The Official SB Props Thread

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
#4
At Bet Online:

[TABLE]

Specials


What will team that wins coin toss choose to do

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06:00 PM
95257Defer to second half-600
95258Receive ball+350


I know KC deferred every time. I think SF did, but not 100% sure of that. If someone could research they did, this would pretty much be sure $$$$.
 
#8
kyle juszczyks first sf touchdown 20-1

why? I could see this as a sneaky fb dive from the 2 when all the focus is on mostert. kyle only has 3 carries on the year but we see plenty of these "where the fk did he come from" situations in the superbowl.

plus I think shanahan could come up with some things that he hasn't done all season.

complete shot in the dark here. just thinking outside the box on these props.
 
#12
kyle juszczyks first sf touchdown 20-1

why? I could see this as a sneaky fb dive from the 2 when all the focus is on mostert. kyle only has 3 carries on the year but we see plenty of these "where the fk did he come from" situations in the superbowl.

plus I think shanahan could come up with some things that he hasn't done all season.

complete shot in the dark here. just thinking outside the box on these props.
Solid reasoning, I was thinking about Jimmy G +2500 for the same logic you posted, if they have it near the goal line, of course KC's D has to be looking for Mostert, a QB bootleg usually always works in that spot
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#14
Tyreek Hill Under 75.5 receiving yards (-125)

Love this prop. In his last 8 games, Hill has not exceeded 75 receiving yards even once. The Niners play a lot of Cover 3, so Hill likely will be a decoy for much of the game. I expect Mahomes to make a lot of underneath throws.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#15
Number of Niners to have a Rush attempt: Under 5 (-140)

We know Mostert will get plenty of work. Coleman had 22 carries in the win over the Vikings. Breida has been personna non gratta, getting only 33 carries in the Niners last 10 games. He likely will get some carries, but those three plus Jimmy G would be 4. So a real bottom feeder RB would need to carry, or a WR on a reverse.....and that still would only put the number at 5.

Can't imagine the juice on the under getting smaller.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#16
Mostert Over 65.5 rush yards (-133 Heritage)

Don't think for a minute that Derrick Henry's output in the AFC title game was about the Chief defense toughening up. I don't buy it for a second. It was about fatigue to Henry himself, running 96 times over the previous 3 weeks, all on the road against playoff teams. The second question would be the workload issue. But coming off a 210 yard performance, Shanahan has little choice but to try to ride the hot hand again. Coleman did get 22 carries the previous week but that was his only game with over 6 rushes since November 24th. And while Coleman is likely to play, the dislocated shoulder likely means he will definitely be below 100%. Breida has only carried 33 times since November 17, so have to believe Mostert gets at least 15 carries against a defense that isn't good against the run no matter what metrics one uses.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#17
Number of Niners to have a Rush attempt: Under 5 (-140)

We know Mostert will get plenty of work. Coleman had 22 carries in the win over the Vikings. Breida has been personna non gratta, getting only 33 carries in the Niners last 10 games. He likely will get some carries, but those three plus Jimmy G would be 4. So a real bottom feeder RB would need to carry, or a WR on a reverse.....and that still would only put the number at 5.

Can't imagine the juice on the under getting smaller.
Samuel will get a carry, looking to see what his rushing yards prop is.
 
#20
Isnt mahomes very bad against zone?

Zone would also limit his rushing yards.

I also like richard sherman to get a pick. I think i have seen +400.

Reason for this is due to him getting beat and getting an under throw deep ball or him playing zone and jumping a curl route by kelse.
 
#21
Solid reasoning, I was thinking about Jimmy G +2500 for the same logic you posted, if they have it near the goal line, of course KC's D has to be looking for Mostert, a QB bootleg usually always works in that spot
I like this too. A qb sneak or a boot from a 3 te jumbo set is in play.
 
#23
Number of Niners to have a Rush attempt: Under 5 (-140)

We know Mostert will get plenty of work. Coleman had 22 carries in the win over the Vikings. Breida has been personna non gratta, getting only 33 carries in the Niners last 10 games. He likely will get some carries, but those three plus Jimmy G would be 4. So a real bottom feeder RB would need to carry, or a WR on a reverse.....and that still would only put the number at 5.

Can't imagine the juice on the under getting smaller.
TE George Kittles had 5 Rushes during the Regular Season (22 yards) and they could run a fake Punt (they did so vs Chiefs in 2018), but I like your thinking. Four for sure it seems.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#24
2 qbs making their super bowl debut and people are expecting big numbers from both?

Do books clean up like last season?
That is my concern for an over. If I were playing over, it’s KC TT over. KC has scored 31+ in all four playoff games Mahomes has started. It’s less likely he would be rattled by the big stage.
 
#26
Sunday, February 2—66017 Super Bowl LIV Propositions
Will Both Teams Make a 33+ Yard FG? Yes -120
(Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

This stands out to me as getting points when you can in the biggest game of the NFL season is paramount when playing an opponent as talented and prolific as these two teams are. And the Kickers for both teams will be kicking off the Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass playing surface of Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, so, a friendly turf but Wind could be a factor as well as a HC having the onions to go for it and not try to kick a FG (of 33 yards or more) in the fucking Super Bowl.

AFC champions Kansas City Chiefs K Harrison Butker was 34-for-38 (89.5%) on his Regular Season FG Attempts (1-1 in AFC Playoffs) and the 6-4, 205-pound Georgia Tech product was 9-for-10 from 30 to 39 yards, a perfect 13-for-13 from 40 to 49 and 3-for-6 from 50 yards out or more. The longest FG made by Butker this season was from 56 yards out.

NFC champions San Francisco 49ers K Robbie Gould was automatic when he played for the Bears, and now the 6-0, 190 Penn State veteran was 12-for-31 (74.2%) going 8-for-10 from 30 to 39 yards out, 6-for-8 from 40 to 49 but 0-for-4 from 50 yards out or longer. Gould is 5-for-5 this Postseason with a long of 54 and his longest FG in the Regular Season was a 47-yarder.

So Gould’s Confidence now—hitting from 54 after missing all 4 from 50+ in RS—is at its highest point and HC Shanahan won’t be scared. The Niners started the RS off with Chase McLaughlin (Colts) as their PK, but resigned Gould to a 4-year extension after he set a franchise record, connecting on 33 of 34 FG attempts in 2018 and his 96.0% FG percentage was the 2nd highest ever in the NFL over a 2-year span
 
#28
That is my concern for an over. If I were playing over, it’s KC TT over. KC has scored 31+ in all four playoff games Mahomes has started. It’s less likely he would be rattled by the big stage.
I don't have the numbers off the top of my head but I remember seeing Mahomes numbers against zone defense is much worse than against man. sf plays primarily zone, cover 3 to be exact.

could very much slow this team down and turn it into a check down charlie style.
 
#29
Sunday, February 2—66017 Super Bowl LIV Propositions
Will Both Teams Make a 33+ Yard FG? Yes -120
(Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

This stands out to me as getting points when you can in the biggest game of the NFL season is paramount when playing an opponent as talented and prolific as these two teams are. And the Kickers for both teams will be kicking off the Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass playing surface of Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, so, a friendly turf but Wind could be a factor as well as a HC having the onions to go for it and not try to kick a FG (of 33 yards or more) in the fucking Super Bowl.

AFC champions Kansas City Chiefs K Harrison Butker was 34-for-38 (89.5%) on his Regular Season FG Attempts (1-1 in AFC Playoffs) and the 6-4, 205-pound Georgia Tech product was 9-for-10 from 30 to 39 yards, a perfect 13-for-13 from 40 to 49 and 3-for-6 from 50 yards out or more. The longest FG made by Butker this season was from 56 yards out.

NFC champions San Francisco 49ers K Robbie Gould was automatic when he played for the Bears, and now the 6-0, 190 Penn State veteran was 12-for-31 (74.2%) going 8-for-10 from 30 to 39 yards out, 6-for-8 from 40 to 49 but 0-for-4 from 50 yards out or longer. Gould is 5-for-5 this Postseason with a long of 54 and his longest FG in the Regular Season was a 47-yarder.

So Gould’s Confidence now—hitting from 54 after missing all 4 from 50+ in RS—is at its highest point and HC Shanahan won’t be scared. The Niners started the RS off with Chase McLaughlin (Colts) as their PK, but resigned Gould to a 4-year extension after he set a franchise record, connecting on 33 of 34 FG attempts in 2018 and his 96.0% FG percentage was the 2nd highest ever in the NFL over a 2-year span
jesus Kevin this is some great logic. nice get.
 
#31
jesus Kevin this is some great logic. nice get.
Thanks brother. Took 2 hours and jumped out at me from this first Westgate sheet. It seems either the number of yards (distance) for the FG Atttempts (33) is too low (s/b 35-38-ish) and the vig (-120) is way too low. Teams will want to score however they can in such a big game, the last one of the year. I will bet this one. Don't see the Wind as a problem and both K's "feeling good" abut themselves. That matters. Debating $5 on Gould (100/1) as MVP and mulling Mostert. Back into The Lab.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#33
I don't have access to all the Westgate props but here's a few I'd like to see:

Kittle vs Kelce total receiving yards
Is Mahomes more likely to go over his passing total compared to his rush total, or neither?
Watson/Hill vs Samuel/Sanders receiving yards
Rush yards: Breida vs McCoy
Team sacks & interceptions
 
#34
I bet these 6 today at Palace Station:

T HILL 1st PASS REC OVER 12½ -120 $12/10
T KELCE TO SCORE AT LEAST 1 TD Yes -115 $10/8.70
WILL 49ERS CONVERT 4TH DOWN ATTEMPT? Yes $10/$9.50
TOTAL FIELD GOALS OVER 3½ +105 $10/10.50
MOSTERT TO WIN SB LIV MVP 6/1 $10/60
GOULD TO WIN SB MVP 100/1 $5/500

Sorry, these are "BIG GAME" Props and not "SUPER BOWL LIV" Props. I didn't read the tickets carefully. Perhaps I have already lost.
 
#35
I looked at the
I bet these 6 today at Palace Station:

T HILL 1st PASS REC OVER 12½ -120 $12/10
T KELCE TO SCORE AT LEAST 1 TD Yes -115 $10/8.70
WILL 49ERS CONVERT 4TH DOWN ATTEMPT? Yes $10/$9.50
TOTAL FIELD GOALS OVER 3½ +105 $10/10.50
MOSTERT TO WIN SB LIV MVP 6/1 $10/60
GOULD TO WIN SB MVP 100/1 $5/500

Sorry, these are "BIG GAME" Props and not "SUPER BOWL LIV" Props. I didn't read the tickets carefully. Perhaps I have already lost.
I think this has more to do the NFL not allowing sportsbook to market gambling with the "SuperBowl" which I think they have trademarked.
 
#36
I know man. I just hate that they call it that in 2020. We have an NFL team. The Supreme Court ruled. LV should grow up. It's the Super Bowl. And it's in the public domain. So American and lawerly. World Series isn't ""The Big Games." PC-ness run amuk
 
#37
2963 Super Bowl LIV Propositions
Raheem Mostert to win MVP 6/1 (Station Casinos)


This dude has been running wild of late, and only the two QBs, Patrick Mahomes (4/5 to Win Super Bowl LIV MVP, Station Casinos) and Jimmy Garoppolo (7/2) have shorter odds than SF RB Mostert. With the way the 49ers OL seems to just love blocking and getting off the line and blocking downfield could create huge problems for the Chiefs D, ranked 23rd in the NFL against the Rush in the Regular Season (98.1 ypg).

At 5-10, 205-pounds, Purdue product transfer fire hydrant-type runner Mostert (5.6 ypc, #2 in NFL) is on his 7th team and rushed 157 times for 772 yards (8 TDs), so he hasn’t been (PHI-MIA-BALT-CLE-NYJ-CHI) used like a mule toting Japanese tourists to the bottom of the Grand Canyon.

The 27-year-old Mostert may look like a Darren Sproles back, but don’t let that size and body type similarity fool you. Mostert is Fast as fuck. Nobody ever says it on TV. But Mostert is speedy and won Gold Medals for the Boilermakers on their Track team.

At the Big Ten Conference Indoor Track and Field Championships, Mostert blazed a 6.63 60-yard Dash as well as a 20.73 200-yard Dash. On his NFL Pro Day, Mostert clocked a 2.42 40-yard Dash. They say the Chiefs WRs are Olympic sprinters. Mostert will show them fast. With the football.

In the Postseason, Mosstert has obviously turned it up a notch with Jimmy G and Coach Shanahan more than willing to cater to this still underrated RB. Against the Seahawks in Week 17, Mostert ran 10 times for 57 yards (5.7 ypc) and had 2 important TDs in SF’s 26-21 Win. Against The Purple People Beaters in the NFC Divisional playoffs, Mostert had 12 carries for 58 yards (4.8 ypc) while against the Cheesefucks in the NFC Championship, Mostert got the ball 29 fucking times—29—for 220 yards (7.6 ypc) and scored 4 TDs. The best piece of Chocolate cake ever? I have $10 on his and now wish I had $20. I have Time.

Shanahan will make a point to give Mostert the ball at least 30 times in an effort to control the Clock, and thus the game, and keep it out of Mahomes hands. Should the Niners win and Mostert have around 200 yards and 2 TDs (or more) with Jimmy G having managed and minimum Passing yardage, this dude from Purdue could win the Super Bowl LIV MVP.

How 49ers get 36? Mostert 2 TDs, Kittles 1 TD + Gould 5 FGs — How Chiefs get to 27? Hill, Kelce and Mahomes TDs + 2 Butker FGs

 
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