2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

P

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Heisenberg said:
On Texas + 198..... I had it priced at LAA -145

Arihara is a soft tosser without great stuff but he’s a bit deceptive and LAA hitters iare seeing him for the very first time

I think Bundy is a solid pitcher but it always feels like he gets priced based on his prospect hype instead of his actual MLB performance

Strictly a value play for me
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Might want to play it in the first 5 inn. Rangers have had 3 games this year where they lead after 5 and lost. They have never turned around a game they were losing after 5, and won. The only game you would have been bettor off playing the game, was yesterday when they were tied after 5 and won. That washes out a game where they were also tied and lost.
 
E

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Heisenberg said:
On Texas + 198..... I had it priced at LAA -145

Arihara is a soft tosser without great stuff but he’s a bit deceptive and LAA hitters iare seeing him for the very first time

I think Bundy is a solid pitcher but it always feels like he gets priced based on his prospect hype instead of his actual MLB performance

Strictly a value play for me
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Fantastic call, Heisey!
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Heisenberg said:
On Texas + 198..... I had it priced at LAA -145

Arihara is a soft tosser without great stuff but he’s a bit deceptive and LAA hitters iare seeing him for the very first time

I think Bundy is a solid pitcher but it always feels like he gets priced based on his prospect hype instead of his actual MLB performance

Strictly a value play for me
Click to expand...

Nice call and agree 100% on Bundy. The market loves to overbet hype.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
STL TT over 4.5

STL is first in OPS against LHP at .934

Corbin looks nearly finished-he was never a hard thrower but he’s lost 1.5 off his FB from two years ago and that’s very significant. Corbins out pitch has always been his slider and it’s been coming in flat with bad location

Wind is blowing out and game time temp is a comfortable 68
 
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X-Files

X-Files

2
"Dog ROI breakdowns for 2021...

Home ROI is +9.2%
Road ROI is +14.4%

American League ROI is +20.9%
National League ROI is +3.0%

AL West +35.2%
AL East +24.7%
NL Central +13.8%
NL East +12.1%
AL Central +0.5%NL
West -14.2%"
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Patrick Corbin has been horrendous in 2 starts this year. He wasn't very good last year, so have to wonder if there is a physical issue.
 
NowshesmyRuca

NowshesmyRuca

2
How can anybody back Wainwright with how he's pitched this year? The Over seams to be such an obvious play here makes it a little scary.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
WildBill said:
Yeah I'm sure the first two starts for pitchers tell you exactly how they are going to pitch the rest of the season.
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I would say at least 5-6 starts give a relatively good idea. But it wasn't just the brief 2021 form. Wainwright is about 40 and at the end of the line, and Corbin was coming off a poor 2020. And how about the Nat hitters vs Wainwright history? Sometimes we get it wrong. I'd rather miss by a mile than suffer a tough beat.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
If the Sox and Tribe play tonight, it will be unpleasant playing conditions. I'm about 25 miles from the stadium and we got 5 inches of snow. Its possible Progessive Field didn't get much but will still be around 35 with around 12-15 MPH winds. I wouldn't waste too much time on props for this game. Looks like around 40 at Comerica Park with winds 10-15. Not ideal hitting conditions.
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
MIL + 175

I had SD priced at -130 and it currently sits -195

They are pricing this game as if Lamet has been shoving in perfect form this season. Lamet hasn’t taken the mound since last September with elbow and biceps issues.

MIL looks like an underrated team so far and would be my choice to take the NL central.

I also took MIL F5
 
P

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Although this thread is for baseball a team to start playing is theMinn t wolves. Last night they got back delango russell,donbest didn't even announce it(suprise) and he scored 28 pts in 25 min. T wolves are 6-5 when russell,towns and edwards play together according to the announcers last night, 10-38 when they dont. They gave last nights game ball to the floyd family after the win so that emotion and playing a team back to back is a tough spot. Sac has lost 10 out of 11 games so it may not matter. Im going to play Minn every game until I lose a streak of 3 net units
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Heisenberg said:
MIL + 175

I had SD priced at -130 and it currently sits -195

They are pricing this game as if Lamet has been shoving in perfect form this season. Lamet hasn’t taken the mound since last September with elbow and biceps issues.

MIL looks like an underrated team so far and would be my choice to take the NL central.

I also took MIL F5
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Got Mil +200 right before the game started at FD. Also played Mets-Cubs under 7.5. Neither team lighting up the scoreboard these days.
 
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