Winkyduck Challenge for March....presented by Winkyduck (Winkyduck is our March contestant)

nut6

EOG Master
All good, thx, how about yourself? You been up or down?

Been running very well
hoops been very good but as always excited
About Bases . Been at Kiawah Island since Friday
Golfing & Beaching. Hope you are doing well and
Have a winning Baseball season.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Somebody with a Pinnacle account, try to make this bet and cee if you get a not so fast message. Looks like Winky is going run this thread with Birdie rules. Early cheat, past post.

Pinnacle doesn't allow parlaying side to any TT prop. It doesn't even allow a parlay of soccer side to total for the same game as being "correlated".
 
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Pinnacle doesn't allow parlaying side to any TT prop. It doesn't even allow a parlay of side to total for the same game as being "correlated".

I don't think any books do for soccer unless you are betting the "same game parlay" which have dramatically reduced odds. Way too correlated on soccer.
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
61' goal Wolver Wankers. Now let's cee if Winky goes 0-2 with a chalk pee bath. Good thing nobody bet me. No way I would accept this as only 0-1.
 

svbettor

EOG Addicted
Show them what you are made of Winky..... Go Silence all the Haters... All they are going to do is hate.

Dell dude dont drink that "Hater"ade
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Winky can give me a haterade bath by winning. Going to be a long thread for the Winker if he can't even post valid bets. Let's see if the third time is the trytrytry charm. Instead of 30 plays to clear 5 units, he has 28 bets to clear 7.44. Pretty soon it is going to take Mickey Mouse to upset the Joker.
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
There is already controversy on the units. Winky posted a fake bet and then changed the OJ after it lost. Since this is his contest, no Brian Harmy no Rickie Flower but it is not a good look. Makes you wonder howid accurate is his EOG play of the Jason Day record. He's grading it. not JK. Come on, Winky. Give us a legitimate bet and a winner. You can do it!
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Show them what you are made of Winky..... Go Silence all the Haters... All they are going to do is hate.

Dell dude dont drink that "Hater"ade

DD doesn't bother me. I never see his posts. Same with Rail and a few others
 

pete mcmeat

EOG Senior Member
so, today was the skip a play day.....

just start firing plus 300 dogs and hope lightning strikes.....i'm sure jk will change the rules of the gc after that
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
According to his rules, he can go to 31. Would be stupid to give up the extra play this early but not surprising.

**An arbitrary 18-12 record or 60% is not the goal. That comes out to +4.8 units. If I go 12-18 but I end up +5.00 units, or better – the Challenge is a successful one. With 31 days and only 30 plays it means I can take 1 day off or submit a play all 31 days.
 

pete mcmeat

EOG Senior Member
winky....just play lakers 1st qtr plus 1 and parlay them to the 1st half plus 2.....pays 260 and gets you ahead in the challenge......pretty sure pinnacle takes those bets.....bob
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Kicking myself for not doing what I had set aside to do: Palace TT Under.................so I'll do this now to make sure I get the best number

0-2 -2.44

Wed March 17 (Seriously): Atletico Madrid/Chelsea UN2 +128

By the time this game kicks off I will probably have about 3-5 different plays on this game. ALL of them will be tied to UNDER. This game has 0-0 or 1-0 written all over it. It will be every bit as boring as the first leg, a 1-0 Chelsea win on an 86th minute goal. This one game will go a long way in determining my fate this month.
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
It's March 4th and Winky is still adjusting his mask. Here is a winner for this stupid thread.

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
350.00 948.30

CBB - [729] Michigan State +12.5 -109
Game start 03/04/2021 07:00 PM
CBB - [729] TOTAL o140.5 -107
(Michigan State vrs Michigan)
Game start 03/04/2021 07:00 PM
 
Kicking myself for not doing what I had set aside to do: Palace TT Under.................so I'll do this now to make sure I get the best number

0-2 -2.44

Wed March 17 (Seriously): Atletico Madrid/Chelsea UN2 +128

By the time this game kicks off I will probably have about 3-5 different plays on this game. ALL of them will be tied to UNDER. This game has 0-0 or 1-0 written all over it. It will be every bit as boring as the first leg, a 1-0 Chelsea win on an 86th minute goal. This one game will go a long way in determining my fate this month.

Why would you let your month's fate rely on how one game progresses? If Chelsea scores it will be a free for all, Atleti can go wide open and put up some goals if they get out of defensive mode.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Why would you let your month's fate rely on how one game progresses? If Chelsea scores it will be a free for all, Atleti can go wide open and put up some goals if they get out of defensive mode.

Fair point. I feel very confident that both team will play cautiously. The longer it stays 0-0 the happier Chelsea is but Atleti won't be too upset, either. If Atleti gets a goal now both teams will dig in and play defense knowing the next one probably decides the tie - especially if Atleti gets it. Atleti +250 to advance is a great play, too
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Before Winky has given us a winner, he has posted a fake bet, changed the juice after it lost and now changed the rules. I'd post never change but that would be to ironic.
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
**If the play ends in a PUSH – that is how it will be graded. I will not be allowed to submit another pick
**I avoided some games because they could have ended in a PUSH. So from now on plays will only count if they end in a result. Plays that end up as a PUSH will not count and only plays where a Win/Loss results will be counted.

With 31 days and only 30 plays it means I can take 1 day off or submit a play all 31 days.
**I can pick as many games on any day as I like. If I want to play 5 games in 1 day - I can.
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
The only winner in this stupid thread is JK and the EOG play of the day. Whatever faults it has, Winky has has made us forget and appreciate it.
 

Dell Dude

EOG Master
There is no legitimacy to this contest as if there ever was. Winky had years to think about it and he can't even keep the rules form before the weekend. Besides the fake bet with fake juice, changing pushes and 1 bet, 1 day contorts the contest in a way that cannot be reconciled. End this stupid thread, Winky. End it now. Save yourself further embarrassment when you go 10-20 -15 units.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Why would you let your month's fate rely on how one game progresses? If Chelsea scores it will be a free for all, Atleti can go wide open and put up some goals if they get out of defensive mode.

The goal to win at least 5 units in 30 picks implies at least a 13.9% to 16.7% ROI for bets say in the range -120 to +120. To do this with independent selections takes a lot of luck, obviously no capper does this on a long-term basis. With "normal" picks at 50/50, the odds are around 6/1 against winning the contest. One strategy to improve one's chances is to make selections that have a positive correlation with each other. In effect, this decreases the independent choices, so even if the multiple selections only are 50/50, it increases the overall chances to win the contest.
 
The goal to win at least 5 units in 30 picks implies at least a 13.9% to 16.7% ROI for bets say in the range -120 to +120. To do this with independent selections takes a lot of luck, obviously no capper does this on a long-term basis. With "normal" picks at 50/50, the odds are around 6/1 against winning the contest. One strategy to improve one's chances is to make selections that have a positive correlation with each other. In effect, this decreases the independent choices, so even if the multiple selections only are 50/50, it increases the overall chances to win the contest.

Sure but the idea of this was to get ahead 5 units from grinding +EV action throughout the month I assumed. Otherwise yeah your best bet is to go after some parlays and big dogs and hope you hit it early, then pass the rest of the month.
 
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