Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?
So wantit, the only games you can consider for the push rate are ones that opened -3 at every book, stayed there all week, and closed -3 at every book? Has that ever happened in the history of sports betting?
There is no intrinsic difference between games lined at -2 or -4 in terms of their probability of the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. You can remedy the small sample problem by including these. You don't find it odd that the percentage of these games that land on the 3 is remarkably consistent year to year? Of course the new OT rules will diminish the power of the 3 but in time, you can still ascertain a reliable rate.
Regardless, I doubt either you or HT know how to convert push percentages into a "cent value".
I think I answered that somewhere. Pretty sure it was 11 times a game was lined -3 and you couldnt get any other number but -3 anywhere or any time. At least of the 16 books I can check. I cant remember now it has gotten so convoluted.
Bottom line is there isnt any way to fix a value on it. No matter how hard you try. The results change with every game added.
Like I said since 2000 there have been 501 games that have had a 3 point margin of victory, regardless of who was favored. That is the total number of 3 point games. That is in a total of 3161 games. As you break it down int what spreads end in 3 point differentials is when it gets complicated because you cant say for certain what the spread was because a lot of books vary. Pinnacle might have -2.5 5 Dimes might have 1. Or Pinny might have 3.5 and another place might have 5. So trying to break it down that precisely is impossible.
As far as being 'remarkably consistent' they arent. Not even close. Even a generic search against widely available closures will show that. I will throw out the last couple years....
-4 to -2 favorites (WA closers)
2011
58-39 SU
45-47-5 ATS
Team won by 3--- pts 7 games (7.2%)
Push on the 3 --2 games (3 pushes not on 3)
2010
67-47 SU
55-56-3 ATS
Team won by 3 pts--10 games (8.8%)
Pushes on the 3 All 3
2009
49-37 SU
40-44-2 ATS
Team won by 3 pts 6 games(7%)
Pushes on the 3 All 2
So in 3 season (including play offs) you have 297 games that CLOSED -4 thru -2. Of those games 23 ended with team winning by 3 points. Of those games 7 pushed. So a few ways to break it down. 23 of 297 games (closing around -3) ended with a 3 point result, thats 7.7% overall. Yearly percentages are in parentheses above. 7 games actually pushed against the closer. So 7 of 297, thats 2.3%
I will add another wrinkle, of those 297 games 93 of them closed exactly on 3. so 7 pushes in the 93 games that closed right on 3 is 7.5%
So is it fair to say the chances are around 7.6%? Probably not. The yearly percentages go up and down a bit. If I went back to 2000 they would rise and fall a similar amount and hold no real median.
This is still just looking at generic closers in a vacuum. It doesnt take into account numbers elsewhere. I suppose if I just used closers at Pinnacle some people would accept that. But then again most people arent too bright.
But even if you wanted to say there was a 7.5% chance of a push on these games lined around -3, that still doesnt get you anywhere near 23 or 26 cents or whatever he claimed it was.
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