Stop cherry picking the polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1031.html
"unlike other recent days, there is no good news for McCain in the national tracking polls. McCain gained a point in the Rasmussen tracker; the other seven all moved toward Obama, although by mere fractions of a point in the cases of Zogby and IBD/TIPP."
ABC/Post Obama +9
AP-Yahoo Obama +7
Battleground Obama +4
Diageo/Hotline Obama +7
Gallup Obama +9
Harris Interactive Obama +6
IBD/TIPP Obama +4.4
Marist Obama +7
Rasmussen Obama +4
Research Obama +8
Zogby Obama +7
Maybe the Zogby poll you saw is newer.
JC, just a question.
Why do you put so much weight in fivethirtyeight? I agree that they have a great model from the looks of it.....but it has yet to predict anything. It has been around for less than a year and Silver will probably need to tinker with it after this election to assess its' shortcomings.
It is also not good when the site is supposed to be run by two people and only one of those people tries to be neutral. That Sean Quinn or whatever is so far left how Silver allows him to post on a "neutral scientific" website is beyond me.
One more thing, does Silver give any thanks to his father? If I remember correctly, Silver's father is a prominent political scientist at Mich St and probably the source of much of this knowledge.
I am just pointing to 538 because they include ALL of the polls. I am not passing judgment on the quality of their analysis.
Today's National Polls...
From a right slanted site (Real Clear Politics)
Polling Data
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>MoE</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/25 - 10/30</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>50.0</td><td>43.5</td><td class="spread">Obama +6.5</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen Reports</td><td>10/28 - 10/30</td><td>3000 LV</td><td>2.0</td><td>51</td><td>47</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Gallup (Traditional)*</td><td>10/28 - 10/30</td><td>2116 LV</td><td>2.0</td><td>51</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Gallup (Expanded)*</td><td>10/28 - 10/30</td><td>2459 LV</td><td>2.0</td><td>52</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +9</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby</td><td>10/28 - 10/30</td><td>1201 LV</td><td>2.9</td><td>50</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Diageo/Hotline</td><td>10/28 - 10/30</td><td>870 LV</td><td>3.6</td><td>48</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">Marist</td><td>10/29 - 10/29</td><td>543 LV</td><td>4.5</td><td>50</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">GWU/Battleground</td><td>10/27 - 10/30</td><td>800 LV</td><td>3.5</td><td>49</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">ABC News/Wash Post</td><td>10/27 - 10/30</td><td>1580 LV</td><td>2.5</td><td>53</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +9</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">FOX News</td><td>10/28 - 10/29</td><td>924 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>47</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +3</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">IBD/TIPP</td><td>10/26 - 10/30</td><td>894 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>48</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="isInRcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">CBS News/NY Times</td><td>10/25 - 10/29</td><td>1005 LV</td><td>--</td><td>52</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +11</td></tr></tbody></table>
that's because the dems were away from home busing their children for trick or treatingThe Zogby poll is for one day(Friday Oct 31st). I read it on Matt Drudge after Sean Hannity got all excited and announced it on his FNC show.
Polls generally are somewhat meaningful but they don't mean shit in this year's election. No one person can get a firm fix on the economy problems but that will fix itself eventually. People with a brain know this and don't need Obama's lecturing to comprehend it.
1 in 7 voters say they haven't made their minds up yet, but this too is from a poll. What many analysts believe is that most of these people have been for Obama all along, but since McCain's been hammerring away at Obama's disturbing admiration for an odd amount of radical thinkers and doers as well as his complete inexperience in the dangers we face in the world, responsible people are now beginning to think about their choice of The Messiah for their next President now that the financial crisis is not taking over everyone's minds 24/7.
This is the most interesting and important election in a generation. Afterwards, we'll either feel safe like we do now under Bush, or several million of us can kiss our ass goodbye. Plus, those brave soldiers who are fighting in Iraq keeping terrorism over there as well as giving a brand new life of freedom without persecution to Iraqis, will either complete the job with the pride due them all along and then come home, or pack up, leave in shame and arrive back on US soil as Murtha the traitor and Obama the coward who's never served says "as soldiers who did nothing but kill Iraqi citizens all along".
Polls generally are somewhat meaningful but they don't mean shit in this year's election. No one person can get a firm fix on the economy problems but that will fix itself eventually. People with a brain know this and don't need Obama's lecturing to comprehend it.
1 in 7 voters say they haven't made their minds up yet, but this too is from a poll. What many analysts believe is that most of these people have been for Obama all along, but since McCain's been hammerring away at Obama's disturbing admiration for an odd amount of radical thinkers and doers as well as his complete inexperience in the dangers we face in the world, responsible people are now beginning to think about their choice of The Messiah for their next President now that the financial crisis is not taking over everyone's minds 24/7.
This is the most interesting and important election in a generation. Afterwards, we'll either feel safe like we do now under Bush, or several million of us can kiss our ass goodbye. Plus, those brave soldiers who are fighting in Iraq keeping terrorism over there as well as giving a brand new life of freedom without persecution to Iraqis, will either complete the job with the pride due them all along and then come home, or pack up, leave in shame and arrive back on US soil as Murtha the traitor and Obama the coward who's never served says "as soldiers who did nothing but kill Iraqi citizens all along".
Damn you're ignorant. As an Iraqi war veteran, I would educate your ass but your mind is nailed shut evidence your parroting the draft dodging junkie Rush Limbaugh. Bush protect us? The dipshit Bush has created a new generation of hating Arabs that want to kill americans. Al-Qaeda is as strong as ever as far as volunteers eagerly joining.
Its funny how gas bag Rush tells his flock of sheep that the race is close. Come Wednesday, you'll realize that you were played.
Damn you're ignorant. As an Iraqi war veteran, I would educate your ass but your mind is nailed shut evidence your parroting the draft dodging junkie Rush Limbaugh. Bush protect us? The dipshit Bush has created a new generation of hating Arabs that want to kill americans. Al-Qaeda is as strong as ever as far as volunteers eagerly joining.
Its funny how gas bag Rush tells his flock of sheep that the race is close. Come Wednesday, you'll realize that you were played.
GO MCCAIN
over 12 million nowBBC Sez:
The film, titled Dear Mr Obama, is the most-viewed election-related video on the YouTube website, attracting more than 11 million hits.
That's gotta rip their little hearts out with every word. Guess we've seen the last of Obama and his lies visiting troops in Iraq, pres. or not!
To be fair though, there are so many random effects in play in this election (Bradley, bandwagon, reverse bandwagon, cell phones, etc.) that I would not be surprised to see many well-respected pollsters off in their predictions.
Maybe the Rovian "geniuses" now flying the McBush campaign into the ground are too old, white and inflexibly focused on the base?
I agree wholeheartedly. Though my observation is anecdotal, I've seen other reports which support my perspective. When I voted last week, I notice a startling increase in the percentage of minorities waiting in line to vote--for over an hour! I don't believe that the usual demographic assumptions regarding registered voters who don't vote will be accurate in this election. I'm looking forward to seeing if my wild-card prediction proves to be prescient. . .