Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#1
Any questions fire away.... Im going to try and run this thread for a while. I think the season still has about (+50 units) of profit left.

6 chances only, to win one game, plays come from 1 of 2 systems that i use and both are undefeated on the season.


Chase 1
a) pirates Over 9 (-1.15) $58 to win $50

Chase 2
a) cubs Over 9.5 (-1.20) $60 to win $50

cubs is game 1 of DH (murton/marquis)....


SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#5
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

thanks Junk

Thread record: 1-0 (+$50) (closed chases only)

plays for wednesday night Aug 13

chase 1
a) pitt Over 9 (-1.15) $58 to win $50

chase 3
a) marlins Over 8.5 (-1.05) $53 to win $50

thats it for wednesday

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#6
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

provided they finish in florida tonight..

Thread Record: 2-0 (+$100) (closed chases only) (1 pending)

play for thursday aug 14

chase 1
b) pirates Over 9 (-1.20) (greek)(snell/cueto) $130 to win $108

back on thursday to open a new chase.

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

here we go for thursday.

Record for this thread: 2-0 (+$100) (1 pending)

plays for thursday aug 14

chase 1
b) pirates Over 9 (-1.20) $130 to win $108

chase 4
a) cubs Over 9.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

chase 5
a) oakland Under 7.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

that is all for thursday, these are all from the "action chase" system, there were no plays today for the (o/u system) for those that know what im referring too..

SSI
 

goldie

EOG Enthusiast
#8
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

How does your system determine what the plays are in the action chase?. I understand how plays are generated in the o/u system.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#9
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

very quickly....... you know what the (o/u) chase is.......... the action chase is really 2 parts....... one is an opinion but the other is, when a team has played 4 straight (o/u), then ill go with the team to continue the streak to game 5......... if they dont the streak will end and i wont have 2 working. if they do, then i win and set up the next chase also..

example...... going into last night, the cubs had played 4 straight Overs, so i play them Over last night............ it won, so i collect my unit and they have now played 5 straight Overs, so i get to play them Under today.

the opinion side of it,,,,,,,,, is when i select my best play, when absolutely nothing else has qualified for the day...... no more than one or two open at a time, on the opinion..

on to friday...

Thread record: 3-0 (+$150) (closed chases only)

fridays plays (aug 15)

chase 1
c) pitt Over 9 (-1.10) $262 to win $238

chase 5
b) oak Under 8.5 (-1.10) $115 to win $105

chase 6
a) seattle Over 8.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

chase 7
a) cubs Under 8 (-1.05) $53 to win $50

that looks to be all for today..

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#10
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread Record: 4-0 (+$200) (3 pending)

plays for saturday august 16

chase 1
d) pitt Over 9.5 (-1.10) $440 to win $400

chase 5
c) oakland Under 8 (+1.00) $221 to win $221

chase 7
b) cubs Under 9.5 (-1.10) $114 to win $103

chase 8
a) seattle Under 9 (-1.30) $65 to win $50

chase 9
a) reds Under 9.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

no additions..

SSI
 
#14
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

SSI, I'm sure its been asked before or maybe you have stated it somewhere but what size bankroll do you use for these chases?

The reason I ask is because at any given time you could have a huge amount of your roll in play.

For example on the 3 pending series you have lost $613 and today you are putting $895 in new bets in play. That is $1508 total out of your roll.

If all five of those series lose today, not likely but possible, then you will be in for at least $3000 tomorrow or 60 units. Two more losing days in a row and you will be laying out over 200 units to win 5 units.

I'll admit that it is very unlikely that all 5 will lose for another two days but it could happen. Just seems like a lot of risk for little return. I would think that you would need at least 500 units in your bankroll to make this work.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#15
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

i keep at least (200 units)........

ive done several things this season but what is posted here, comes from 2 systems that ive been playing all season........ combined 145-0 on the season......

i have the money set aside to do this and carry it out.......... i think they will all win, before any of them lose 6 in a row...

this style of play is not for everyone, only try it, if your comfortable.

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#16
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Lefthook, i started this thread on aug 13, i believed i could make (50) more units (+$2500) before the season ended... i still belive that ill do that.

i honestly think i can play this year round in (baseball, hockey and the nba) and clear $1500 per month, rather easily... not going to get rich but a nice litted addition...

i spend about 15 minutes each day with this... no need to spend hours capping, only to be wrong..........

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#17
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

working exactly as it should..

Thread Record: 7-0 (+$350) (2 pending)

back on sunday..

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread Record: 7-0 (+$350) (2 pending)

plays for sunday aug 17

chase 8
b) seattle Under 9.5 (-1.10) $127 to win $115

chase 9
b) reds Under 9 (-1.20) $126 to win $105

chase 10
a) redsox Over 8.5 (-1.05) $53 to win $50

running a little ahead of schedule for the start of this... a nice (+7 units) per week is what im shooting for..

no additions today... best part of this is that it brings discipline and structure to your betting. no more wishy-washy last minute plays, you know ahead of time, what your plan is and your next wager, thens simply trust in your plan and carry it out....

Life is much simplier these days..

SSI
 
#19
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

SSI, I understand your point about simplicity and it appears that it can work in grinding out a nice little profit per week.

I guess my concern is that having 5 series open, for example, that all go to the 4th or 5th game, your going to be very heavily invested just to salvage a 1 unit win. There is a fine line about playing enough series to make it worthwhile and not playing too many to have your bankroll too far extended.

The other concern is the inevitable 6 game loss that will wipe out 2 1/2 months of profits. If it works for you, great.
 
#20
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

On a side not, have you thought about parlaying the total you need with the favorite or dog of the game. You might have to handicap a little and it might not produce as many series wins but it would reduce your exposure to a huge loss and many of those parlay wins would payoff greater then 1 unit.
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
#21
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Taken from wizardofodds

<CENTER> </CENTER><CENTER> </CENTER><CENTER>The Martingale</CENTER>

Every week I receive two or three emails asking me about the betting system by which a player doubles his/her bet after a loss. This system is generally played with an even money game such as the red/black bet in roulette or the pass/don't pass bet in craps and is known as the Martingale. The idea is that by doubling your bet after a loss, you would always win enough to cover all past losses plus one unit. For example if a player starts at $1 and loses four bets in a row, winning on the fifth, he will have lost $1+$2+$4+$8 = $15 on the four losing bets and won $16 on the fifth bet. The losses were covered and he had a profit of $1. The problem is that it is easier than you think to lose several bets in a row and run out of betting money after you've doubled it all away.
In order to prove this point I created a program that simulated two systems, the Martingale and flat betting, and applied each by betting on the pass line in craps (which has a 49.29% probability of winning). The Martingale bettor would always start with a $1 bet and start the session with $255 which is enough to cover 8 losses in a row. The flat bettor would bet $1 every time. The Martingale player would play for 100 bets, or until he couldn't cover the amount of a bet. In that case he would stop playing and leave with the money he had left. In the event his 100th bet was a loss, he would keep betting until he either won a bet or couldn't cover the next bet. The person flat betting would play 100 bets every time. I repeated this experiment for 1,000,000 sessions for both systems and tabulated the results. The graph below shows the results:
<CENTER>
</CENTER>As you can see, the flat bettor has a bell curve with a peak at a loss of $1, and never strays very far from that peak. Usually the Martingale bettor would show a profit represented by the bell curve on the far right, peaking at $51; however, on the far left we see those times when he couldn't cover a bet and walked away with a substantial loss. That happened for 19.65% of the sessions. Many believers in the Martingale mistakenly believe that the many wins will more than cover the few loses.
In this experiment the average session loss for the flat bettor was $1.12, but was $4.20 for the Martingale bettor. In both cases the ratio of money lost to money won was very close to 7/495, which is the house edge on the pass line bet in craps. This is not coincidental. No matter what system is used in the long run, this ratio will always approach the house edge. To prove this point consider the Martingale player on the pass line in craps who only desires to win $1, starts with a bet of $1, and has a bankroll of $2,047 to cover as many as 10 consecutive losses. The table below shows all possible outcomes with each probability, expected bet, and return.
<CENTER><TABLE class=contenttable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 bgColor=#e0d18b border=1><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Possible outcomes of Martingale up to ten losing bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Number
of losses
</TD><TD align=middle>Final
outcome
</TD><TD align=middle>Highest
bet
</TD><TD align=middle>Total
bet
</TD><TD align=middle>Net
outcome
</TD><TD align=middle>Probability
</TD><TD align=middle>Expected
bet
</TD><TD align=middle>Expected
return
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>0
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.49292929
</TD><TD align=right>0.49292929
</TD><TD align=right>0.49292929
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>2
</TD><TD align=right>3
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.24995001
</TD><TD align=right>0.74985002
</TD><TD align=right>0.24995001
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>2
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>4
</TD><TD align=right>7
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.12674233
</TD><TD align=right>0.88719628
</TD><TD align=right>0.12674233
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>3
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>8
</TD><TD align=right>15
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.06426732
</TD><TD align=right>0.96400981
</TD><TD align=right>0.06426732
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>4
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>16
</TD><TD align=right>31
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.03258808
</TD><TD align=right>1.01023035
</TD><TD align=right>0.03258808
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>5
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>32
</TD><TD align=right>63
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.01652446
</TD><TD align=right>1.04104089
</TD><TD align=right>0.01652446
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>6
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>64
</TD><TD align=right>127
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.00837907
</TD><TD align=right>1.06414175
</TD><TD align=right>0.00837907
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>7
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>128
</TD><TD align=right>255
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.00424878
</TD><TD align=right>1.08343900
</TD><TD align=right>0.00424878
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>8
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>256
</TD><TD align=right>511
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.00215443
</TD><TD align=right>1.10091479
</TD><TD align=right>0.00215443
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>9
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>512
</TD><TD align=right>1023
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.00109245
</TD><TD align=right>1.11757574
</TD><TD align=right>0.00109245
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>10
</TD><TD align=middle>Win
</TD><TD align=right>1024
</TD><TD align=right>2047
</TD><TD align=right>1
</TD><TD align=right>0.00055395
</TD><TD align=right>1.13393379
</TD><TD align=right>0.00055395
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>10
</TD><TD align=middle>Loss
</TD><TD align=right>1024
</TD><TD align=right>2047
</TD><TD align=right>-2047
</TD><TD align=right>0.00056984
</TD><TD align=right>1.16646467
</TD><TD align=right>-1.16646467
</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Total
</TD><TD align=right>1.00000000
</TD><TD align=right>11.81172639
</TD><TD align=right>-0.16703451
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>The expected bet is the product of the total bet and the probability. Likewise, the expected return is the product of the total return and the probability. The last row shows this Martingale bettor to have had an average total bet of 11.81172639 and an average loss of 0.16703451. Dividing the average loss by the average bet yields .01414141. We now divide 7 by 495 ( the house edge on the pass line) and we again get 0.01414141! This shows that the Martingale is neither better nor worse than flat betting when measured by the ratio of expected loss to expected bet. All betting systems are equal to flat betting when compared this way, as they should be. In other words, all betting systems are equally worthless.




The bottom line of this is that if you can't beat the books betting flat then the martingale system isn't going to work. If one works, the other will work, that is common sense. There is no advantage to chasing your bets. In the long run you will end up right where you would have been if you just flat betted (unless you chased too much and in that case lose more than you can afford to lose). Which makes flat betting the more preffered method because you don't have to deal with the swings and the sickly large betting amounts that could put you into retirement from gambling.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#22
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Lefthook, i havent thought about parlaying the side and total that i need. not saying it wont work but im just not into it...

as for having too many series open............ you are spot on with that... but remember what your seeing here is a combo of 2 systems....... however, i dont want many open at one time...

as i said, this is definately not for everybody.... one loss is going to hit you for around (-70 units)......... however if you go (200-1) in the course of a season, it will be worth it.. in this scenario, id clear around $6500 on baseball and that is plenty for me, with what im trying to do here...

i plan on running a NHL thread and an NBA thread, along with finishing out the MLB season in this thread, so you will get to see my first and inevitable loss, somewhere along the way..

as i said, i spend only minutes per day with us and i like it that way.... we will see how it continues to go..

good luck to you...

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#23
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Tool, about 75-80% of what you see in this thread will be from a mechanical system, as far as selection goes and i think this will be the difference... and it is all mechancial, once the chase starts...

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#24
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread record: 8-0 (+$400) (2 pending)

mondays plays (aug 18)

chase 8
c) sea Under 9 (-1.05) $254 to win $242


chase 11
a) redsox Over 8.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

thats all for monday

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#25
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread record: 9-0 (+$450) (2 pending)

plays for tuesday aug 19

chase 8
d) mariners Under 9 (+1.00) $496 to win $496

chase 9
c) reds Under 7 (-1.10) $254 to win $231

no additions..


SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#27
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

thanks BW....... i have come to trust in this system and way of wagering a great deal........

just a "ho hum" $550 the last 6 days..

Thread Record: 11-0 (+$550) (0 pending)

back on wednesday

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#29
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

thanks BW, people will be surprised at how well this system will do.... you just have to be disciplined and mechanical in your actions.. use your bankroll to its best advantage...

Thread Record: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (+$550) (0 pending)

plays for wednesday aug 20

chase 12
a) seattle Over 10.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

chase 13
a) marlins Over 7.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

no additions..

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#31
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

BW, i hardly ever cap the games.... Im very disconneted from sports right now... I am trading the SP market very heavily right now but its also a mechanical system as well...

You would not belive how well i have done since around the 4th of July.... I went to a 100% mechanical way of betting and trading and i havent looked back since.. I do not have a system for football at the moment.. I really need to work on something over the next week or so..

Good luck today BW...


SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#32
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

BW, throw another one on the pile....... sea easily Over the total.. one pending for wednesday night..

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#33
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread Record: 13-0 (+13.00 units) (+$650) (0 pending)

plays for thursday aug 21

chase 14
a) marlins Over 8.5 (-1.05) $53 to win $50

chase 15
a) mariners Over 8.5 (+1.00) $50 to win $50


running a little ahead of the projected goal, currently up (+13.00 units) in 8 days.. my goal for this style of wagering is (+1.00 unit) daily.

no reason to think this thread wont be at (+50.00 units) (+$2500) by the end of the season..

no additions..


SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#34
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread Record: 13-0 (+13.00 units) (+$650) (2 pending)

fridays plays aug 22

chase 14
b) fla Over 9 (-1.10) $112 to win $103

chase 15
b) sea Over 9 (-1.10) $110 to win $100

chase 16
a) kc Over 9.5 (-1.05) $53 to win $50

thats it..

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#35
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Looks like (1-1-1) on friday..

Thread Record: 14-0 (+14.00 units) (+$700) (2 pending)


waiting on the lines now. looks like we will have 4 plays for saturday.... 2 that are on play (b) and 2 that are just starting.

back later with the plays.

SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#36
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

saturdays plays (aug 23)

chase 14
b) marlins Over 9.5 (+1.00) $103 to win $103

this chase Pushed last night, so we are still on play (b)

chase 16
b) kc Over 10.5 (-1.10) $112 to win $103 (Local Line)

chase 17
a) clev Over 12 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

chase 18
a) phillies Under 8.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50




thats all for today.... this thread will run until the end of the season. projected goal (+50 units) (+$2500)

at that time, i am going to start an NHL thread as we will be getting ready for the NHL season..

if you have never thought of playing this way, id suggest starting small and giving it a try......... it takes just minutes each day, it keeps you in the game and its pretty much all mechanical..


SSI
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#38
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

Thread Record: 15-0 (+15.00 units) (+$750) (3 pending)

plays for sunday aug 24

chase 14
c) fish Over 9 (-1.05) $216 to win $206

chase 16
c) royals Over 10.5 (-1.20) $258 to win $215

chase 18
b) phils Under 9 (-1.05) $111 to win $105

chase 19
a) indians Under 11.5 (-1.10) $55 to win $50

back on monday

SSI
 

tool21

EOG Dedicated
#39
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

SSI, could you start posting how many games deep a chase is?? It would benefit other posters if we would know when one of your chases is due.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#40
Re: Mr. Mechanical's Chases Baseball

tool, just go by the lettering...........

a = game 1
b = game 2
c = game 3
d = game 4
e = game 5
f = game 6

thats it, if game 6 (play f) loses, the chase is a loss....... it will cost you roughly (-70 units)....

SSI
 
Top