Certainly didn't hurt to be rooting for some of the same sides with you, Bob. And, yeah, I underestimated just how much Denver was a shell of its former self due to injuries. Although, as with many of these games, a play or two here or there -- like the 2-point conversion turnaround -- could have made more of an ATS game of it. And Bosa was finally back -- as in back as an impact player -- today. Getting back in game shape and getting confident with his previously injured foot at just the right time heading into the playoffs. He can be disruptive.
But, yeah, after having a $220K swing on a missed field goal as the difference between 1st and tied for 4th back in the 2004 SuperContest (with a then whopping 411 entries), I -- sort of -- can take a six figure swing on a single side a bit more in stride.
Almost $150K on the T6 SuperContest Classic finish this year still will do nicely, all things considered. And the 56.5 contest points beats my prior high water mark of 52 (twice I believe). That's satisfying after the 17-week marathon that feels like we run it at a 800 meter pace.
Thanks guys . . . yeah, I knew that I had "a little bit" riding on that final game.
But, first, I was busy heading into the game quickly setting up a cash hedge, which took me down to the SouthPoint for the first half. That kept me occupied as I was running around.
And then, on my way mostly home (game on the car radio), I wound up watching the second half over at the SuperBook with Dave and a friend of his who was in town, so visiting with them kind of insulated me from obsessing too much about the potential payout swing on that final game.
I didn't have a bunch of cash on hand to do a strictly cash hedge. But I wanted to do at least a small middle in all events. The contest number was at -3, and I was scrambling to get down to the Southpoint to catch a +6 that I saw down there within the last hour before game time. But it had evaporated back to a +5.5 by the time that I got there (yes, I'll be mobile app'd all the way for next season now with the bankroll bump). So I caught the +5.5 there, with no time to get anywhere else and likely no better number anywhere else anyway by that point.
There wasn't enough time -- before I left the house initially -- to bum some more money off a bettor friend and also get to the Southpoint in time, so I basically was able to cobble together only enough on the fly to buy a dime ticket for the middle/hedge. Didn't want to pass that up at least that shot at having the -3/+5.5 on the game. Would have loved the +6 even better of course.
A pro might have done it differently, but that's what I did with the time and money that I had at that point.
Laying the contest -3 on that particular game -- which otherwise was supported by my handicapping -- did allow for that sort of hedge/side-or-possible-middle opportunity if I had a lot riding on that final game. There was a pretty good chance that the line was going to stay above 3 or possibly go higher based on the Mariota situation. It appeared to me more probable than not that he was going to be inactive.
If he instead had tried to go, that may have juked the pre-game line and eliminated the opportunity to do that. But insofar as the underlying pick was concerned, I believed that it was even more probable that if he played he would not have been effective with the ulnar nerve injury ("stinger" was BS) against the surging IND D over the second half of the season. So I would have been OK with the eventuality of Mariota being up even if that would have worked against a side, middle, or possibly even a hedge opportunity if the line went down to 2.5 before the game kicked because Mariota was reported to be up rather than down (all leaving in-game betting to the side, with which I haven't established a direct experience base). With the injury, the TEN QB position was going to be a liability in the game either way, with no disrespect to Gabbert other than handicapping probable outcomes. If he had to play from behind in the fourth quarter against that defense, we most likely were going to see exactly what we did see on SNF. Although all those penalties didn't help him either, over and above his own particular position battle against the IND D.
Haven't looked with anything like the above focus at any of those games, John. After 17 weeks on the clock, with that "little bit" on the line at the end, my focus has shifted back to the exercise and nutrition regimen that I got knocked off of from Thanksgiving on. Without health, no other success matters.
Generally, however, the playoffs always remind me of how much of an advantage it is in season to be able to discard from 13 to 16 down to 5 sides. You lose that selectivity when it's down to four games a weekend.
If I were to break down this quartet with full focus, I likely would start with a look at SEA currently at +1.5 to +2. They still may be undervalued by the market. The Week 17 performance v. ARI doesn't mean much to me.
But I have a 30 page draft opinion waiting on my virtual desktop for me in the morning that I was trying to finish before I took leave for the run for the roses, and cardio still to do, so I may not get to that fully focused analysis for the WC round.
It's a fair bet, however, that these wild card games are going to be much better than the CFB semifinals were this year, although that's a pretty low bar.
Thanks, guys. I very much appreciate all the kind comments.
Hey, Dave, I did refer to "the run for the roses" in post #21 . . . "completely transparent" the whole way, lol.
Crick (2W2P2S), you guys definitely have a very, very nice dinner waiting next time you're in town. The help that you and Donnie Peszynski (Win More -- Lose Less) provided in the 2011 threads as we looked together at SuperContest strategy on viewfromvegas.com and then "back channel" during the 2012 season (I'll leave it to you to elaborate on that if you want to) has been a material part of my tool box in all those following years.
Our old friend The Dread Pirate Roberts was with me every step of the way this year, especially coming down the stretch, even when I wasn't picking specifically the five most mathematically advantaged plays on the board. Knowing specifically and precisely what "the math" would do at that point -- down to the cent if necessary -- was a constant reference point as I was breaking down the board each week.
And of course it was me that was the dead weight, lol. You math guys made it simple -- and consistent -- even for a liberal arts wordsmith like me.
Actually from Week 6 to Week 12 (as well as Weeks 1 and 2, so most of the contest), Squarepants was out of the Top 100. He made a major move in Week 13 from a tie for 107th place up to 42nd place. Little did I suspect that he had a second entry as well as one in the running for the Gold contest. I should have compared picks, dammit as JK would say!
Yeah, Bob, I kept wondering whether you were going to bust me on Squarepants being Nito Ichi . . . and also There Can Be Only 1, lol.
Nito Ichi comes from Miyamoto Musashi's Niten Ichi-ryu, the samurai discipline that he taught that used two swords. So, along with the Highlander reference over in the Gold, I guess I had this whole sword thing going.
Just did my first broadcast radio gig in 53 years (my Dad used to own and run a small radio station in North Louisiana).
Not sure how it came out, but enjoyed being on Brent Musburger's show on VSiN this afternoon.
Reminds me of the line about oral argument that appellate lawyers say -- there's the argument you prepared to give, the argument you gave, and the argument that wish you had given afterwards. But definitely enjoyed doing it.