in cases like this load up on all underdog head to head round by round. too much randomness to have much of a favorite imo. In conditions like that with over par the norm most of these head ot heads are pretty much coin flips
I read an article that asked a lot of experts who went out and played it and they said to expect winning score to be plus par. Useful info because you know all these US books are going to post special boosts for the rounds, usually calling for an under par round.