NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

566 SEMO un 132.5

523 Wisc GB ov 136

515 Valpo ov 140

507 Michigan ov 128

I am stepping away from the keyboard. This is the final AM plays.
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

512 Fla Atl un 145.5

510 Seton Hall un 161.5

534 W. Kentucky -10

518 Wright St -12

513 C. Mich +6.5

507 Michigan +8.5

505 Umass ov 145

519 Butler ov 133

525 Fla Int ov 139

527 N Texas ov 129

566 SEMO un 132.5

523 Wisc GB ov 136

515 Valpo ov 140

507 Michigan ov 128

528 New Orleans +7 **

504 Denver under 206 ** (NBA)
 
royalfan

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

OSU COWBOYS said:
First of all let me say THANK YOU for the direction this thread has stayed in. Extremely positive, up beat, and drama free. I appreciate everyone letting this experience be a positive one for me.

Next, Royalfan.... as you can see I produce about 4-1 good closes to bad ones. So, when the time comes that I get the worst of it (15.5% of the time so far in this thread) I just suck it up and pray for the best. (Not literally)

There are many other wagers I make during the day that are not posted in this thread. I dont post them here as the lines have moved and it would benefit no one.

I know from experience if I can either push or beat the closer 80+% of the time I will make money. It's impossible not too in a mid to high volume market. 12io4j2w90
Click to expand...

Cool. Thanks. When I am in that spot I usually try to get out of it but man it sucks when you middle yourself. Good luck today with your big card.
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

537 Wash +5

512 Fla Atl un 145.5

510 Seton Hall un 161.5

534 W. Kentucky -10

518 Wright St -12

513 C. Mich +6.5

507 Michigan +8.5

505 Umass ov 145

519 Butler ov 133

525 Fla Int ov 139

527 N Texas ov 129

566 SEMO un 132.5

523 Wisc GB ov 136

515 Valpo ov 140

507 Michigan ov 128

528 New Orleans +7 **

504 Denver under 206 ** (NBA)

That's a wrap. GL gentlemen.
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

Thursdays results:

Daily Actual = 7-10 (-4.0 UNITS)

Daily vs closers = 8-1-8

MTD Actual = 54-50-2 (-1.0 UNITS / 51.9%)

MTD VS Closers = 62-14-30

Hitting a stretch where the closers aren't producing the expected results. Variance happens. We have had to fade one bad close in the last 3 days and somehow we are headed backwards.......

Nice, eh?

Todays short card starts in a few.
 
BigDaddy

BigDaddy

EOG Master
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

OSU i haven't broke it down but out of the 62 plays you beat the closing line what is the record and does that even make a difference?

keep up the good work if you continue to beat the closing line you will come out ahead over a larger sample of plays.

:cheers
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

BigDaddy said:
OSU i haven't broke it down but out of the 62 plays you beat the closing line what is the record and does that even make a difference?

keep up the good work if you continue to beat the closing line you will come out ahead over a larger sample of plays.

:cheers
Click to expand...

The areas we are struggling are the following:

1. When we do get faded and end up with a 45-49% play we are losing every one.

2. We are hitting 40% of our 50% plays. (If that makes sense)


I expect to lose the ones that close bad. If we can just hit 50% on the coin flips we will be fine. 12io4j2w90
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

Got Yale +5-1/2 at Skybook and have the correct numbers in hand on the others. Thanks and GL, Travis.:cheers
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

801 Harvard ov 138.5

(Here we go with another Ivy League game going over :hangt)
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

You may be on to something here, the line is up to 139.5.:smoking2:
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

IrishTim said:
I'm seeing 140.5/141. Gonna have to pass.
Click to expand...

CRIS
02/11 02:19:18pm #801 Harvard 137
02/11 02:19:18pm #802 Yale
02/11 02:23:42pm #802 Yale 137 OPENER
02/11 02:23:43pm #801 Harvard 5? OPENER
02/11 02:34:33pm #802 Yale 138
02/11 06:09:58pm #801 Harvard 5
02/12 08:34:37am #802 Yale 138?
02/12 08:48:53am #802 Yale 139?
02/12 08:50:17am #802 Yale 140?
02/12 08:54:27am #802 Yale 141?



Only gave you about 11 minutes on this one. Sorry.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

No problem, Travis. I was wasting away in fuckin Italian class while you posted it so there's no way I could've got to the number in time. Plenty of other games.
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

813 Fairfield ov 141

805 Dartmouth +6.5

802 Yale +5

801 Harvard ov 138.5

809 WVU ov 127

Just 5 today. Taking the afternoon off due to the short card. (No NBA)

GL gents.
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

royalfan said:
One question for you OSU. Notice to this point you have not given out two sides of a "situation" What is you whiff and market starts showing strong indicators the other way? How do you handle that sitution? Play twice as much on the new move so on the most current one?
Click to expand...

This is a great question, RF. I've thought about this a lot too. If you're making plays that the market disagrees with but you think (or thought) are +EV, do you bet more because now your edge (or perceived edge) is even greater? Or do you just suck it up and pray as OSU said because the market rejected your position?

I used to do this with props. Suppose I determined a certain prop to have a 12% edge at +150 and it moved to +170. I would say, well hell I've getting ever more of an edge and put more on it. But now that I've been around a little more, I think that's the wrong way to go about it. If the market moves against you, you probably miscalculated your edge originally.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

OSU COWBOYS said:
CRIS
02/11 02:19:18pm #801 Harvard 137
02/11 02:19:18pm #802 Yale
02/11 02:23:42pm #802 Yale 137 OPENER
02/11 02:23:43pm #801 Harvard 5? OPENER
02/11 02:34:33pm #802 Yale 138
02/11 06:09:58pm #801 Harvard 5
02/12 08:34:37am #802 Yale 138?
02/12 08:48:53am #802 Yale 139?
02/12 08:50:17am #802 Yale 140?
02/12 08:54:27am #802 Yale 141?



Only gave you about 11 minutes on this one. Sorry.
Click to expand...
That 141-1/2 and the Ivy's propensity for unders may make that one a fade for me.:smoking2:Still room for both of us to squeeze in, too.12io4j2w90
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

Well, it took OT to get there, but that's the last time I try to be a wise guy, Travis. I promise!:blink:
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

Now, watch us get fucked on this Yale bet so I can be really pissed.:thumbsup
 
IrishTim

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

I just saw that and thought of you munson. I had no action on the game but I sure as hell know what it's like to lose unders/dogs in OT. I think the markets were wrong in this case, the under was the play. Lets hope Yale can finish the job here in OT.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

Thanks, Tim, I was really between a rock and a hard place at the end of regulation. I couldn't rightfully root for Travis' total to lose, but I knew I stood a good chance of blowing my +5-1/2 bet if it got there. :doh1
 
OSU COWBOYS

OSU COWBOYS

EOG Dedicated
Re: NCAA Hoops Totals thread (Feb 2nd-28th)

Fridays results:

Daily Actual = 4-1 (+1.9 UNITS)

Daily vs closers = 2-2-1

MTD Actual = 58-51-2 (+1.9 UNITS / 53.2%)

MTD VS Closers = 64-16-31


Todays card will start shortly.
 
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