The Official SB Props Thread

#45
No off-switch on genius.

Up from 24½ somewhere. I like it. But remember you have to consider Sacks.

Mahomes has 53 rushing yards in each of his playoff games this season and has run the ball 7, 7, and 8 times in his last three games. He is now back to full health and will do everything in his power to win the Super Bowl, which includes risking a big hit while running.6 hours ago

It's 29½ on my Station Casinos sheet. Jimmy G at 4½. No respect for EIU.
 
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#47
No off-switch on genius.

Up from 24½ somewhere. I like it. But remember you have to consider Sacks.

Mahomes has 53 rushing yards in each of his playoff games this season and has run the ball 7, 7, and 8 times in his last three games. He is now back to full health and will do everything in his power to win the Super Bowl, which includes risking a big hit while running.6 hours ago

It's 29½ on my Station Casinos sheet. Jimmy G at 4½. No respect for EIU.
The 49ers are a zone team. He has run wild against man to man teams. That number is so low for a reason. It is a prop on the most popular player in the game. Also how do sacks impact this?

The way mahomes scrambles in the pocket he could easily have two sacks from bosa for -20 yards.

What is the last memory for people when you think of mahomes rushing? Its his long rushing td before the half. People see 29 yards for a prop and say "he got that on one rush last game. Easy money."

Its never easy.
 
#48
And if they get behind too much, he may be forced to pass. I think Shanahan tries to shorten game by rushing Mostert to death and keeping KC D on field. All up to KC D. If they stack box, he could bolt around them early for a long one. Chiefs LBs need to play great. SF seems to like to block also. They will play up Underdog role although this is a classic toss-up Pick 'em in my eyes. Probably late Niners money to come in starting Saturday once they feel all perceived KC "Square" money in.

This should be a great game to just watch.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#49
The 49ers are a zone team. He has run wild against man to man teams. That number is so low for a reason. It is a prop on the most popular player in the game. Also how do sacks impact this?

The way mahomes scrambles in the pocket he could easily have two sacks from bosa for -20 yards.

What is the last memory for people when you think of mahomes rushing? Its his long rushing td before the half. People see 29 yards for a prop and say "he got that on one rush last game. Easy money."

Its never easy.
The Niners are a deep zone team. Tough to beat on deep passes. But if anything, the middle of the field should be vulnerable to a QB scramble. Jackson, Wilson and Murray all did some run damage to their defense. And Mahomes did very little running in the weeks following his injury so his year to date stats were kept down.

Sacks count against rush yardage in college but are separated in NFL stats.
 
#51
Super Bowl LIV Propositions
913 Will the San Francisco 49ers Convert a 4th Down Attempt? Yes -105
(Station Casinos)

This Prop, the San Francisco 49ers and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (7/2 to Win Super Bowl LIV MVP, Station Casinos) to Convert on a 4th Down Attempt seems simple genius by nature of Super Bowl LIV and it’s do-or-die at the worst possible point in the season reality. In this Postseason, SF didn’t have a 4th Down attempt vs the Cheesecurds in the NFC Championship Game and were 0-for-1 on 4th Down vs the Purple People Eaters while during the 2019 NFL Regular Season, the 49ers went for it on 4th Down only 12 times, converting on 7 of them (53.85%, #10).

Noteworthy to serious Super Bowl Props bettors is the reality is that the 12 4th Down Attempts by NFC champions San Francisco looks like the 2nd lowest in the NFL—KC has only 10 4th Down Attempts—but the 71.43% efficiency away from Frisco has to appeal to “Yes” backers in this market and Shanahan will pull out what he has to if trailing or maybe Inches away from keeping Possession. I have $10 to win $8.70. All Art (but no Manteris) and gut and last game philosophy.

Having a guy like Raheem Mostert, #2 in the NFL in YPC, to give the football to on 4th Down is a huge edge for Shanahan and OC Curtis Modkins and a Fake Punt always happens on 4th Down and the 49ers snapped it to the up-man back in 2014 on 4th to pick up 3 yards on their own end of the Field vs KC and were 2-for-2 on 4th vs Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs when they met in KC last season in 2018 (KC 38 SF 27).
 
#53
Super Bowl LIV Propositions
227 Will Travis Kelce Score A Least 1 TD? Yes -115
(Station Casinos)

6:30 pm EST/3:30 pm PST (FOX)—Good hands and being targeted when in the Red Zone are two characteristics one would want in a Prop like this, as well as Expectations from the player to score a TD, for his team, his own legacy and his Memory Bank so when he’s 67 and using a red-and-yellow Cane and theoretically "old" he can remember back to that day in Miami Gardens in 2020 when NFL Hall of Famer Pat Mahomes flicked him a TD pass at Hard Rock Stadium. We are all the exact Age we are meant to be and always have been.

Of course the man involved in this Prop—TE Travis Kelce—will be living with all of the rest of us on The Dark Side Of The Moon after the Oceans will have risen to Mount Everest’s navel when Kelce is 67. But don’t worry. We’ll still be able to bet.

Kelce (14/1 to Win Super Bowl LIV MVP, Station Casinos) only scored 5 TDs during the 2019 NFL Regular Season despite some decent numbers (97 Receptions, 1,229 yards) and the 6-5, 265-pound product of Cincinnati was targeted 136 times by prolific Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Kansas City Offense (28.2 ppg, #5 NFL).
In these NFL Playoffs, Kelce’s proven ability to catch TDs has been turned up a notch, with him being targeted 16 times, catching 13 of them for 3 TDs (12.6 ypc) as his Chiefs captured the AFC crown. Kelce has also picked up 10 First Downs in the Playoffs and fumbled just once all year.

Common Sense says that the 30-year-old Kelce is targeted between 5 to 8 times in this game, with maybe 2 or 3 of those Passing Attempts in the End Zone going to the excitable TE who would desperately love to bring Kansas City its first NFL championship since 1970 when my boy Otis Taylor shrugged off any tacklers and ran, ran, ran like 49ers TE George Kittle (12/1 to win SB LIV MVP) does with dudes holding onto his Facemask. No one in NFL history has more yards gained with idiots holding onto their Facemask than George Kittle.

Anyway, I think I’d bet this under all circumstances as few players seem so TD conscious when it matters as Kelce opened at +110 and was bet down to -115. Mahomes, Kelce and Roadrunner Tyreek Hill (15/1 to win Super Bowl MVP) get the 3 TDs I see for KC with 2 FGs making hem end on 27 (9/1 Exact Number of Points Chiefs, Station Casinos). I have $10 (USD) on this to trytrtry to win $8.70. Good stuff ComptrBob. I am wondering if that applies to NCAAF as well?

49ers 36 Chiefs 27


 
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#55
Super Bowl LIV Propositions
437/438 Tyreek Hill First Pass Reception Over 12½ Yards -120
(Station Casinos)

6:30 pm EST/3:30 pm PST (FOX)—Speedster Tyreek Hill usually runs the longest pass routes for the AFC champion Kansas City Offense (28.2 ppg, #5 NFL) with TE Travis Kelce (14/1 to Win Super Bowl LIV MVP, Station Casinos) the good-hands, 4th Down/Red Zone TD guy and fellow starting Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (4.43 40-yard Dash at NFL Combine) more of a mid-range target.

One of the fastest players in the NFL—the Oklahoma State product has run the 100 meters in 9.98 seconds—Hill averaged 14.8 ypc during the NFL Regular Season snagging 58 catches for 860 yards and 7 TDs. In the Postseason, the 5-10, 185-pound waterbug has also averaged more than the 12.5 yards the Prop is asking for here with his first Reception in Super Bowl LIV with 8 Receptions for 108 yards (13.5 ypc). His long during the RS was 57 and his longest catch in the Postseason was 26. The 25-year-old Hill has 2 TDs these Playoffs and has averaged 14.6 ypc over his NFL career.

A shorter pattern or a 10- to 12-yard catch seem like the only thing preventing this one-and-done Prop from going Over. QB Patrick Mahomes will want to try to hit Hill deep early in the first 2 sets of Downs, and YAC for Hill seem a given with his Track star ability to get his feet moving fast. Hill, and WR Mecole Hardman (20.8 ypc) will be two blurs the 49ers must deal with on Sunday as Hardman clocked a 4.34 4-yard Dash time at the NFL Combine and the dangerous Hill is fast as fuck and then some (4.28 and 4.29 40-yard Dashes on Pro Day). Hill's first Pass catch could very well be a TD and if it comes from 12 yards out or less, I will cry like a baby.

Some other Tyreek Hill related Props from Station Casinos: Tyreek Hill To Score First TD (8/1); Tyreek Hill To Score Last TD (8/1); Will Tyreek Hill TD Have a TD Catch? (Yes +110); Tyreek Hill to be Super Bowl MVP (15/1); Will Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce Both Score At Least 1 TD? (Yes +350). I will post this in the Best Bets thread on Wednesday.
 
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#56
What will happen first, a Chiefs punt or score? Punt (-120)
Damien Williams Over 50.5 rush yds (-115)
Will their be a 2 point attempt? Yes (+110)
 
#57
Super Bowl LIV Propositions
207 Will Raheem Mostert Score at Least One TD Yes -180
(Station Casinos)

6:30 pm EST/3:30 pm PST (FOX)—ESPN tells me Fantasy Players have Raheem Mostert ranked #20 at his position (RB), so I am glad, possibly sad, that I have not embarked in this modern gambling goofiness where you are pulling for a butterfly in Mexico to turn right while also rooting for a porpoise in the Gulf of Mexico to turn left, all within the span of 4 minutes and 32 seconds or something. I can think of no other NFL RBs I would rather have on my side at this point in time than the speedy Mostert, who is turning it up at the right point in the long NFL season and who will no doubt be a huge part of the San Francisco Offensive plan.




Against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship, Mostert got the ball 29 times and had 220 yards Rushing (7.6 ypc) for 4 TDs. Four. Like The Beatles and Pink Floyd and Led Zeppelin and Mount Rushmore. And Twix bars. Four.

So Shanahan will tell Jimmy G to give the Purdue workhorse the ball, especially from like 8 yards in from the End Zone as he is best suited to score Rushing TDs for the Niners and nobody wants their QB running and hurt. If San Francisco can only manage 2 TDs, Mostert should get one. And if they have 4 as I believe it will, then he will probably have 2 and that’s at least one one my book and at the sportsbook window. The window matters. Kobe Bryant knew about the importance of making sure he got himself and his teammates to the window.

This one went up from the -155 odds from Monday and is now -180 at PS (I bet $18 to try to win $10). If I had to pick only one player who I would think would surely score in Super Bowl LIV, it would be Raheem Mosert. Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce would probably be neck-and-neck for second. Mostert could run wild and win MVP if the Chiefs Defense fail to slow his current flow. It’s good when players are just feeling good about themselves and their game and looking forward to the biggest spotlight in their lives. Mostert is near that pinnacle moment.
 
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#60
Super Bowl LIV Propositions
277 Patrick Mahomes Total Rushing Yards 30½ Over -150
(Station Casinos)

6:30 pm EST/5:30 CST/4:30 MST/3:30 pm PST (FOX)—Someone here said that this was Fezzik’s favorite Prop pick, and after a clarification from ComptrBob that Sacks are not figured into the Rushing totals in the NFL, I just backed the Over 30½o -150 for $30 to win $20 on Super Sunday in the Patrick Mahomes Total Rushing Yards Prop. Despite his success against top-level Defenses (10-1 SU), the talented Chiefs QB has not faced a rush D quite the 49ers and could be up against it early with dudes like Joey Bosa in his Facemask.

Too many people say Jimmy Guh-RAFF-uh-low. I see no fucking “f,” fools. Even if he wins (his third) Super Bowl, idiots will still say Jimmy G’s name wrong, but then again we have Physicists who say NUKE-U-LERR and y’all have been to the DMV so you already have known for some time that we are doomed. So if you knew we were doomed, wouldn’t you bet Props? When Don Hutson caught footballs and Red Grange ran, few bet on the NFL and there was no Super Bowl yet. We have actually come so far that we are now going backwards with Commercials and Shakira and Gatorade and shit getting more slice than the Final Score. The Final Score here will determine the NFL champions this year and make either the city of Kansas City or San Francisco really, really happy. And Happy is good.

Anyway, when Pressure is applied, Mahomes can, and will run and the way the Chiefs have fallen behind of late may mean the KC QB may have to scramble out of the pocket to trytrytry to get precious First Downs and the 6-3, 230-Texas Tech legend could very well rush for 30 yards off of broken plays and scrambles alone. Toss in the probable 2 to 3 QB Draws or rushes the Chiefs plan out for the athletic Mahomes, and he could get the needed 30 (for the Over) from designed plays also.

I am unsure if this number is (perceived) off at 29½, but knowing what ComptrBob said about Sack yardage (doesn’t count) combined with the Situation. Mahomes’ Health and semi-Speed (4.80 40-yard Dash), this number seems significantly off. Like 12-20 yards off. Mahomes only rushed for 213 yards on 43 carries (5.1 ypc) during the Regular Season as the Pass-happy AFC champions preferred to try to get to the SB by Air (483 Passing attempts) rather than by Land (Rushing) or by Sea (Defense).

Like Raheem Mostert turning it up a notch for the 49ers in this Postseason, Mahomes has turned up his Rushing game, easily rushing for more than 30 yards in KC's two Playoff games—finishing with 53 yards on 8 rushes vs. the Tennessee Titties in the AFC Championship Game (8.4 ypc) and also getting 53 yards on 7 rushes vs the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Playoffs (9.2 ypc) round. Even if San Fran plays great, Mahomes could run for more than 50 yards, and could win his wager with one good rush.

"I am unsure if this number is (perceived) off at 29½..."
and
"..this number seems significantly off. Like 12-20 yards off."


In the same paragraph.
So which is it, Squirrel Boy??????????????????????????
 
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#63
ACTUAL PROPS BET LOG WITH ACTUAL NUMBERS AND ACTUAL BET AMOUNTS

277 Patrick Mahomes Total Rushing Yards 30½ Over -150 (Palace Station) $30-20
207 Will Raheem Mostert Score at Least One TD Yes -180 (Palace Station) $18-10
227 Will Travis Kelce Score A Least 1 TD? Yes -115 (
Palace Station) $11½-10
2963 Raheem Mostert to win SB LIV MVP 6/1 (
Palace Station) $10-60
2983 Robbie Gould to win SB LIV MVP 100/1 (Palace
Station) $5-500

185/186 Total FGs Both Teams Over 3½ +105 (Palace Station) $10-10½
437/438 Tyreek Hill First Pass Reception Over 12½ Yards Yes -120 (Palace S
tation) $12-10

913 Will the San Francisco 49ers Convert a 4th Down Attempt? Yes -105 (Palace Station) $10½-10

Will Both Teams Make a 33+ Yard FG? Yes -120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) >No Bet Yet, EOG Pick

Total Risk Amount: $108 on 8 Super Bowl LIV Props Wagers
 
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#66
49ers L8 Opponents: GB (Made PLAYOFFS), MINN (Made PLAYOFFS), SEA (Made PLAYOFFS), LA RAMS (Def NFC Champs), ATL (Falcons won), SAINTS (Made PLAYOFFS), RAVENS (Made PLAYOFFS), PACKERS (Made PLAYOFFS)

CHIEFS L8 Opponents: TITANS (Made PLAYOFFS), TEXANS (Made PLAYOFFS), CHARGERS (5-11), BEARS (8-8), BRONCOS (7-9), PATRIOTS (Def SB champions), RAIDERS (7-9), CHARGERS (5-11)
 
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#67
Matt Youmans just gave out the Prop on Daily Wager that actually seems like the best one to me but unsure of the sportsbook and I haven't seen it. It's Chiefs to PUNT (EVEN) before they SCORE (-120). Seems like great value to me.

FanDuel took a $347,000 bet on Under for KC RB Damian Williams Rushing Yards 53½
MGM Grand in Las Vegas took Alternate Line bet on Over 42½, $450,000 to win $100,000
 
#68
The 12 Most Hyped-Up Things in Modern USA Culture

1—The Digital Age (5G, Smartphones)
2—US Presidential Elections
3—The Stock Markets
4—The Super Bowl
5—In ‘N Out
6—Lawyers
7 (Tie)—The Kardashians-Kanye West
7 (Tie)—Big Pharma Pills You’ve Never Heard Of
9—Beer and Alcohol
10—Vaping
11—Coronavirus Fears
12—Jennifer Lopez
 

Heim

EOG Master
#72
The 49ers are a zone team. He has run wild against man to man teams. That number is so low for a reason. It is a prop on the most popular player in the game. Also how do sacks impact this?

The way mahomes scrambles in the pocket he could easily have two sacks from bosa for -20 yards.

What is the last memory for people when you think of mahomes rushing? Its his long rushing td before the half. People see 29 yards for a prop and say "he got that on one rush last game. Easy money."

Its never easy.

I played over 28.5. He averages 30 for the season and the Niners if you look don't contain running Qbs well. Plus they never blitz. I think it's
30.5 at most places now. I just thought it was a good number.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#73
The 49ers are a zone team. He has run wild against man to man teams. That number is so low for a reason. It is a prop on the most popular player in the game. Also how do sacks impact this?

The way mahomes scrambles in the pocket he could easily have two sacks from bosa for -20 yards.

What is the last memory for people when you think of mahomes rushing? Its his long rushing td before the half. People see 29 yards for a prop and say "he got that on one rush last game. Easy money."

Its never easy.
Totally agree. Went under 32.5. He runs against man to man teams where the back 7 has their backs to the QB. SF keeps everything in front of them.
Also took both teams to win by -10. KC -315, SF -360, Think that one one of the dominant units, SF's D or KC's O, dominate the game. Gun to head, think it'll be SF D.
 

kane

EOG master
#76
Matt Youmans just gave out the Prop on Daily Wager that actually seems like the best one to me but unsure of the sportsbook and I haven't seen it. It's Chiefs to PUNT (EVEN) before they SCORE (-120). Seems like great value to me.

FanDuel took a $347,000 bet on Under for KC RB Damian Williams Rushing Yards 53½
MGM Grand in Las Vegas took Alternate Line bet on Over 42½, $450,000 to win $100,000
I played the same prop as Youmans, post 56
 
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