NHL 2021 Season

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
That one does look tempting on the revenge angle but the fight in the Flyers seems totally lacking right now. Like they arrived too soon last year and are regressing badly back to a lottery team.
You make solid points. But I was on them the next day when they played NYI and got a +140 ticket home. Admittedly I had to sweat out what shoulda been a rocking chair winner. Flyers were UP 3-0 headed to 3P then had to score late to win it 4-3. There are plenty of times to fade the Flyers. Tonight is not one of them. If this team gets blown out again we will be able to fade them for some time and cash tickets. All I know is if I was on the Flyers and got nationally embarrassed like my team did the last time we played tonight's opponent I'd come out breathing fire and seeking payback.
 
Really like the VGK/Col under 5.5 tonight. Should be a great battle these next two games with both teams really bringing it on the defensive end.
I can see VGK outright here tonight.
They schooled the Blues in their latest. Stone playing like Hart candidate. He’s dominating on the PP.
Whole team is playing with confidence.
Also there is motivation to proudly remain division top dog.
 
I can see VGK outright here tonight.
They schooled the Blues in their latest. Stone playing like Hart candidate. He’s dominating on the PP.
Whole team is playing with confidence.
Also there is motivation to proudly remain division top dog.
At the high dog price VGK is worth a shot. I don't think they are nearly the team a healthy Avs team is, but this price is too high.
 
You make solid points. But I was on them the next day when they played NYI and got a +140 ticket home. Admittedly I had to sweat out what shoulda been a rocking chair winner. Flyers were UP 3-0 headed to 3P then had to score late to win it 4-3. There are plenty of times to fade the Flyers. Tonight is not one of them. If this team gets blown out again we will be able to fade them for some time and cash tickets. All I know is if I was on the Flyers and got nationally embarrassed like my team did the last time we played tonight's opponent I'd come out breathing fire and seeking payback.
Down a hat trick again after the first, not exactly coming out for revenge. Bigger issues this team has to deal with than getting revenge on one opponent.
 
I don't quite get the Sharks being a pick'em with the Coyotes tonight. Coyotes a bit more rested and coming off a more impressive win. Generally just a better team too IMO.
 
I don't quite get the Sharks being a pick'em with the Coyotes tonight. Coyotes a bit more rested and coming off a more impressive win. Generally just a better team too IMO.
These are two teams wallowing in mediocrity. Hence the pick’em prices.
I like Arizona. Sharks overachieved vs. the Kings on Wednesday.
Jones was excellent and they scored on their good chances. Offensive efficiency makes the game so much easier.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Just can't bring myself to bet the Sabres even though I agree I have no interest in backing the Flyers right now. Calgary looks good to me, also leaning towards the Avs under.
Last week I made a ML play on the Rockets +310 against the Raptors when Houston had lost 20 straight. They smoked 'em in a game that was never in doubt.

I think we can all agree the Sabres are not going to lose every game the rest of the season. They will probably lose MOST of them but not ALL! This is a fabulous spot. if not today - when? Wednesday against these same Flyers? A week from Tuesday against the Satans? I feel pretty confident Sabres get a win in (at least) one of these next 2 against the Flyers. Sometimes ya just gotta hold your nose and walk to the window and put money on a P.O.S. team. I'll add this: I think they might even cover the APL tonite at around $4
 
Last week I made a ML play on the Rockets +310 against the Raptors when Houston had lost 20 straight. They smoked 'em in a game that was never in doubt.

I think we can all agree the Sabres are not going to lose every game the rest of the season. They will probably lose MOST of them but not ALL! This is a fabulous spot. if not today - when? Wednesday against these same Flyers? A week from Tuesday against the Satans? I feel pretty confident Sabres get a win in (at least) one of these next 2 against the Flyers. Sometimes ya just gotta hold your nose and walk to the window and put money on a P.O.S. team. I'll add this: I think they might even cover the APL tonite at around $4
Its a bad spot because the Flyers need to right their ship and at least showed some life with a Rangers win in a low scoring game. That was what they needed and now with two against the Sabres they can get a 3 game winning streak going. If the Flyers did have that win I would be much more inclined to back the Sabres. I have no problem betting against long winning and losing streaks, just don't think this is the spot.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Its a bad spot because the Flyers need to right their ship and at least showed some life with a Rangers win in a low scoring game. That was what they needed and now with two against the Sabres they can get a 3 game winning streak going. If the Flyers did have that win I would be much more inclined to back the Sabres. I have no problem betting against long winning and losing streaks, just don't think this is the spot.
As we saw - I had the right side. That and 55-cents will help me mail a letter
 
The Avs find out tonight if they're still in the market for a net minder. I say they are and -225 is waayyy to much. Give me the Over 5.5 goals.
They didn't protect him from shots like they did against the weak teams and he got the job done. I still think they are going to get a goalie like Bernier, just not paying the price right now. Come TDL day the price comes down, the sellers are just hoping some others get injured and they can get a big price. I do agree the prices are a bit high but the analytics on this team are just off the charts. Rare to see a team with a +1.5 per game edge and actually deserve it in expected goals and Fenwick. T
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Should be interesting to see if there's anymore player trades/moves before the trading deadline Monday. Where will Taylor Hall Go? Injuries Free Up Cap Space like the Isles situation with Anders Lee so they pulled the trigger for Palmieri and Zajac from New Jersey. Going with these to start today.

Chicago -124 2 units bookm
Ottawa +1.5 +120 0.5 unit b365
Ottawa +286 0.25 unit b365
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Should be interesting to see if there's anymore player trades/moves before the trading deadline Monday. Where will Taylor Hall Go? Injuries Free Up Cap Space like the Isles situation with Anders Lee so they pulled the trigger for Palmieri and Zajac from New Jersey. Going with these to start today.

Chicago -124 2 units bookm
Ottawa +1.5 +120 0.5 unit b365
Ottawa +286 0.25 unit b365
Taylor Hall will be on 8-10 teams before his career ends. Too much talent not to take a chance on, yet will disappoint at every turn.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
He let it be known he will be interested to sign an extended contract if a team trades for him, he must be tired of his hired mercenary status.
 
These Avs games consistently at over -300 makes me wonder who actually bets them at these prices?
Here’s the ML ROI for all teams.

Avalanche is +2.25 units.
Buffalo has been the worst. (Source evanalytics.com)

Team Win Loss Units ROI
Washington Capitals 25 14 10.95 22.48 %
Winnipeg Jets 25 16 10.00 21.16 %
Pittsburgh Penguins 27 14 11.10 19.82 %
New York Islanders 26 15 8.25 14.99 %
Vegas Golden Knights 26 13 7.00 10.17 %
Edmonton Oilers 24 17 5.70 10.07 %
Nashville Predators 23 20 4.90 9.52 %
Carolina Hurricanes 26 11 5.60 8.95 %
Florida Panthers 24 15 4.30 7.39 %
Minnesota Wild 22 16 3.75 7.01 %
Toronto Maple Leafs 28 13 4.00 5.50 %
Colorado Avalanche 26 13 2.25 2.77 %
Arizona Coyotes 19 20 -0.10 -0.22 %
San Jose Sharks 18 21 -1.00 -2.38 %
Tampa Bay Lightning 25 13 -3.10 -3.58 %
Chicago Blackhawks 19 23 -2.00 -4.31 %
Detroit Red Wings 14 29 -2.45 -5.70 %
Vancouver Canucks 16 21 -2.40 -5.91 %
Los Angeles Kings 16 24 -3.15 -7.51 %
Boston Bruins 20 17 -4.85 -8.61 %
Ottawa Senators 13 28 -4.10 -9.98 %
Philadelphia Flyers 19 22 -6.70 -12.69 %
New York Rangers 17 22 -7.10 -14.85 %
St. Louis Blues 19 21 -11.00 -18.88 %
Calgary Flames 17 24 -12.50 -24.15 %
Dallas Stars 15 22 -11.60 -24.27 %
Columbus Blue Jackets 15 28 -12.20 -24.90 %
Montreal Canadiens 17 21 -14.70 -25.24 %
New Jersey Devils 12 25 -10.15 -25.53 %
Anaheim Ducks 12 30 -13.50 -31.84 %
Buffalo Sabres 10 27 -13.95 -36.14 %
 
These Avs games consistently at over -300 makes me wonder who actually bets them at these prices?
I was "all in" on them the other day (Apr.11th) vs the Ducks. Mostly -336 & -315 ml, the rest -1.5 -123.

I'm sure a lot of people put big ML favs in parlays similar to this in yesterday's best bet thread:

"2 team parlay -103 Sports Interaction
Colorado Avalanche (regulation time) -0.5 -185
Carolina Hurricanes -356"
 
Last edited:
I was "all in" on them the other day (Apr.11th) vs the Ducks. Mostly -336 & -315 ml, the rest -1.5 -123.

I'm sure a lot of people put big ML favs in parlays similar to this in yesterday's best bet thread:

"2 team parlay -103 Sports Interaction
Colorado Avalanche (regulation time) -0.5 -185
Carolina Hurricanes -356"
Yep, often see those 250 or higher chalk in parlays. Funny how they don't win as often as square bettors expect.

My concern with the Avs is that their underlying stats are so off the charts right now that they might be due for some regression. Easy division certainly plays a role in it, but they are over 60% expected goal differential at 5v5. No one does that for a full season in the modern game, not even the great teams like Tampa a few years ago stay above 55%. Sure enough the Avs had a relatively poor game last night and still won with ease because of their talent, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them coast to the end. I know they want to finish above VGK, but I'm expecting both teams to have some unexpected losses down the stretch because the regular season is just not that meaningful so no need to keep the pedal to the metal.
 
The Vancouver Canucks are scheduled to play 19 games in 31 days starting Friday according to:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/miller-stands-canucks-brave-honest-concern-teams-safety/

"...the revised schedule that asks Vancouver players to open the hardest month of their careers with five games in seven nights, led off by back-to-back sacrifices against Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews."

"...Canucks return to action but don't expect players to be at full strength"

"...All but three of these players – Nils Hoglander, Nate Schmidt and Jake Virtanen – come out of protocol this week and should be available to play Friday against Edmonton and Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, pending mandatory cardiac screening and ramped-up physical activity.

But the team will have only one full practice, on Thursday, before being thrown back into the Canadian Division playoff race against healthy teams already sprinting for the regular-season finish line. The Canucks last played on March 24."
 
I think the Canucks will just use this as a chance to see what their younger players and guys in the AHL can do. They don't realistically have a shot at the playoffs and just imagine if they did make it how absolutely spent they would be. That being said I expect them to look decent in the first stretch of games with maybe a bit of rust in the first game back. These guys surely want to get out on the ice and play and should have plenty in the tank before the wall hits maybe around game 10.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I think the Canucks will just use this as a chance to see what their younger players and guys in the AHL can do. They don't realistically have a shot at the playoffs and just imagine if they did make it how absolutely spent they would be. That being said I expect them to look decent in the first stretch of games with maybe a bit of rust in the first game back. These guys surely want to get out on the ice and play and should have plenty in the tank before the wall hits maybe around game 10.
The other part is their opponents are in tough spots also. Maybe look at fading those teams in rough schedule spots also.
 
The other part is their opponents are in tough spots also. Maybe look at fading those teams in rough schedule spots also.
Fading schedule spots hasn't been that consistently great this season for me at least. I think the players deserve credit for being in great shape and the coaches deserve credit for keeping them as fresh as possible. Seems like the teams have just limited practices and players are laser focused on hockey this season. I still think the league would have been better served playing in bubbles for the first half of the season, they could have had every team bang out 28 games in 6-7 weeks without the travel or risk of Covid and had a more normal schedule for the second half with most teams getting fans back.
 
Vancouver game tomorrow postponed.
Feels like they are just going to admit the obvious and have them play fewer games. Probably will try to cut down as equally as possible so Van plays everyone 7 times if possible. They'll go to the points percentage which currently has Vancouver down over 6 points to Montreal if they had played the same number of games.
 
Here’s the ML ROI for all teams.

Avalanche is +2.25 units.
Buffalo has been the worst. (Source evanalytics.com)

Team Win Loss Units ROI
Washington Capitals 25 14 10.95 22.48 %
Winnipeg Jets 25 16 10.00 21.16 %
Pittsburgh Penguins 27 14 11.10 19.82 %
New York Islanders 26 15 8.25 14.99 %
Vegas Golden Knights 26 13 7.00 10.17 %
Edmonton Oilers 24 17 5.70 10.07 %
Nashville Predators 23 20 4.90 9.52 %
Carolina Hurricanes 26 11 5.60 8.95 %
Florida Panthers 24 15 4.30 7.39 %
Minnesota Wild 22 16 3.75 7.01 %
Toronto Maple Leafs 28 13 4.00 5.50 %
Colorado Avalanche 26 13 2.25 2.77 %
Arizona Coyotes 19 20 -0.10 -0.22 %
San Jose Sharks 18 21 -1.00 -2.38 %
Tampa Bay Lightning 25 13 -3.10 -3.58 %
Chicago Blackhawks 19 23 -2.00 -4.31 %
Detroit Red Wings 14 29 -2.45 -5.70 %
Vancouver Canucks 16 21 -2.40 -5.91 %
Los Angeles Kings 16 24 -3.15 -7.51 %
Boston Bruins 20 17 -4.85 -8.61 %
Ottawa Senators 13 28 -4.10 -9.98 %
Philadelphia Flyers 19 22 -6.70 -12.69 %
New York Rangers 17 22 -7.10 -14.85 %
St. Louis Blues 19 21 -11.00 -18.88 %
Calgary Flames 17 24 -12.50 -24.15 %
Dallas Stars 15 22 -11.60 -24.27 %
Columbus Blue Jackets 15 28 -12.20 -24.90 %
Montreal Canadiens 17 21 -14.70 -25.24 %
New Jersey Devils 12 25 -10.15 -25.53 %
Anaheim Ducks 12 30 -13.50 -31.84 %
Buffalo Sabres 10 27 -13.95 -36.14 %
Seems pretty simple today.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
The Vancouver Canucks are scheduled to play 19 games in 31 days starting Friday according to:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/miller-stands-canucks-brave-honest-concern-teams-safety/

"...the revised schedule that asks Vancouver players to open the hardest month of their careers with five games in seven nights, led off by back-to-back sacrifices against Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews."

"...Canucks return to action but don't expect players to be at full strength"

"...All but three of these players – Nils Hoglander, Nate Schmidt and Jake Virtanen – come out of protocol this week and should be available to play Friday against Edmonton and Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, pending mandatory cardiac screening and ramped-up physical activity.

But the team will have only one full practice, on Thursday, before being thrown back into the Canadian Division playoff race against healthy teams already sprinting for the regular-season finish line. The Canucks last played on March 24."

19 in 31 days with some player symptoms being quite bad, with one practice before playing appeared unrealistic physically and mentally when it was 1st introduced
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Dallas played well, outplayed and chanced Columbus last game, fortunate to get a decent + price also after Columbus went up 1-0, as noted earlier in the thread, all plays are for 1 unit unless otherwise noted

looking for the same today 48 hours later

19 - Dallas -0.5 -121 in 60 minute Regulation pinny
 
Top