The Chase

[FullyEclipsed]

Re: The Chase

personally i love the discussion. looks like some good numbers on the fish..... the only snag may be in the juice... laying (-1.30) or so, several times in a row, may cause that last bet (6th bet) in your chase to be really large. that juice will push those bets. make sure your book or books will take that last bet, if you have to make it.

also wanted to tell Coachp, if your reading this....... the Chase wager or the Action Chase wager, will always have to be an "Action" bet, as its solely based on the teams (O/U) performance.

back thursday morning, before the day games start..

You are 100% correct on the wager limits. Prop bet that only has a $300 limit at both my books. Would hardly be worth playing for such a small amount.

I still think there is something here though. I ran 06 Marlins and the numbers were brought back to reality with 91 Yes scores and 71 No score. The longest streak was a 7th game. Series total 47-5.

Maybe it has to be treated as The regular chase..?.. 3 Yes/No (depending on team) in a row trigger the betting..

I'm on both Sea/Balt with you.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

FE, i thought that would be a problem with the prop bet (limit), when your talking about a 6 deep martingale.

i did manage to run (May 2007) with the (Runline Chase), so that gives me 3 months worth now (april & may 07, along with april 08)

april 07: 14-0
may 07: 17-0 (Two 4 game losing streaks but no 5)
april 08: 13-0 (with the tiger win today)
combined: 44-0

Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40)
(13-0 for april 08)

the tigers came thru for me today. looking back thru the back data, many days this may be a judgement call, when your comparing (-1.71) to (-1.75) and there is still 5 minutes to first pitch.

in those cases, im going to just make up my mind and go with it. i realize this will take some of the mechanical aspect away from it but i have no choice as i dont want to sit and wait, every day to the last minute.

back later.

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Great job on the Tigers-- You and Fully are looking into great stuff. Thanks again and good luck to all of us tonight.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

so far, i have no data, telling me that the (Runline Chase) wont be succuessful.

april 07: 14-0
may 07: 17-0
june 07: 13-0
april 08: 13-0

pretty good numbers but still that one loss will be a killer, then we have the regular (Chase) thats lost only one time since the 2005 season.

if for some reason, i cant post every single day, no one will need me for these 2, as they are mechanical.

im still looking for one more mechanical angle (system) to play for baseball, thats if -- i dont stick with the (Action Chase)......

then im off to the NHL and NBA for research, to use next season. the whole process for me, is shifting to this style of play...

back later.

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Mets over!

Thanks!

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Re: The Chase

Things are looking good. Always nice when 2 teams meet going for the same direction we needed on both.. And it hits...

The R/L chase is a great one. The thing that worries me the most with it is you do have to make some judgment calls as to who is going to be the biggest favorite when it goes off the board.

Out of curiosity have you tracked how deep each chase has gone on the R/L chase? If they haven't been going too deep it could definitely leave some room for human error..

Side note for you and coachp, I am still coming up with my game plan on the 1st inning chase. I am disappointed in the limited bets but I may just have to get a 3rd book to play for a higher amount. (I'll start a new thread when it's ready to go.)

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Thanks Fully- Like I told SSI- I should have more time in the coming months - but tied up now and you two are saving me a lot of time by doing all of this work. Thanks to both of you for helping me.

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Oh, not to only saving me time- but I would have never come up with anything like this. Thanks guys!

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

dont thank me until we can get over (70 wins)...

Here is where we sit, coming into friday april 25th.

The Chase: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (+$220)(324-1 since 2005)

nothing pending and no plays tonight. an unusally high % of our plays are ending after the 4th game, thus ending out shot at a play. couple of setups tonight, we need texas to play an Over tonight.

Action Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40) (totally opionated)

ill post a play later today, ive got it narrowed to 2 but i will only have one of these open at a time, since this is not mechanical. nothing is pending here either, as the Mets blew Over the posted total last night.


Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40)

this is probably going to be profitable but its going to be slightly subjective, at the moment, it appears our play tonight will either be the (wsox or brewers) as both are at home and both sit around (-1.60) at the moment, im leaning (Wsox) and today, i can only wait until (3:30 pm cst) to make the call, as im going out tonight.... but im very comfortable in playing it, in this fashion.. nothing pending here.


on a side note, i was using this, in a thread in the nba room, entitled "Pattern Betting". i posted 9 Patterns and 8 are now closed with a Win. The remaining one left open, is a play on the (Spurs Under) and coincidentally, they have played (5 straight Overs) now. so if your following this, i highly suggest looking at a (Spurs Under) tonight but this is only my suggestion and totally off the record.

back later today, with the 2 plays.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

i mis-spoke in my last post. i was not using the spurs Under, in the Pattern Betting Test. i was using the Mavericks and all they need to do, is beat the Line in of the next 2....

However, the information was correct. the Spurs have played 5 straight Overs and are still guaranteed (4 more games, minimum)...

back later.

 

[munson15]

Re: The Chase

Are you still running the dogs +1.20 to +1.70? I like the looks of this runline chase. Thanks, and keep up the good work.:cheers

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Just saw the NBA post- You have had a great week. Good luck with your reserarch. Thanks again.

 

[The General]

Re: The Chase

SSI, Thank you for your posting ol' friend. I've always read your ideas since connecting with you on the net.

Take care my friend.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

thanks guys (General Pete).... i basically enjoy kicking around ideas.... soon and ever so slowly, im going to be moving my base bet up from ($20)... i probably wont even mention it here.

CoachP, its been a good week, just too bad the wagers are small.

Munson.... i stopped playing the dogs but i still have the records from the day that i stopped and you can easily see how its done by looking at Covers. if i get some time today, ill give you an update. The dog plays are really not for me, i have trouble taking all the Losses... Im not saying it cant be profitable, im saying its "Not my cup of tea". Ill try and get you an update.

as for the R/L Chase... it had Zero losses in (april, may, june of 07) and so far no losses in april 2008...... cant get much better than that......... unless you compare it to the regular (Chase), One Loss since 2005.

ive got to wrap this up by (3:30 pm) today, so ill be back soon.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

Action Chase 3
a) Pirates Over 9.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

play on the Pirates to go Over the posted total in one of next 6 games.

Back later with the (R/L) Chase, its looking like the WSOX for me in that, also highly recommend a chase on the (Spurs Under).

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Oh yes- if we knew then (a week ago) what we know now!!!! Yeah- it would have been great to have bet more- but would've - could've - should've...

Thanks again!

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

CoachP, its hard to go up much --- because of what it will do to that 6th bet. playing for only $20 will cause the 6th bet to be over $800... I could allocate more money to this project, as i can get down with a local for 2k per game but we are in the beginning phases of what i hope is going to be a long and profitable process.

If we make it to say (20-0), im probably going to move up to a base play of ($25)...

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

ive got to finish this off for friday april 25

The Chase: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (+$220) (324-1 since 2005)

nothing pending and no-plays for friday.


Action Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40) (totally opinion)

Action Chase 3
a) Pirates Over 9.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20
play on the pirates to go (Over) the posted total in one of next 6 games.

Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40)(13-0 on the season)

Runline Chase 3
a) Whitesox -1.5 (+1.30) $15.40 to win $20

small risk today and im comfortable with the play. ive got to go out and i dont know if ill make it back before first pitch, so this is the best i can do today and what ill be playing.

also highly recommend that if you are taking part in the chase to play the spurs (Under) the total tonight. im on the Under 195 but this is totally off the record.

back later tonight or saturday.

good luck with your wagers.

 

[munson15]

Re: The Chase

Thanks and GL, SSI! Always appreciate the info.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

Munson, here is the info you asked about.

according to covers closing lines.

dogs from (+1.20)(+1.70): 74-99 (42.8%) (+3.49 units)
that is thru 4/24 and doesnt include tonight.

another FYI...... Home teams in the nba playoffs (14-6) ats, with dallas and phoenix pending tonight.

the Pattern betting test i was running in the nba room, is doing well... if dallas hangs on, it will be (9-0) (+9.00 units) in the nba playoffs and id be adding spurs Under 195, as Pattern 10.

also bet the Penguins (-1.40) to win the series, against the rangers.

really good stretch right now.

Action Chase, cashes easily tonight, running that to (3-0), with nothing pending.

rain in Chicago, will it end...

back on saturday, to update everything. the rangers Under will be a play tomorrow in our regular Chase, as they have now played 5 straight Overs.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

here is where i sit (with the Chases) heading into saturday april 26

The Chase: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (324-1 since 2005)

one play for saturday april 26

Chase 12
a) Texas (Under)
this is a night game and im going to wait until later to turn it in. ill repost before the first pitch. right now its Baker and Ponson listed.. hate to play a Ponson start Under but have to go with the Chase. back later with this one.




Action Chase: 3-0 (+3.00 units) (totally opinionated)

one play at a time. saturdays play.

Action Chase 4
a) Orioles Over 9.5 (+1.00) Game 1 of DH.

if this play is a loser, ill be on the (Over) in the 2nd half of this DH tonight.



Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (13-0 on the season)

Runline Chase 3
a) Dodgers -1.5 (+1.20) $16.67 to win $20... Penny/Redman must go...





so, to sum it up......... were waiting until later today, to play the Rangers Under........ were on the Orioles Over in game 1 of the DH and if its a loser, we double down for game 2.............. and were on the dodgers (RL) with Penny/Redman going in the very late game tonight...


off the record, if anyone is interested....... ill be Pattern Betting (Chasing), the Canadiens (Under the total) and the Redwings (Under the total) in the NHL......... as well as the Celtics (Over the total) in the NBA...... prepared to go at least 4 deep with all of them......... been experimenting with this (Pattern Betting) in the NBA Playoffs: (9-0)(+9.00 units) with the Spurs Under heading to play (b)..........

moving everything to this style of play..

back later, good luck with your wagers......

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

i was sitting in my office this morning, kicking around some goals that i have for this style of bettting, that for lack of a better word, ill call "Pattern Betting".... which is actually a chase in either a 4 or 6 game format.... here are some of the numbers that i came up with and remember these are merely my goals.

MLB 2008:
The Chase: (+70 units)
Runline Chase: (+70 units)
Action Chase: (+70 units)
Pattern betting in playoffs: (+10 units)
Series Bets for playoffs: (+3 units) larger wagers (10 X normal chase wagers)

NBA 2008-09
The Chase: (+50 units)
Action Chase: (+50 units)
Pattern Betting in playoffs: (+20 units)
Series Bets for playoffs: (+5 units) larger wagers

NHL 2008-09
The Chase: (+50 units)
Action Chase: (+50 units)
Pattern Betting in playoffs: (+20 units)
Series Bets for playoffs: (+5 units) larger wagers

NFL 2008
Action Chase: (+30 units)

NCAAF 2008
Action Chase: (+30 units)

NCAAB 2008
Action Chase: (+30 units)
SEC HC System: (+10 units)

would be nice to come anywhere close......

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Keep it up SSI - Thanks again for sharing. I will try to watch your threads all over- but I appreciate filling us in on the baseball thread. Have a great weekend.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

adding for saturday night april 26

Action Chase 4
b) Baltimore Over 9.5 (-1.10) $44 to win $40 (Game 2 of DH)


Chase 12
a) Texas Under 10 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

back later..

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

winner on Action Chase 4 (2nd game of DH goes Over) provided they finish.

Action Chase: 4-0 (+4.00 units)(totally opionated)

play for sunday april 27

Action Chase 5
a) Yankees Over 9.5 (+1.00) $20 to win $20 (Wang/Sabitha)
this is a Chase on the Yankees to go Over the posted total in one of next 6 games.

side note, will be on that Spurs Under (play b) sunday, they are now on a streak of 6 straight Overs and they are guaranteed to play at least 4 more and probably more than that. also came up loser on both Hockey Unders today, will chase both detroit and montreal (Unders) in their next game.

wouldnt be fun now, if we won them all in game 1, would it?

back on sunday.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

ok guys, got to do this very early on sunday, may not be around much at all today. here is where i sit, coming into sunday april 27

The Chase: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (closed chases only)

plays for sunday april 27

Chase 12
b) Rangers Under 9.5 (+1.00) $42 to win $42

Chase 13
a) Dodgers Under 9 (+1.00) $20 to win $20




Action Chase: 4-0 (+4.00 units) (+$80)

play for sunday april 27

Action Chase 5
a) Yanks Over 9.5 (+1.00) $20 to win $20




Runline Chase: 3-0 (+3.00 units) (+$60)

play for sunday april 27

Runline Chase 4
a) Brewers -1.5 (+1.30) $15.38 to win $20




that is all today, along with my play on the Spurs Under (play b)...


good luck with your wagers.

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Thanks- Love the yankees- hell- like all your stuff. GL today.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

Yanks cant score for crap, coach.......... they have been an Under machine this year...... oh well on to monday.

that last run by the rangers, hurt today. otherwise it would have been a nice day.....

still a very good run for me, even though the Units are small (at the moment), here is where we sit headed to monday.


The Chase: 12-0 (+12.00 units) (+$240) (325-1 since 2005 season) with one series left open and headed to play (c) on tuesday. its the rangers Under. some of you could have pushed that total today, my local had it Under 10. i dont know if anything starts on monday or not, ill look sometime monday.

Action Chase: 4-0 (+4.00 units) (+$80) with the Yankees Over still pending and heading to play (b) on monday night.

Runline Chase: 3-0 (+3.00 units) (+$60) with play (b) pending, ill be on the biggest favorite on the RL on monday for the play (b). this concept is on a (58-0 run) at least, this is counting only (april, may, june 07) and (april 08)


really pleased with all this, at this moment.

also i finished off the "Pattern Betting" for the first round of the NBA playoffs today, as that Spurs (Under) cashed, way to just die in the 4th today.

Pattern Betting: 11-0 (+11.00 units) not too bad for the first round of the nba playoffs, nothing else in the nba until the 2nd rounds start. cannot complain about an (11-0) record for the playoffs.


first series bet: Penguins (-1.40) for some large money is looking really good at the moment.... im open for suggestions on any new series in either the nba or nhl....... this is the final piece of my puzzle.

back on monday.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

just going to go ahead and turn this in tonight.

plays for monday april 28

Action Chase 5
b) Yankees Over 10.5 (-1.10) $44 to win $40

Runline Chase 4
b) Mets -1.5 (-1.05) $37.15 to win $35.38

there are no plays in the regular (Chase) on monday. we will pick up with the Rangers (Under) play (c) on tuesday..... there are also 3 teams that have reached 4 game streaks (all Unders) (clev, stl, hou) and we will be watching those on monday.

appears to be a pretty quiet day. probably nothing else on my agenda monday.

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

I thought the Yanks would wake up today- oh well- lets get 'em Monday-- Thanks

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

rainout for the mets.

replacing for the RL Chase

Runline Chase 4
b) AZ -1.5 (+1.15) $30.76 to win $35.38

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Re: The Chase

I'm going to jump in on this R/L chase. Things are a bit slow today on my end.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

FE, nice day to jump in. currently (15-0) on the season and (58-0) for my back testing.

BIG DAY today, here is where we sit on the (Chases)

The Chase: 12-0 (+12.00 units) (325-1 since 2005 season)

currently (1 Chase open) (Chase 12) and its headed to play (C) tonight, we will be on the Rangers Under.

there are also (4) new Chases opening tonight.

Ill be back later today, to post all the lines, going to wait a little while today.




Action Chase: 4-0 (+4.00 units) (total opinion)

currently i have Action Chase 5 open and heading to play (C), ill be on the Yanks Over tonight, will post lines later.



Runline Chase: 4-0 (+4.00 units) (nothing pending) (15-0 on the season)

will post the play for tonight, this afternoon.




Also (1-0) on Pattern NHL betting, as the mont/phil series, went Under the total last night. still have a big (Penguins) series bet pending.

1st Round of NBA Playoffs, went (11-0) with nothing pending, on an experimental basis, but ive since moved to playing it for real money, will be ready for round 2, when they start.


back this afternoon with all the Lines for a big card tonight.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

here is my card for tuesday april 29

The Chase;

Chase 12
c) Texas Under 10.5 (-1.10) $93 to win $84

Chase 14
a) Indians Over 8.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

Chase 15
a) Rays Over 9 (-1.20) $24 to win $20

Chase 16
a) Cards Over 8.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

Chase 17
a) Houston Over 9.5 (-1.30) $26 to win $20 (greek)


big day for the (Chase)




Action Chase:

Action Chase 5
c) Yankees Over 10 (-1.10) $93 to win $84




Runline Chase:

Runline Chase 5
a)Mets -1.5 (+1.00) $22 to win $20




i also have the (redwings/av's Under 5 (+1.00) ) going tonight on play (b).


good luck with your wagers.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Re: The Chase

I agree was a nice time to jump in. Looks like a full card today with all the regular chases. Will be nice if we can knock the Texas under off..

 

[coachp]

Re: The Chase

Good luck tonight SSI- Across the board! Feel like I am playing craps and have every number covered- just waiting for the roll of the dice....... I love craps!

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

FE, i need that one and the yankees.

here is some info from 2007 on the Runline Chase, going strictly by closing lines at Covers.

april 07: 14-0
may 07: 17-0
june 07: 13-0
july 07: 15-0
aug 07: 19-0
sept 07: 17-0

overall MLB 2007: 95-0 (+95 units)

by simply playing the (Runline Chase) last year.

you want to know the closest call to a Loss..... go back to July of last year, losses on the (16, 17, 18, 19 and 20) thats 5 in a row, we roll into July 21 and we have the tigers -1.5 (-1.10) against the lowly royals. the tigers lead (8-6) going to the top of the 9th.... KC scores 2 to tie it at 8 and the game proceeds to go to extra innings, where only a walkoff can win it for us. detroit hits a 2 run walkoff in the bottom of the 10th, to give us a 2 run win and thus ending the closest call to a loss, all of last year.. in fact it was the only time all season, that it went to a 6th and final game.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Re: The Chase

Good luck tonight SSI- Across the board! Feel like I am playing craps and have every number covered- just waiting for the roll of the dice....... I love craps!

Very good way of putting it. I feel the same way today. If I counted all of my individual chases it would probably reach into the 20's.

Good luck tonight guys.

 

[FullyEclipsed]

Re: The Chase

FE, i need that one and the yankees.

here is some info from 2007 on the Runline Chase, going strictly by closing lines at Covers.

april 07: 14-0
may 07: 17-0
june 07: 13-0
july 07: 15-0
aug 07: 19-0
sept 07: 17-0

overall MLB 2007: 95-0 (+95 units)

by simply playing the (Runline Chase) last year.

you want to know the closest call to a Loss..... go back to July of last year, losses on the (16, 17, 18, 19 and 20) thats 5 in a row, we roll into July 21 and we have the tigers -1.5 (-1.10) against the lowly royals. the tigers lead (8-6) going to the top of the 9th.... KC scores 2 to tie it at 8 and the game proceeds to go to extra innings, where only a walkoff can win it for us. detroit hits a 2 run walkoff in the bottom of the 10th, to give us a 2 run win and thus ending the closest call to a loss, all of last year.. in fact it was the only time all season, that it went to a 6th and final game.

Wow! That is what the chase is all about on that one. Just think about sitting and watching that game in disgust until that ball goes over the wall.

 

[SSI]

Re: The Chase

Man the Penguins are playing lights out. If nothing changes, ill be on them in the eastern finals and the finals.

Come on Tigers, score some more, Yankees cant.