NFL Postseason Probabilities

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
X-Files went 3-for-3 with his predictions on the Bengals, Dolphins and Cardinals NOT making the playoffs.

All three teams are now eliminated from the postseason after Week 13 action in the NFL.
 
#5
Man those were going way out on a limb. What was the no price on the Dolphins, -800?
Free money is free money. Why refuse it. LOL.

If i recall the line near closing time was higher than -10,000 at Pinnacle.

6537 Miami Dolphins, to make the playoffs? No! -1250, @ Betonline here:

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nfl-playoff-specials

This is a great value bet. The line is -2542 at Pinnacle with the yes being +1210 there. Should IMO be more like -5000.

BTW Pinnacle has the Miami season win total at under 4.5 -126. Miami is also the favorite to have the worst NFL record of all teams.
http://forums.eog.com/index.php?threads/eogs-best-bet-thread-for-tuesday-september-3.7463671/


6501 Arizona Cardinals, to make the playoffs? No! -650, @ Betonline

Comment/reason why: Pinnacle has the "no" bet as -927 & "yes" at +636. Arizona's odds to win their division are +2795 & to win the super bowl +13295. The odds put Arizona in contention with Miami to be the team with the worst NFL record this season. Their season win total is listed as over/under 5.
6513 Bengals to make playoffs? No! -650 @ Betonline
Pinnacle has the "yes" @ +838, "no" -1368.

X-Files 0-0 0.00 UNITS (Miami Dolphins -1250, Arizona Cardinals -650 and Cincinnati Bengals -650 to NOT make the NFL postseason)
http://forums.eog.com/index.php?threads/eogs-best-bet-thread-for-monday-september-9.7463738/

X-Files 3-0, +3.00 units, 100% winners ;

Just win, baby!
 
#6
An intriguing long shot is Tenn.
Did you make a bet, Fair?

Titans:

+5000 to win Super Bowl (Betonline)
+300 to win division (Betonline)
+118 to make playoffs, yes, -143, no, (888Sport)

Yet the OP link says only 28% chance to make the postseason, which would imply, if correct, that the -143 above a great bet.

They close the regular season with games vs the Raiders, Saints & Texans (twice).
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#7
Did you make a bet, Fair?

Titans:

+5000 to win Super Bowl (Betonline)
+300 to win division (Betonline)
+118 to make playoffs, yes, -143, no, (888Sport)

Yet the OP link says only 28% chance to make the postseason, which would imply, if correct, that the -143 above a great bet.

They close the regular season with games vs the Raiders, Saints & Texans (twice).
50/1 seems a little light, my friend has a 5 dimes account - i'll see what they have. I would think they would be 75/1.
 
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