Eye on the Markets: Coronavirus Stocks/Investments thread

MrTop

EOG Master
EOG Resources, Inc. explores, develops, produces, and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China, and from time to time select other international areas

I like this one..

ticker : EOG

$69.35




$75.20
 
Its amazing how many said a September correction was coming and sure enough the market starts to show weakness. Shouldn't all these sellers have done their selling weeks ago?
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Its amazing how many said a September correction was coming and sure enough the market starts to show weakness. Shouldn't all these sellers have done their selling weeks ago?




evergrande from china... they are the new lehman brothers
 
and your stocks the last month did ?
Correction off all time highs isn't a crisis. Evergrande is just an excuse for why the market is today, its a risk off correction from a frothy market.

I trimmed my risk mid-August. I'm taking a small hit the last week,, but probably less than half the impact than the market overall. Put more money into TIPs and international bonds, moved some risk assets into REITs and bought up a few cheaper dividend stocks. I don't try to avoid all losses or go to cash as a few people are crowing about today, but in the end it always makes sense to book some winners and reset some parts of your portfolio on a regular basis.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
how many little drops we going to get ? i can't get in with any serious amount yet. Usually we see little drops to test then the big one comes.
 
how many little drops we going to get ? i can't get in with any serious amount yet. Usually we see little drops to test then the big one comes.
We shall see. I think its worth waiting until the end of October to see how things shape up going into the holidays and Q1. Market could get a good bounce if retail investors step in and buy the dip or we get some new version of Gamestop to go after the shorts. If the retail buyer decides to move onto something else could be some more pain ahead. In any case the correction needs to get to at least 10% to really have a cleansing out impact and we ain't anywhere near that yet.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Just listening to Jim Rogers on a podcast. The more things go up now, the harder they will fall. The issues dating back to 2008-2009 haven't been fixed. They just got pushed real far down the road. Rogers believes the next bear market will be the worst of our lifetimes. Just way too much money printing. Look at Japan.....all that money printing and the Nikkei still down 30% over the last 30 years.
 
Just listening to Jim Rogers on a podcast. The more things go up now, the harder they will fall. The issues dating back to 2008-2009 haven't been fixed. They just got pushed real far down the road. Rogers believes the next bear market will be the worst of our lifetimes. Just way too much money printing. Look at Japan.....all that money printing and the Nikkei still down 30% over the last 30 years.
Here's the economic problem with blaming money printing, what's going to stop it? How could it reverse? Money printing only causes a problem when one central bank or country is doing it. When everyone does it, there is no rush out of one to get into another. And right now, there isn't an advanced economy in the world which could handle "taking its medicine" and ending the money printing in a way that wouldn't destroy their own economy. The only way this could go down is if Bitcoin or some crypto suddenly became the only currency anyone was willing to take pretty much worldwide. People have theorized gold could have done this many times in the last century, but its insanity to think a gold-based economy could exist.

A correction or bear market is a certainty in the future, but it always comes from the same general principle of fear leading investors to send their money to whatever they think is the safest haven and accepting less than fair value for their risk assets. If many fear governments and their debt are not safe, where's this money going to flow to?
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Here's the economic problem with blaming money printing, what's going to stop it? How could it reverse? Money printing only causes a problem when one central bank or country is doing it. When everyone does it, there is no rush out of one to get into another. And right now, there isn't an advanced economy in the world which could handle "taking its medicine" and ending the money printing in a way that wouldn't destroy their own economy. The only way this could go down is if Bitcoin or some crypto suddenly became the only currency anyone was willing to take pretty much worldwide. People have theorized gold could have done this many times in the last century, but its insanity to think a gold-based economy could exist.

A correction or bear market is a certainty in the future, but it always comes from the same general principle of fear leading investors to send their money to whatever they think is the safest haven and accepting less than fair value for their risk assets. If many fear governments and their debt are not safe, where's this money going to flow to?

When has money printing ever worked?
 
When has money printing ever worked?
Umm, I don't know. We kind of seem to be living a pretty good life here in the US are we not? Maybe 500 years from now life in the US will suck ass, but I don't think either of us will have to deal with that.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Umm, I don't know. We kind of seem to be living a pretty good life here in the US are we not? Maybe 500 years from now life in the US will suck ass, but I don't think either of us will have to deal with that.

We will see in 25-50 years. There's many who believe there's going to be a huge price to pay, not only from the huge surge in debt the past 18 months, but dating back to 2008-2009. Some of the smartest minds out there feel that way,
 
We will see in 25-50 years. There's many who believe there's going to be a huge price to pay, not only from the huge surge in debt the past 18 months, but dating back to 2008-2009. Some of the smartest minds out there feel that way,
That's what drives a market, opposing opinions. I respect what some of these opinions are saying and take them into consideration, but most of the doomsday people are rooted in faulty thinking that doesn't pass economic logic. Rogers has been close to a permashort on the US which is fine, we all know he's made his money outside US borders.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Umm, I don't know. We kind of seem to be living a pretty good life here in the US are we not? Maybe 500 years from now life in the US will suck ass, but I don't think either of us will have to deal with that.

Usually runaway money printing ends with hyperinflation (e.g. Hindenburg's Germany in 1930s) and/or default in a nation's interest payments (Argentina, et al). The Fed has been using its balance sheet debt to keep interest rates down, but its a ticking time bomb. Demographics are putting the US where Japan was 20 years ago. A rise in interest rates to even normal levels will put just interest payments as a major government expense, forcing a spending reduction in other areas or more money printing.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
EOG Resources, Inc. explores, develops, produces, and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China, and from time to time select other international areas

I like this one..

ticker : EOG

$69.35





ok now 74.96
 

Rockfish

EOG Senior Member
Jim Rogers a very smart guy. He has led a very interesting life. As Wild Bill said Rogers has been bearish on the US stock market for a very long time.
People forget that it was Rogers and George Soros who started the Quantum Fund in 1973. Rogers left the fund in 1980.
 
Usually runaway money printing ends with hyperinflation (e.g. Hindenburg's Germany in 1930s) and/or default in a nation's interest payments (Argentina, et al). The Fed has been using its balance sheet debt to keep interest rates down, but its a ticking time bomb. Demographics are putting the US where Japan was 20 years ago. A rise in interest rates to even normal levels will put just interest payments as a major government expense, forcing a spending reduction in other areas or more money printing.

Those were two situations where a country intentionally printed money for very political reasons along with them seeing no other way out of their situations. I don't think the US or the EU or Japan are printing money today to try to inflate away their debts. These two situations are extremely well studied in any university economics program, its not like everyone in charge at the Fed or the Treasury don't know about them.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Those were two situations where a country intentionally printed money for very political reasons along with them seeing no other way out of their situations. I don't think the US or the EU or Japan are printing money today to try to inflate away their debts. These two situations are extremely well studied in any university economics program, its not like everyone in charge at the Fed or the Treasury don't know about them.

Clearly, the US and Japan aren't even close to the end game yet. The EU got somewhat close with the bailout of the PIGS, especially Greece, but Greece's economy is so small it was easy to "fix" despite its debt. Much of the federal spending now is almost completely political with pork, large bailouts, earmarks, etc. It won't be until Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and Interest on the Debt become larger that the chickens really come home to roost.
 
Clearly, the US and Japan aren't even close to the end game yet. The EU got somewhat close with the bailout of the PIGS, especially Greece, but Greece's economy is so small it was easy to "fix" despite its debt. Much of the federal spending now is almost completely political with pork, large bailouts, earmarks, etc. It won't be until Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and Interest on the Debt become larger that the chickens really come home to roost.

Certainly there could be higher risk associated with government debt which raises rates in the future. The thing is most people don't understand what most sovereign debt is. It is a debt that really there is no intention to ever fully pay it back. The people who say debt is going to wreck the economy always like to say that's your grandkids debt and try to equate it to a person or a family's behavior. But this is 100% fantasy, none of these governments will ever pay their debt. Sovereign debt is designed to last close to "forever", it just gets rolled over time and again. In fact if it were to be paid down, there would be some quite disconcerting consequences. If there was no US or EU debt, much of the world would be at a loss of where to put their funds and the markets would be lost trying to figure out what the risk free rate of debt was in the two largest economic blocks. Furthermore, what exactly would the world do if one of the two actually defaulted? There is no workout provisions for them, the world cannot comprehend the idea. This is why the Evergrande blowup is pretty much a minor event outside Chinese borders. Its impossible to comprehend how China could let this company go into true liquidation phase with no intervention, the Chinese government and economy has no real way to comprehend how this would work.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Certainly there could be higher risk associated with government debt which raises rates in the future. The thing is most people don't understand what most sovereign debt is. It is a debt that really there is no intention to ever fully pay it back. The people who say debt is going to wreck the economy always like to say that's your grandkids debt and try to equate it to a person or a family's behavior. But this is 100% fantasy, none of these governments will ever pay their debt. Sovereign debt is designed to last close to "forever", it just gets rolled over time and again. In fact if it were to be paid down, there would be some quite disconcerting consequences. If there was no US or EU debt, much of the world would be at a loss of where to put their funds and the markets would be lost trying to figure out what the risk free rate of debt was in the two largest economic blocks. Furthermore, what exactly would the world do if one of the two actually defaulted? There is no workout provisions for them, the world cannot comprehend the idea. This is why the Evergrande blowup is pretty much a minor event outside Chinese borders. Its impossible to comprehend how China could let this company go into true liquidation phase with no intervention, the Chinese government and economy has no real way to comprehend how this would work.

This is just several straw man nonsense arguments, absolutely irrelevant. In my post, I don't mention eliminating all debt (very unlikely, but it was discussed in Congress in the 90's back when Clinton/Gingrich balanced the budget and actually paid back some debt), never did I mention China (although in the past, Mao and the CCP killed tens of millions with its agricultural Great Leap Forward). I don't even mention what the "workout" might entail, but it probably would be quite a political fight among the various special interests to choose from a mix of inflate the $, mark down bonds and modest austerity.
 
This is just several straw man nonsense arguments, absolutely irrelevant. In my post, I don't mention eliminating all debt (very unlikely, but it was discussed in Congress in the 90's back when Clinton/Gingrich balanced the budget and actually paid back some debt), never did I mention China (although in the past, Mao and the CCP killed tens of millions with its agricultural Great Leap Forward). I don't even mention what the "workout" might entail, but it probably would be quite a political fight among the various special interests to choose from a mix of inflate the $, mark down bonds and modest austerity.
I wasn't speaking to your arguments specifically, just referring to what I hear endlessly out there.
 
This is just several straw man nonsense arguments, absolutely irrelevant. In my post, I don't mention eliminating all debt (very unlikely, but it was discussed in Congress in the 90's back when Clinton/Gingrich balanced the budget and actually paid back some debt), never did I mention China (although in the past, Mao and the CCP killed tens of millions with its agricultural Great Leap Forward). I don't even mention what the "workout" might entail, but it probably would be quite a political fight among the various special interests to choose from a mix of inflate the $, mark down bonds and modest austerity.
And yes you are 100% correct here, political fights keep us from solving any of these issues. How you fix any of these things is simply a mix of tax rate changes, eligibility changes and payout changes. None of those are politically palatable untll they become necessary. As in most of the lawmakers say I'll let the next person in my seat take the heat for those whenever it comes up. Yes the debt being paid was discussed in the 90s for about a year, but then W came in and said screw that, lets give this money back to taxpayers and go into deficit again. Proved to be far more politically popular, those tax cuts probably got him re-elected.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Certainly there could be higher risk associated with government debt which raises rates in the future. The thing is most people don't understand what most sovereign debt is. It is a debt that really there is no intention to ever fully pay it back. The people who say debt is going to wreck the economy always like to say that's your grandkids debt and try to equate it to a person or a family's behavior. But this is 100% fantasy, none of these governments will ever pay their debt. Sovereign debt is designed to last close to "forever", it just gets rolled over time and again. In fact if it were to be paid down, there would be some quite disconcerting consequences. If there was no US or EU debt, much of the world would be at a loss of where to put their funds and the markets would be lost trying to figure out what the risk free rate of debt was in the two largest economic blocks. Furthermore, what exactly would the world do if one of the two actually defaulted? There is no workout provisions for them, the world cannot comprehend the idea. This is why the Evergrande blowup is pretty much a minor event outside Chinese borders. Its impossible to comprehend how China could let this company go into true liquidation phase with no intervention, the Chinese government and economy has no real way to comprehend how this would work.

Egon Von Greyerz definitely doesn't agree:

1632401557942.png
 
all the big companies are leaving " Jina ". Just get out. Don't listen to dialio

Lots of money to be made there, but big companies are just easy targets to steal from. They wisely pulled up stakes and got out of there, but they went there in the first place because the stock markets were telling them they had to do it or get punished.
 

MrTop

EOG Master

Most Americans Today Believe the Stock Market Is Rigged, and They’re Right’​

New research shows insider trading is everywhere. So far, no one seems to care.

Filler is the most successful corporate insider in the U.S., according to TipRanks, a data company that rates executives by how good they are at timing trades. As a result of this status, every time Filler buys a share in ServisFirst or Century, 2,699 TipRanks subscribers get an alert. Some of them, assuming Filler’s past performance will continue, follow suit and buy some stock for themselves.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
All you can say is well then go super short and let us know how that works out for you.

I think Mr Top's comment in the post above says it well. Going super short way too dangerous. Nobody can trust Powell or the Fed. Look at the precious metals market. With all the money printing,, gold and silver should've exploded. Then you see JP Morgan gets fined a billion dollars for manipulation of the precious metals market. And I'm sure they happily wrote that off a cost of doing "business".
 

MrTop

EOG Master
China has another debt problem on its hands. The nation’s hidden local government debt has swelled to more than half the size of the Chinese economy, according to Goldman Sachs.
 
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