2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I like Padres/Giants over 7
Both pitchers facing bats for 3rd time already this season

Cardinals/ Rockies over 7 -120 if can find it, or 7.5
Rockies bats been hot
Too many righty bats for Gomber to get thru

Plesac over 5.5 Ks, - 104 (DK and BetMGM have it)
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Sorry to all those who had the Braves under... 3-1, down to their final strike and fat fuck Sandoval runs into one. 8-7 final.

my luckiest beat of the year.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I'm dumpster diving today

on Pirates 1H - 110 and Tigers 1H +110. Both mgm

And bet Giants/Rangers over 8,last night
 
SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +132 over Texas

Logan Webb (RHP - SF) has been victimized by shaky control (11% BB%) after a strong showing this spring. A mediocre 60% first-pitch strike rate and 39% ball% will keep that aspect of his game volatile. However, Webb has added more swing-and-miss to his game in 2021 (11.4%) compared to 2020 (9.3%) and his groundball rate is completely off the charts at 59%. That groundball rate has been his calling card forever so it’s not a small sample. Dude induces groundballs one after the other. Logan Webb’s 5.34 ERA is almost two full runs higher than his xERA and thus, a major correction to the good is forthcoming.

There are no corrections coming for Jordan Lyles (LHP - TEX). Every year it’s ugly for Lyles. This year he’s sitting with a 7.09 ERA after seven starts but he only has two losses against one win so it doesn't look as bad as it is. Even with a strand percentage derailment, his expected ratios suggest his wreckage was/is deserved while his xERA/xWHIP history reveals that his "normal" is treacherous...and as far as his disaster starts % history .... it's best not to look if you’re thinking of getting behind him.


https://www.sportswagers.ca/mlb/
 
That guy is really killing it in mlb. Minus 30 units.

Why do you keep linking them?

Anyone & everyone goes on short term losing runs.

I'm more interested in long term records:

200447-69-2 (+3.00)2005196-263-4 (-30.00)2006188-242-16 (-33.00)2007210-256-0 (+19.00)2008168-224-3 (-36.00)2009154-188-14 (-7.00)2010233-264-4 (+54.00)2011207-259-6 (-32.00)2012181-214-0 (0.00)2013234-248-0 (+63.00)2014231-242-0 (+55.00)2015242-287-0 (+12.00)2016234-330-0 (-50.00)2017245-300-0 (+46.00)2018247-310-0 (+74.00)2019188-278-0 (-71.00)202081-93-0 (+29.00)202137-62-0 (-29.00)

https://www.sportswagers.ca/mlb/history.php

And overall records are also important:

"In 2020, we ended +117 units for our 9th winning season in past 11 years."

https://www.sportswagers.ca/index.php

Like others i also like reading writeups with picks.

And hearing what people think (agree or disagree) with them, e.g. Winkyduck offers many useful comments.

Also the title of this thread is "2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion", & i consider the writeups w picks as qualifying under the "Picks" & "Info" categories. Others may consider them a "Fade" in view of the recent record. Feel free to "fade" if you like ;
 
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TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I'm all for any input and opinion

FYI nobody believes in some touts record for past 11 years. It's glossed over like a joke.

And FYI winkyduck is widely regarded a retard, (no offense winkyduck) don't use his name if you want to be taken seriously
 
I'm all for any input and opinion

FYI nobody believes in some touts record for past 11 years. It's glossed over like a joke.

And FYI winkyduck is widely regarded a retard, (no offense winkyduck) don't use his name if you want to be taken seriously

What are you trying, but failing, to say? That his "11 years" of records are not accurate, or they don't matter, or something else? Very few touts (that guy isn't a tout, BTW) don't have accurate long term records over many years that you can find on their website or elsewhere. Let alone proven long term winning records that prove they are long term winners and know what the fuck they are doing betting on sports. Unlike the vast majority - like 99% - of punters (on forums such as this & otherwise) who are long term, lifelong losers.

As for WD, i don't get that impression of him at all. But perhaps you are greatly exaggerating? Whether or not he's a sharp, i don't know, but i appreciate his comments on games in EPL, NHL, etc.. Again feel free to fade if you like. Long term proven losers can be just as useful as long term proven winners in the gamblers repertoire.
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
I think what Toby is saying is that a vast majority of touts greatly exaggerate their records over that large a sample. He's not wrong.

It would be like me taking picks I either released elsewhere or just bet myself but didn't release at all and suddenly including them in my record here. I would be skewered by the other posters here (and rightfully so) if I started doing that.
 
I think what Toby is saying is that a vast majority of touts greatly exaggerate their records over that large a sample. He's not wrong.

It would be like me taking picks I either released elsewhere or just bet myself but didn't release at all and suddenly including them in my record here. I would be skewered by the other posters here (and rightfully so) if I started doing that.

AFAIK most, if not the vast majority of, touts are scumbags. But that has nothing to do with the person whose writeup i posted, who is not a tout & has aggressively opposed & exposed touts for many years. Neither have i ever seen one iota of evidence suggesting his records dating to about 2004 are inaccurate. And everything points to him, a long time Rx poster, as being a standup guy.
 
MLB gave the A's it is ok to move... maybe they wind up in nevada

The A's in Vegas would be such a terrible outcome but stupid shit happens in the sports world. I don't think they will bamboozle the legislature again, the Raiders stadium was such a bizarre outcome. So have no idea where they think they can get an MLB stadium and how they could pay for it. To top it off it's a terrible TV market and like the NFL most locals already have a team so getting switched loyalties is going to be hard.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
The A's in Vegas would be such a terrible outcome but stupid shit happens in the sports world. I don't think they will bamboozle the legislature again, the Raiders stadium was such a bizarre outcome. So have no idea where they think they can get an MLB stadium and how they could pay for it. To top it off it's a terrible TV market and like the NFL most locals already have a team so getting switched loyalties is going to be hard.



1. stay where they are
2. nevada
3. montreal
4. ?


not many spots.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I'm all for any input and opinion

FYI nobody believes in some touts record for past 11 years. It's glossed over like a joke.

And FYI winkyduck is widely regarded a retard, (no offense winkyduck) don't use his name if you want to be taken seriously
This fuy goes on some wild runs, both good and bad. Actually he isn’t a tough, he despises them. All of his picks are free on his site and in the Toronto paper. He had/has a radio show in Toronto also. He’ll never lay chalk though.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
I think Colorado is live today. Gray has been solid at Coors and Darvish actually has a shocking lack of experience there. He also loves to spin the baseball, which doesn't tend to work well at Coors. Toss in the fact that San Diego is severely undermanned and Colo clearly the play.

Portland was mentioned earlier as a possibility for the A's and I think the A's would be insane to move to that crime ridden garbage dump. Portland could be the worst shithole in entire country right now.
 
I think Colorado is live today. Gray has been solid at Coors and Darvish actually has a shocking lack of experience there. He also loves to spin the baseball, which doesn't tend to work well at Coors. Toss in the fact that San Diego is severely undermanned and Colo clearly the play.

Portland was mentioned earlier as a possibility for the A's and I think the A's would be insane to move to that crime ridden garbage dump. Portland could be the worst shithole in entire country right now.

Politics has nothing to do with sports team success. Problem with Vegas for the A's is MLB teams depend on local TV contract for huge part of their budget. Portland is the 21st TV market, Vegas is the 40th. Add to it that a team will tend to bring in state resident viewers from a distance. Oregon has about 50% more people than Nevada.

To me the best market is Charlotte. A little smaller TV market than Portland, but a huge target area to draw from outside of the city and a strong corporate market in the city which supports luxury boxes and VIP seats.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
The A's would love to move to San Jose, which is far bigger than Oakland in population, but the Giants have the rights there with a low level minor league team.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Politics has nothing to do with sports team success. Problem with Vegas for the A's is MLB teams depend on local TV contract for huge part of their budget. Portland is the 21st TV market, Vegas is the 40th. Add to it that a team will tend to bring in state resident viewers from a distance. Oregon has about 50% more people than Nevada.

To me the best market is Charlotte. A little smaller TV market than Portland, but a huge target area to draw from outside of the city and a strong corporate market in the city which supports luxury boxes and VIP seats.




politics could have something to do with the stadium and infrastructure being built
 
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