MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
We have overall herd immunity for measles because of vaccines but there are still some outbreaks because people bring it into the community and not everyone is immune.
Your Level of Concern About the Coronavirus......on a scale of 1-10
- Thread starter Viejo Dinosaur
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Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
Of course. That is the definition of it.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
ok just show me where it simply says that from a valid source
I posted my definition
kane
EOG master
mr merlin
EOG Master
The last estimate I saw of the R 0 in NY was about .8 so every cycle that occurs, maybe 10 days, it should go down by roughly 20%, now that's the statewide figure, the R 0 might be higher in the less hard hit areas and very low in the heavily hit areas.
I would consider the R 0 under herd immunity to be far lower than the .7 - .9 range but that's not the point, the goal is to open the economy and live with the virus until a vaccine comes(or we reach true herd immunity)
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
i
yeah that doesn't do it.
again semantics but important
Herd Immunity will give you an R naught below 1.0
AND
you can have an R naught below 1.0 and NOT have enough people with vaccinated or Acquired immunity to have herd immunity.
So just because you have an R0 of .97 like NC you can't say you have herd immunity. You've just lowered transmission to below 1:1 person on avg
Its an important distinction and pertinent to today as we hope towards herd immunity, and thus being able to totally relax our voluntary and involuntary social distancing practices
yeah that doesn't do it.
again semantics but important
Herd Immunity will give you an R naught below 1.0
AND
you can have an R naught below 1.0 and NOT have enough people with vaccinated or Acquired immunity to have herd immunity.
So just because you have an R0 of .97 like NC you can't say you have herd immunity. You've just lowered transmission to below 1:1 person on avg
Its an important distinction and pertinent to today as we hope towards herd immunity, and thus being able to totally relax our voluntary and involuntary social distancing practices
mr merlin
EOG Master
Those numbers are guesses only, and the fact they change almost every day means they have little credibility IMO. Why cases numbers rise or fall is a function of many variables, most of them unknown.
If we only tested randomly you would have a good idea, but since one week they might be mass testing nursing homes, the next packing plants, the next students, wide variations are expected on a week to week basis.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
What you are saying is not true at all.
A more brief example if that Oxford paper is too complex mathematically for you:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-...tion-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/
Ever think that the numbers on that site you linked are nonsense? How would they possibly have valid R1 numbers without having random antibody test samples from each state?
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
What makes you say .7-.9?
yeah I agree that goal is to open the economy, but also be strategic in each geographic location, to do so while also working to reduce the community transmission. working over time on testing and contract tracing, prob the biggest challenge is messaging
at this point, it's a mess and too convulated, I don't think we have any leaders that are up to the task considering the disruptive shitty spoiled constituents everyone is dealing with on all the fringes
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
Oh my idea of R naught and herd immunity is not based on those numbers. I think they are interesting and useful numbers, but everything trying to capture today's happenings is sure to be off to various degrees.
again. It's just the idea that you can't reduce the transmission to a point where you have an R naught of .99 or below without having 80% of the population achieving Immunity.
The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
In a simplified discussion of R naught.
we can show how in a theoretical utopian society that knew a virus had suddenly hit their bubble and of 100 people had infected 5 members.
they had testing ready to go though and the 5 initially infected were quckly ushered to a quarantine hospital. They contacts were traced and the 15 other people that had been in contact with those 5. were isolated. It was highly contagious and ten of those 15 came down with illness.
15 people contracted the virus, they recovered and spread it to zero other people. even before they fully recoverd we could say they had an R naught of zero.
but after they recovered and rejoined the community the entire community of 100 didn't have herd immunity.
if we let it go an purposely infected everyone like they did with chicken pox in families. then yes at least 80% of people would get it and herd immunity would be achieved and the R0 would go below 1.0
we can show how in a theoretical utopian society that knew a virus had suddenly hit their bubble and of 100 people had infected 5 members.
they had testing ready to go though and the 5 initially infected were quckly ushered to a quarantine hospital. They contacts were traced and the 15 other people that had been in contact with those 5. were isolated. It was highly contagious and ten of those 15 came down with illness.
15 people contracted the virus, they recovered and spread it to zero other people. even before they fully recoverd we could say they had an R naught of zero.
but after they recovered and rejoined the community the entire community of 100 didn't have herd immunity.
if we let it go an purposely infected everyone like they did with chicken pox in families. then yes at least 80% of people would get it and herd immunity would be achieved and the R0 would go below 1.0
mr merlin
EOG Master
The lowest estimates I've seen for any state are in the .7 range, but no state is close to true herd immunity. Contact tracing is prob the biggest joke of the last month or so, remember when that was the holy grail to reopening - that was only a month ago. it's pretty much failed everywhere to really identify anything but the obvious.
The media is pushing the hysteria again and people are falling for it, how and why they do that is beyond me. On the evening news tonight they had that Obama administration health expert(gotlieb?) comment on deaths - he said "right now we are going in the wrong direction", an out an out lie, today we'll likely be at a new friday low...again.
The media is pushing the reopening narrative for the surge - some of these states have been reopened for 2 months now - that is NOT the reason, yet no one really wants to figure it out, it's ridiculous.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
from that article
Re is affected by the number of people with the infection and the number of susceptibles with whom infected people are in contact. People’s behaviour (e.g. social distancing) can also affect Re.
again
a) R naught is manipulated to below 1.0 and herd immunity is achieved
b) R naught is manipulated to below 1.0 and herd immunity is not achieved
both A and B can happen.
But B can happen without A as well
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
I've read many examples of it working well
I think the failure is on our nation as a whole and not on the method properly utlized
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
There is a difference between R0 and R1 and I didn’t help in my original posts. They should have said R1 and not R0. R0 is the contagion rate with ZERO immunity.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
If R0 is 1, there is no chance for an outbreak though.
mr merlin
EOG Master
I've read it isn't working at all, Ny supposedly has 3000 people and they dont really detect anything, also read that in europe it's been largely ineffective as well.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
no doubt the media has made this worse at almost every turn. But that's to be expected.
I'm unsure about what is happening behind the scenes
why did the TX and FL govenors suddenly cave?
was the libtard media pressure too much
political fear
or do they have some good knowledge they are getting that we aren't privy to yet?
mr merlin
EOG Master
it's pretty clear right now the virus is circulating undetected in large amounts, which is not necessarially a bad thing , when you have 5% of NBA and baseball players and even golfers testing positive at the same time, that means it's far more widespread than thought. keep in mind almost none of them would have been tested under normal conditions.
I would assume the virus was around 2-3-4 weeks ago and many of them had it , never knew it, and now test negative. So we cant say that gee, 5 golfers have had covid(out of 150), probably 20 or 30 of them have had it and we dont know it.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
that's a different discussion, I don't agree with that either. It certainly can go back up if other variables change and herd immunity is not reached.
But that's not what we were discussing.
its simply a question of if you believe a Rnaught above 1.0 can go down below 1.0 without herd immunity
I say yes you can have an R naught of .75 and not have herd immunity
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
Keep reading...
Unfortunately, the symbol R0 is often used in publications when Re is meant. This can be confusing.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
sure.
and on top of the newly tested NBA players we read about, plus the NBA players we read that popped positive in march starting with Goebert.... there were certainly many NBA plyaers that contracted the virus in April or early May and and recovered since then and just tested negative in this recent test
that does make me hopeful
it is still anecdotal
as are the various super super tiny antibody tests we've read about.
and we know those antibody tests are super unreliable to begin with
and we know known of the results have shown us anything in a large scale area approaching 50%, not even Sweden.
So i'm not going to just accept that as the good and final news
mr merlin
EOG Master
They're all weak, it's follow the leader, TX did so that made it easy for descantis to as well, he no doubt saw the 8000 new cases today and felt the heat.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
By definition, it cannot. I go back to the measles example. You can have herd immunity in a community but still get pockets of outbreaks that are brought in externally.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
got it
they have convenient defintions
Definitions
Some definitions of terms used in this article are given below.
Immunity to a viral infection is the state of being non-susceptible to it, by virtue of being able to produce neutralizing antibodies when challenged by it; such antibodies may be produced by prior exposure or by immunization following vaccination.
Herd immunity is a form of protection from an infectious disease that results when a large enough proportion of the population has become immune, conferring indirect protection from infection on individuals who are not themselves immune.
Vaccination against a viral infection is the administration of a vaccine to an individual with the intention of immunizing that individual or boosting pre-existing immunity.
Immunization against a viral infection is the production of immunity to the infection by virtue of successful vaccination or exposure to the virus.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Measles is one of the most contagious viruss's there is, the r 0 is something like 12 normally, that's why it takes 95% vaccination rate to knock it out. When the vaccine for covid comes, half the people will not get it.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
yes I can remember hearing about how you could catch the measles if they went in the same room as someone how had it, even if they had left that room hours before you went in there.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Back when i was a kid they had measles parties where the mothers would invite all the neighborhood kids for fun and games - and they'd all get it. if you had kids you wanted it to happen all at once and not 1 kid at a time.
"hey, my kid has measles...I'll get the kids and be right over", LOL.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
Well, you have a lot of scientists and mathematicians to argue with then.
Good luck.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
I'd still like to see one quoted as saying the definition of herd immunity simply was an R0 of below 1.0
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
I just gave you two references along with the site you linked yourself.
Bushay
NHL Expert
The bottom line is if it wasn't Trump running for re-election, this thread would have 200 posts instead of 10,200 and no one would be concerned about a mask at all. They know they are losing their dear leader come November and doing everything possible on their part to justify why we lead the world in infections and deaths. Pretty sad.
blueline
EOG Master
Houston Facing ‘Catastrophic’ Coronavirus Spike, County Judge Says
and then of course you have this
Texas GOP convention won’t require masks, despite COVID-19 surge in Houston and state
and then of course you have this
Texas GOP convention won’t require masks, despite COVID-19 surge in Houston and state
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
the defintion from your site matched my definition, and it says nothing about R Naught.
you just refuse to admit that you are wrong that you can lower an RO to under 1.0 and not have herd immunity.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf
some people will remember this guy and his infectious disease team from the Joe Rogan podcast.
Some countries appear to have been able to drive their R0 for SARS-CoV-2 below 1 with mitigation measures, although as the mitigation measures are lifted, the R0 in any given area may creep back above 1, leading to disease resurgence over time.
The R0 can vary by factors that influence the contact rate between people, such as physical distancing strategies and lockdowns aimed at driving the R0 below 1. An R0 below 1 indicates that that an outbreak is shrinking rather than expanding, since each infected person is subsequently infecting less than 1 other person. While the R0 is not influenced by herd immunity (which is the proportion of the population that is immune to a virus), either generated by natural infection or by vaccination, immunity in the population can influence the effective reproductive number (RE), which is similar to the R0 but does not depend on having a fully susceptible population (Delamater 2019). Immunity in the population can effectively diminish or end an outbreak by driving RE below 1 (Fine 2011).
its clear that beyond immunity, there are many variables that can lead to changes in R0 averages on individual basis in a much quicker fashion.
Even the average value of R0 is not a purely biological quantity—it depends on behavior and contacts. For example, some have speculated that the R0 for SARS-CoV-2 may be higher in areas of denser population or more frequent contacts, such as large cities.
so yes when you achieve the magial % needed for herd immunity you will have an R naught below 1.0. But acheiving a below 1.0 R naught does not mean you have achieved herd immunity as your statement indicated.
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
You're making this a lot harder than it should be.
R0 is the infection rate with zero immunity. R1 is the infection rate with a portion of the community being immune.
R0 and R1 (or Re) are just reproduction rates of contagion. It's really simple math.
If the R0 is 1.5 and there are 5000 people, they will go on to infect 5000 x 1.5 = 7500 people.
If there are enough people infected to lower the R1 of that virus to 1, they will go on to infect 5000 x 1 = 5000 people.
If there are enough people infected to lower the R1 to 0.9, they will go on to infect 5000 x 0.9 = 4500 people.
What that means is that there are less people being infected than have it currently when the R1 is below 1 which results in a continued lower number of infections.
It's that simple.
R0 is the infection rate with zero immunity. R1 is the infection rate with a portion of the community being immune.
R0 and R1 (or Re) are just reproduction rates of contagion. It's really simple math.
If the R0 is 1.5 and there are 5000 people, they will go on to infect 5000 x 1.5 = 7500 people.
If there are enough people infected to lower the R1 of that virus to 1, they will go on to infect 5000 x 1 = 5000 people.
If there are enough people infected to lower the R1 to 0.9, they will go on to infect 5000 x 0.9 = 4500 people.
What that means is that there are less people being infected than have it currently when the R1 is below 1 which results in a continued lower number of infections.
It's that simple.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
no doubt herd immunity means the Rnaught is lowered
it is simple
it's also simple to understand that just because you have an R naught of .99 or lower doesn not mean you have herd immunity. There are other ways that the R0 goes down. As I've noted from the experts
that is very very simple
it is simple
it's also simple to understand that just because you have an R naught of .99 or lower doesn not mean you have herd immunity. There are other ways that the R0 goes down. As I've noted from the experts
that is very very simple
MonkeyF0cker
EOG Dedicated
R0 = Step 1.
R1 = Beyond step 1.
R1 = Beyond step 1.