Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development

munson15

I want winners...
#1
Amazing results, I've been meaning to delve into this for a while, since I already love playing home dogs in bases. The results for the American League in the year 2003 were------------------

W79 L95 +25.15 units
 

munson15

I want winners...
#2
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Going to add as I have time.:cheers
 
#3
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

What made you go back to 03 munson?
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
#4
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Nice...good stuff Munson.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#5
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

What made you go back to 03 munson?
It is the earliest data I have to research. I am hopefully going to have time to do the other seasons up to the present and give you a more complete picture. I've read in several quarters that divisional home dogs in MLB do well, and I'm testing it out.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#7
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I'm about 1/2 through the 2003 NL divisional homoe dogs, and they look so good, I'm hoping the numbers fall off so it doesn't look ridiculous.:smoking2:
 

munson15

I want winners...
#8
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Wow, just a hit a couple of bad teams, so this should look realistic at least.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#9
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

2003 National League home dogs------------

W92 L111, +15.00 units

So, in a season when home dogs were outstanding overall, netting nearly 28 units, divisional home dogs outperformed them by 12 units. I'll move to the next season and report back with those figures.
 
#10
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Thanks munson, will be nice to see what next season shows.
 
#11
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Munson if the year you are doing now shows profit and you wanna divy up some years to present so you are not stuck doing it all yourself let us know, this would be nice info to see.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#12
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Munson if the year you are doing now shows profit and you wanna divy up some years to present so you are not stuck doing it all yourself let us know, this would be nice info to see.
If there were a computerized way to do this, I could use some help on 2008. After that, I'll let you know. All I am interested in is the divisional home dogs in each league, and the overall home dog record, so I know if the divisional home dogs outperformed the rest. Thanks.:cheers

p.s. I'll get to work on 2004 ASAP.
 
#13
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

If there were a computerized way to do this, I could use some help on 2008. After that, I'll let you know. All I am interested in is the divisional home dogs in each league, and the overall home dog record, so I know if the divisional home dogs outperformed the rest. Thanks.:cheers

p.s. I'll get to work on 2004 ASAP.

Dumb question what about interleague play, count it?
 

munson15

I want winners...
#14
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Yes, for the overall number. Basically, I'm trying to get four sets of numbers for each season. 1)Divisional Home Dogs in the AL. 2)Divisional Home Dogs in the NL. 3)Total Home Dogs in the AL. 4)Total Home Dogs in the NL. Count the interleague games, thanks.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#15
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Just found my 2002 book, this ought to be interesting because the home dogs overall were a slight losing proposition.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#16
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

2002 American League home dogs were 184-255, for a net loss of 7.30 units. Divisional home dogs, on the other hand, went 83-111 for a slightly higher 43%. The good news is, many of those winning AL divisional home dogs carried huge prices due to facing Pedro Martinez and the great Yankee staff of that year. So, the bottom line was an impressive +12.15 units. These divisional home dogs outperformed overall home dogs by nearly 20 units. I'll try the NL for 2002 next.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#17
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF 2003 HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

2002 NL Divisional home dogs went 89-108 for a +12.45 unit net. Overall, home dogs in the NL went 172-214 for a -1.55 unit season. I'm going to continue to add to this as I have time. First two seasons checked were exceptionally good, so good, in fact, that it makes me skeptical of the data. I am doing this manually using each year's edition of the Baseball Insight Annual.
 

waco

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I am very interested in this. Thanks.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#19
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I am very interested in this. Thanks.
Waco, I am having a hard time deciphering the data from my source book. They mentioned something about their program not changing lines and possibly being biased by 10 cents toward the dogs. I have to make sure I can be confident in these numbers before I go forward with more seasons info.

Would love to have someone backtest the two seasons I posted to see if my data is polluted or clean. Am presently looking for a source I can double check my figures with, I think the home divisional dogs do still outperform all home dogs, my question is being certain by how much.
 
#20
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

thurman, nice info here and i think you are on the right track to something that could be usable for yourself or anyone interested.

in looking at just your 2002 data i would need to wager $19,700 to win $1,245 on NL divisional dogs and $19,400 to win $1,215 on AL divisional dogs (all based on $100 wagers). in total: $39,100 to win $2,460. not an ROI guy per se, but it would seem to fall a little over 6% ROI. any profit is a GOOD profit but maybe another filter could be added to get the return up a bit higher. don't have an idea for you for a filter as of yet but maybe someone else could suggest something in moving forward. best of luck with this.
 
#21
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Nice job with this, Mike! I've always wondered about this. Seems like a good angle - probably just a matter of riding out the long run of a season with it and the right money management.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#22
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

OK, I just hit a roadblock, and its name is 2005. Divisional Home Dogs went 135-178 (43.1%) for a loss of 2.83 units. This was data from my actual bets that year. Worse than that, home dogs overall went 313-395 (44.2%) and netted +8.74 units. So, non-divisional home dogs went 178-217 (45.1%) and made a profit of 11-1/2 units. Things to ponder as I plod forward.:smoking2:
 

munson15

I want winners...
#23
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Don't ask me why I skipped 2004. I have a book for that, too and will post the results when I have time to add it all up. I do all this manually, and I trust the results much more when it comes from my actual book of bets for the season. The 2002-03 results were from a source book, namely Baseball Insight. Please be patient, I will try to post everything I have by the end of the month.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#24
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Any night after August 1st, where there is at least 4 games on the schedule, play on the biggest moneyline favorite, not on the moneyline, on the -1.5 runline.

Most of the time your laying odds like -1.5 -115 or -1.5 +110.

I'll save you the time:

AUGUST 2nd through August 31st:

26-4 86.7%


[Saving Ned's baseball runline system.]
 
#26
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Any night after August 1st, where there is at least 4 games on the schedule, play on the biggest moneyline favorite, not on the moneyline, on the -1.5 runline.

Most of the time your laying odds like -1.5 -115 or -1.5 +110.

I'll save you the time:

AUGUST 2nd through August 31st:

26-4 86.7%


[Saving Ned's baseball runline system.]
How did this do in months other than August?

Also, searched for "Ned's baseball runline system", but could not find it. Can you help?

Thank you for your response.
 
#27
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

hey munson, i've been flat betting homedogs since the '03 season[including interleague]. i never even considered just betting divisional games, that's an amazing improvement over what i already thought was a very solid play, i was wondering if these were less streaky than betting all homedogs, it seems that they would be with the higher winning percentage. also, i want to make absolutely sure i understand that this subset is strictly nl east teams vs. nl east teams, al west teams vs. al west teams etc. thanks in advance, i wish i could help you with the tallying but i just recorded wins and losses and dollar amounts, i didn't record who played who, just an overall win'loss record and dollar total for all homedogs.i think it's great what you're doing here, this is exactly what this forum should be about, i can't wait to see more year's data, thanks again, lvman
 

munson15

I want winners...
#28
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

hey munson, i've been flat betting homedogs since the '03 season[including interleague]. i never even considered just betting divisional games, that's an amazing improvement over what i already thought was a very solid play, i was wondering if these were less streaky than betting all homedogs, it seems that they would be with the higher winning percentage. also, i want to make absolutely sure i understand that this subset is strictly nl east teams vs. nl east teams, al west teams vs. al west teams etc. thanks in advance, i wish i could help you with the tallying but i just recorded wins and losses and dollar amounts, i didn't record who played who, just an overall win'loss record and dollar total for all homedogs.i think it's great what you're doing here, this is exactly what this forum should be about, i can't wait to see more year's data, thanks again, lvman
Yes, the divisional setup you describe is what I am angling for. I am working on another season and hoep to have it posted very soon.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#29
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

How did this do in months other than August?

Also, searched for "Ned's baseball runline system", but could not find it. Can you help?

Thank you for your response.
Only good for August as that is when teams start to give up on the season.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#30
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Here are the 2004 stats from my actual betting records. After setting a blistering pace for more than 1/2 the year, home divisional dogs cooled off significantly in the last 1/3 of 2004 to wind up at 155-197 (44%). The net was +11.81 units. The season overall saw home dogs go 321-426 (43%), so non-divisional home dogs were 166-229 (42%). I believe there is money to be made by betting home divisional dogs, but the end of year stats trouble me.
 
#31
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Munson, thanks for doing all this research, I know it is tidious, but it will eventually pay off in the long run.
 
#32
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Hi I think in baseball that after Aug 15 to many teams are tossing in the towel and distorting the stats. Balt last year collapsed after Aug 15 losing something like 19 out of 24. I think same concept applies to baskets nba and hockey that teams just send it in. You have to make money first half of year. appreciate the time you are taking on this proect. thanks bob
 

munson15

I want winners...
#33
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I appreciate it guys, I'll try to get as many seasons posted as I have time for.
 
#34
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Thanks for the work Munson. These things seem like no brainers but few have the time to get the actual numbers and they often times dont really hold water in the long run. These results will get another chapter in my notebook. Nice to know they are confirmed with real money lines.
 
#35
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Hi I was interested in the Nats and SanD for last year. SO I checked the stats at covers against div rivals. april and may nats were 1-2 -,82 of a unit. sand was 1-1 + 1.4 units. June was interleague play noaction July and Aug nats were 0-6 and san d was 3-1. Sand with peavy was often a home fav. My conclusion is if these teams can break even as home dogs then system ought to be great for divisional play. hope this helps i didnt do other teams or all games. I like systems with less plays so the divisional concept is right up my alley regards heart 222
 

munson15

I want winners...
#36
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Unless my data takes a turn for the worse, I am seriously considering extra weight being given to home divisional dogs.
 
#37
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Unless my data takes a turn for the worse, I am seriously considering extra weight being given to home divisional dogs.
you should. especially when you pick your spots. It's one of the reasons I play almost all dogs. a lot of times you can get +170 or more on a division rival, even with the pitching disparity I'm taking the dog a lot of times. works similarly with road dogs, but that is more closely tied in with short favorites so the payout is less and 'true' dog status isn't reached on some of those. In other words a road favorite is -102 when they should be -120. they might not show up as dog but they might as well be, and you can get really good runlines on -120 road dogs sometimes. One spot in particular is when a fairly unknown pitcher has a phenomenal year, it takes a while for the number to catch up with him. It's not too hard to spot those guys with WHIP etc.
 
#38
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

by just eliminating the really bad teams later in the season, in situations where they just don't have someone pitching, I think that increases the hold a lot more for the subset. you might take a shot on these dogs when they have their staff ace on the mound, but with KC etc during the last couple of months of the year it just didn't seem a very profitable thing to do. Somewhat similar to taking the big DD moneylines in the (keyword) end of season NBA right now.
 
#39
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

I think the value is in the opposite side, Road Dogs in Division Rivalries. Here are my numbers for betting the Dog in any division rivalry.

1999 242 312 $ 1,215.86 43.7%
2000 253 288 $ 5,694.48 46.8%
2002 354 493 $ (914.38) 41.8%
2003 350 447 $ 5,980.10 43.9%
2004 414 584 $ (940.00) 41.5%
2005 334 409 $ 3,558.39 45.0%
2006 375 470 $ 1,041.06 44.4%
2007 335 401 $ 3,695.68 45.5%
2008 356 436 $ 2,162.99 44.9%
3336 4258 $21,349.55

This was an average line of +135. 2001 is missing due to flawed data.

Breaking it down even further.

Only betting Home Dogs in Division Rival Games

1999 77 108 $(1,342.14) 41.6%
2000 89 85 $ 2,847.48 51.1%
2002 142 182 $ (352.38) 43.8%
2003 152 161 $ 3,592.10 48.6%
2004 207 292 $ (470.00) 41.5%
2005 88 119 $ (833.39) 42.5%
2006 131 143 $ 1,300.98 47.8%
2007 109 136 $ (660.02) 44.5%
2008 106 121 $ (52.89) 46.7%
1219 1509 $ 1,784.11


And only betting Away Dogs in Division Rival Games

1999 165 204 $ 2,558.00 2.43 44.7%
2000 164 203 $ 2,847.00 2.44 44.7%
2002 212 311 $ (562.00) 2.48 40.5%
2003 198 286 $ 2,388.00 2.57 40.9%
2004 207 292 $ (470.00) 2.45 41.5%
2005 246 290 $ 4,391.78 2.39 45.9%
2006 244 327 $ (259.92) 2.39 42.7%
2007 226 265 $ 4,355.70 2.38 46.0%
2008 250 315 $ 2,215.88 2.39 44.2%
2117 2749 $19,565.43


All of the above is based on closing lines and no bets after September 1st.

I like the Away Dog value.

Just my 2 cents

Big Happy
 
#40
Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

Re: JUST COMPLETED A STUDY OF HOME DIVISIONAL DOGS

interesting stats on the road dog theory. only teams that worry me are nats and sand types. also think Aug 15th is end of season for me. thanks again you have changed my thinking wasthinking home dogs. good luck heart222
 
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