to many league playoffs and I recognize what he can do (note: K.C. has a much tougher schedule). I can't tell you how many times I've changed my draft order and I almost want the third pick so I don't have to make this decision."
Eric: Another fair assessment in that one could make the case the third spot is the best in the draft, because the dropoff to Tomlinson isn't great, and then in round two the LT owner picks ahead of the ones who selected 1-2. Nice call on that.
? Kevin, Gulf Breeze, Fla.: "While it's hard to argue with Alexander's consistent scoring production, there is an obvious reason to go with LJ instead at No. 1. Last year was Alex's contract year and now his incentive is not as strong considering Seattle's antipathy towards him prior to his signing."
Eric: While we're at it, we should throw in the fact that every Super Bowl losing team struggles the next season as a negative. Maybe the Seahawks will suffer some unlucky fortunes this season, lose some though games or have injuries, but I don't want to assume that makes Alexander undesirable. Maybe Johnson had incentive as well since he was trying to prove he could be an every down back with Priest Holmes still in the picture.
? Robb, Austin, Texas: Are you smoking something? Tomlinson is better than Alexander and Johnson combined. You don't watch football much do you?"
Eric: Well, I actually watch quite a bit of football, and I don't smoke. If you asked me who the best player of the three is, I'd be tempted to select Tomlinson. He is a terrific pass catcher, a history of consistent play and durability. But for fantasy football, considering all the factors, Tomlinson ranks third. That's not to say he can't finish first, though.
? Jeremy, Seattle: "Shaun over LJ? You know, my first thought was how you picked Shaun over LT last year. You considered them a 1 and 1a. Am I surprised you would go with Shaun, nope. Not at all. I would prefer not to have the first pick because I don't believe in LJ yet. If I picked second, I may even take LT over LJ. Who knows? But I just wanted to let you know that you had a solid gut feeling last year when you made Shaun your No. 1 pick, so stick with it."
Eric: Full disclosure here, I did consider Tomlinson and Alexander 1 and 1a last season, but I would've taken Tomlinson first. Frankly, I don't recall having either guy in any league. I picked ninth so many times, I developed a hatred for Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis around midseason. But thanks anyway. OK, tomorrow it's the Closer Report for fantasy baseball. Adios.
posted: Wednesday, July 26, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Fantasy NFL
Last week I blogged about the first overall pick and who I would choose if I was lucky enough to get the pick that starts the draft. You know, that's pretty important. We know that last season the best spot to pick was second. Why? Well, Shaun Alexander was picked there, right after LaDainian Tomlinson, in most leagues.
Where didn't you want to pick? Well, take your pick! Peyton Manning generally went fourth, and we all know that wasn't such a smart move. The final four running backs taken in the top 10 were Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Jamal Lewis and Kevin Jones. Nice. That went well. Drafted 5-through-8 among running backs, they finished ranked 48th, 14th, 27th and 32nd. What gives?
It's a crazy game. We make our best efforts to rank players properly, and take our chances. I was never on the Manning-in-round-one bandwagon, but those four bust running backs, there wasn't much else you could do if you picked middle to late in round one.
So how do we avoid the same fate in 2006? Who is this year's Jamal Lewis, a guy everyone thought would bounce back and be a top 10 player, but he ended up with more fumbles than touchdowns?
For the record, here's my top 12 overall, which as you'll see, mirrors my top 10 at running back. That's right, you won't see me taking a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round. Didn't happen last year, or the year before, won't occur this season. But I fully admit, some of these running backs in the top 12, I'm not feeling the love. Surely Domanick Davis could get hurt early on, or stink, mirroring what McAllister did last season. The Rams' Jackson has been inconsistent, he's no lock. I like LaMont Jordan, but what if Aaron Brooks starts throwing the ball backward again? Plenty of Jordan's value is in his pass catching.
Anyway, my top 12 players are:
1. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
2. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
4. Tiki Barber, Giants
5. Clinton Portis, Redskins
6. Edgerrin James, Colts, um, I mean Cardinals
7. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
8. Carnell Williams, Buccaneers
9. Steven Jackson, Rams
10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
11. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
12. Domanick Davis, Texans
That's right, none of those evil four running backs from last year's first round are back, though I do seem to like McGahee (my 13th pick at RB) more than others, and the Lions' Jones is in my second round. Who else worries me from my current top 12? Glad you asked.
? There's no way we can assume Edgerrin James duplicates his stats in Arizona. I, for one, don't think he'll approach the yards. Edge got his money, and certainly nobody can fault him for that, but his perennial Hawaii trip and more importantly playoff streak is in jeopardy. The Cardinals do not have an effective offensive line, which puts Kurt Warner in danger and hinders running backs (and when you're trailing all the time, that doesn't help). You might say J.J. Arrington and Marcel Shipp are just bad and that's why the Cards couldn't run last year, or Emmitt Smith's 3.5 yards per carry in 2004 occurred because he's old. Well, he was. But the o-line was also a major problem.
I still rank Edge sixth because I could see 1,200 yards and double digit scores, but he won't be as consistent, thanks to the Arizona defense making games into shootouts, and while he's a nice pass-catcher, the Cards won't use him as much as Peyton did. Remember, when Portis switched teams, he had to deal with a clear downgrade on the line and his numbers took a hit. Portis wasn't a lesser player, but all backs need help. Edge might not get that help.
? In Cincinnati, Rudi Johnson has had consecutive seasons of 1,450-something yards and 12 touchdowns. And fantasy owners love him for it, but might get complacent. Carson Palmer is a big key here, because Johnson's effectiveness will be sorely tested if Palmer isn't on the field (remember, Jon Kitna said goodbye) and if he is on the field and not as successful. Johnson does a lot of his damage on first down, and you rarely see him on third downs. Chris Perry is younger, faster, caught 51 passes and averaged 4.6 yards per rush. Is he taking over for Johnson? Of course not, but I could see him getting more carries in his third year and make things more interesting for Johnson.
? Mike Martz is gone from St. Louis, and that's a good thing for Steven Jackson. Maybe now we'll see a consistent running game, and Jackson can count on getting the ball 25 times per game, and near the goal line. Of course, the playcalling only counts for so much. Jackson teases us with potential, has some really big games, but he doesn't look or act durable. That's right, we still don't know if he can play through the pain. The Rams are saying all the right things. Jackson talks a big game. And fantasy owners are jumping on board. But if Jackson delivers another season in which he barely tops 1,000 yards, he'll be viewed next season the way we now look at McGahee.
? I think David Carr showed some improvement last season, and he'll make things easier for Dom Davis. Depending on your style of play and/or league rules, Davis is either a monster option with all the pass catching he does or too risky due to the durability issues. Certainly Houston's refusal to draft Reggie Bush is a good thing for Davis, but some fantasy owners might misread the intent. Davis played in 11 games last season, with his last two games (Weeks 13 and 14) arguably his best. So for the first 12 weeks, he was mighty average, barely a top 20 back. Now he's top 10? I view Davis' ascent into the top 12 as a risk, but worth it for the touchdown potential. But he's no lock.
***
Tremendous feedback about last week's fantasy football blog on who's No. 1 in this year's drafts. Interestingly, while I couldn't find too many others before the blog who agreed with Shaun Alexander as the top choice in 2006 drafts, I've since encountered people who agree or seen a magazine or two with some hesitation on Larry Johnson. Look, I never said this was a slam dunk decision on the top pick in drafts. I continue to say, it's your team, if you get the first pick and want to take LaDainian Tomlinson or even Mike Vanderjagt first, go for it. If I get the first pick, it's the Seahawk. In the meantime, check out the funny Mobile ESPN commercial with Reggie Bush. Even he wants Larry Johnson! Who knows? Remember the year Ricky Williams was the first overall selection? Wasn't too long ago, actually.
? Jay, Gainesville, Fla.: "I believe Shaun Alexander is an extremely risky pick since he is on the cover of Madden 2007 this year."
Eric: Good point, but really, is this how we make decisions now?
? Brent, Pittsburgh: "Eric, I always enjoy your articles, and I was just curious about the latest blog. I own Alexander and he always has 2-3 maddening games due to Mike Holmgren passing 40 times a game and not giving him the ball. Meanwhile, Herm Edwards just runs, runs, runs. Also, although both divisions have questionable defenses, I'd take the sorry AFC West to get torched before the NFC West."
Eric: I don't disagree with your points about Holmgren or Edwards, or about the divisions, but Alexander's overall numbers have been fine for years. Most backs don't do what Johnson did the final two months last season, which is never have an off game. And to be honest, Edwards doesn't inspire confidence as an offensive mind to me.
? Wesley, Casper, Wyo.: "Eric, just wanted to say I completely agree with taking Alexander No. 1. This is what seals the deal for me. While the Chiefs O-line is fantastic when healthy, I think losing even one guy from that starting unit decimates the entire unit. When Willie Roaf was hurt last year, Tony Gonzalez has to stay in and block more and that really takes away the only other weapon on that offense. Say what you want about Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker, they don't scare anyone. I just don't see Roaf or Brian Waters playing the entire season. From the Seattle side, the loss of Steve Hutchinson will be felt, but he still plays guard. Even if he is the best guard in the league, Seattle has sufficient depth to absorb that loss. I also think their receiving corps will be improved with a healthy Darrell Jackson and the addition of Nate Burleson, which will only help Shaun. Thanks for the time."
Eric: A few people asked why I didn't consider Seattle's loss of Hutch as a negative. I do. It should affect him. But how much? I don't think Alexander gets more than 20 touchdowns this season, but the yards, the durability, the entire package is safe no matter who is blocking.
? Suss, New York: "Eric, in regards to the draft order I think it becomes even more challenging picking one when you consider these factors. For Johnson, the loss of Tony Richardson should not be overlooked. He's been as valuable as any fullback. Also, with Trent Green on the decline, an aging O-line and the lack of a true No. 1 receiver, this will allow opposing defenses to stuff the box (and the more Johnson plays, the more familiar defenses become with him). For Alexander, the loss of all-world guard Hutchinson certainly can't help and while I don't buy into the contract year theory either, he did say last year that every run he made, came with the thought of someone showing him the money. With that said, I rode LJ to many league playoffs and I recognize what he can do (note: K.C. has a much tougher schedule). I can't tell you how many times I've changed my draft order and I almost want the third pick so I don't have to make this decision."
Eric: Another fair assessment in that one could make the case the third spot is the best in the draft, because the dropoff to Tomlinson isn't great, and then in round two the LT owner picks ahead of the ones who selected 1-2. Nice call on that.
? Kevin, Gulf Breeze, Fla.: "While it's hard to argue with Alexander's consistent scoring production, there is an obvious reason to go with LJ instead at No. 1. Last year was Alex's contract year and now his incentive is not as strong considering Seattle's antipathy towards him prior to his signing."
Eric: While we're at it, we should throw in the fact that every Super Bowl losing team struggles the next season as a negative. Maybe the Seahawks will suffer some unlucky fortunes this season, lose some though games or have injuries, but I don't want to assume that makes Alexander undesirable. Maybe Johnson had incentive as well since he was trying to prove he could be an every down back with Priest Holmes still in the picture.
? Robb, Austin, Texas: Are you smoking something? Tomlinson is better than Alexander and Johnson combined. You don't watch football much do you?"
Eric: Well, I actually watch quite a bit of football, and I don't smoke. If you asked me who the best player of the three is, I'd be tempted to select Tomlinson. He is a terrific pass catcher, a history of consistent play and durability. But for fantasy football, considering all the factors, Tomlinson ranks third. That's not to say he can't finish first, though.
? Jeremy, Seattle: "Shaun over LJ? You know, my first thought was how you picked Shaun over LT last year. You considered them a 1 and 1a. Am I surprised you would go with Shaun, nope. Not at all. I would prefer not to have the first pick because I don't believe in LJ yet. If I picked second, I may even take LT over LJ. Who knows? But I just wanted to let you know that you had a solid gut feeling last year when you made Shaun your No. 1 pick, so stick with it."
Eric: Full disclosure here, I did consider Tomlinson and Alexander 1 and 1a last season, but I would've taken Tomlinson first. Frankly, I don't recall having either guy in any league. I picked ninth so many times, I developed a hatred for Willis McGahee and Jamal Lewis around midseason. But thanks anyway. OK, tomorrow it's the Closer Report for fantasy baseball. Adios.