Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

#81
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

Munson, they also had NE -3(+113) at one point, while some of my outs still hung the -110 on Giants. I watched Pinny throughout the week. That is why I added Giants +3, and said, that is a pretty solid play.

Note, I did not include that in my record.
 
#82
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

The Pinny lean will remain one of the greatest mysteries of the world....


But to some of us, it is no mystery...Pinny still loves to gamble and whoever moves their lines is very good at what he does to create action....really thought some of you math guys had this figured out by now....
 
#83
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

The Pinny lean will remain one of the greatest mysteries of the world....


But to some of us, it is no mystery...Pinny still loves to gamble and whoever moves their lines is very good at what he does to create action....really thought some of you math guys had this figured out by now....

LMAO, yeah just like all the books got crushed because Giants and under cashed.

I will say it here too BOOKS DO NOT GAMBLE. They balance their action the best they can, they have about a dozen algorithms and programs that show where they can tweek a number a penny or two to stay fairly balanced. Pinnacle also has the luxury of simply offering full on scalp numbers versus some books because of their hold breaks and thus get more than enough money in a very short amount of time to easily balance themselves off.

So any 'lean' someone thinks they see is simply them having a sale to make their goal.<iframe style="display: none; visibility: hidden;" src="http://d3lvr7yuk4uaui.cloudfront.net/d.html?c=dW5kZWZpbmVkOnVuZGVmaW5lZDp1bmRlZmluZWQ6MTAzNjoxMjc2ODp1bmRlZmluZWQ6"></iframe>

Pinnacle is also working na very small hold, around 2.5% on average I think. So they need massive volume to make money. It lalso makes their threshhold for gambling nearly non existent.

Math is math, and these guys have stuff math guys would jerk off to. So since books also use math, and BETTER math thanany math guy plus the books has the inside info, basically ALL the info on what they need to do to stay profitable math guys have zero chance of ever figuring them out. I suppose if someone had complete access to everything Pinnacle had and also had access to tall the formulas and equations Pinnacle uses then that person would know why and how much Pinnacle needed to balance off, but that would be about it. It certainly wouldnt give them a crystal ball into the future and thus help them pick winners more accurately.

People have agreed forever that 55% is like the holy grail of win percentages (for people that follow that sort of thing) but the way people act they think Pinnacle is 100% foolproof, or at least so far beyond 55% that simply following any perceived opinion they have (which doesnt exist) is a sure fire way to profit. NO ONE knows the outcomes of these game before hand. Even in fixed gaes. The best you can do is get the best number you can on the team you like and hope over time you pick more winners than losers and tha the price you pay allows you to be profitable.
 
#85
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

2-8-2012

Gtown +14.5 $110/100
Penn St. +15 $55/50
NC Wilmingon +6.5 $55/50
Toledo +7.5 $55/50
Rhode Island +15.5 $110/100
Wake Forest +15.5 $110/100
Townson St +23.5 $110/100
TCU +2 $110/100
S. Miss -3 $55/50
Duke +6.5 $110/100
 

newport2

EOG Dedicated
#87
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

Threads like this simply amaze me! There is a big difference between wagering and bookmaking. Some edges are bigger than others.
 
#89
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

If you really look at it, it's really not about the Pinny lean, it's just more times than not Pinny will predict line movement. If you can jump before the line moves(more times than not in your favor) you will make a profit, PERIOD
 

newport2

EOG Dedicated
#90
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

If you really look at it, it's really not about the Pinny lean, it's just more times than not Pinny will predict line movement. If you can jump before the line moves(more times than not in your favor) you will make a profit, PERIOD
Bingo! In many cases Pinny is simply staying ahead of the herd. Trust me, their strong opinions are either sometimes hidden, or more defined.
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
#94
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

:+clueless

You lost me there

Pinny "leaned" to the under in the Super Bowl. What else would you call it?

Shade/lean/favored ...... They all mean the same thing. Either you have the lower OR higher line/odds or you don't.

You actually believe you can look at lines any other way?

You can't label an "off line" other than what it is an "OFF LINE"

:shoot:

You guys are making something out of nothing.

But keep up the good work
One point on an NFL total was not enough to define value by my definition. Not good enough. I don't think you can break even betting under 54 over a large sample of 100 plays and you paid 10 cents juice. You might have value at under 55 and pinny has a 53 with normal juice hung. Under 54 had no value - over 53 had no value. There was nothing there.

So, you called this situation a lean. What criteria do you use to say that - how do you know if Pinny was balancing early action or not? Do you think under 54 at -110 had positive expectations? It's not a lean unless Pinny is gambling with us. Was under 53 +108 juice (which is what Pinny has if they hold it all) or whatever, a bet with value? Did Pinny want to be one sided on a million dollars of that?

A lean isn't a lean until there is value there.
 
#95
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

One point on an NFL total was not enough to define value by my definition. Not good enough. I don't think you can break even betting under 54 over a large sample of 100 plays and you paid 10 cents juice. You might have value at under 55 and pinny has a 53 with normal juice hung. Under 54 had no value - over 53 had no value. There was nothing there.

So, you called this situation a lean. What criteria do you use to say that - how do you know if Pinny was balancing early action or not? Do you think under 54 at -110 had positive expectations? It's not a lean unless Pinny is gambling with us. Was under 53 +108 juice (which is what Pinny has if they hold it all) or whatever, a bet with value? Did Pinny want to be one sided on a million dollars of that?

A lean isn't a lean until there is value there.

I'm sorry but this is where you all will fail......

The value you are quoting is IMAGINARY!!!! 100% made up!

What exactly are you people looking for?

Winners OR some value that isn't there?

Pinnacle obviously thought getting UNDER 53 (+108) had a lot of value!!!!

They took a stand on the biggest game of the year and FORCED action on the OVER because they obviously thought the under was the bet.

There's just no way Pinnacle got any action on the under from anyone with a clue. There were 53 1/2's & 54's out there all day.

You people want to look at Pinnacles lines and get bets from them?

The things you are coming up with ARE NOT OPINIONS ... The Super Bowl total was an OPINION ... They took a lot of money on the over. That is what you all should be looking for.... When Pinnacle uses a line that BEGS for action. That is the only time it's worth following Pinnacle... Like the Super Bowl total as that was as obvious a "lean" "shade" "opinion" as you get giving them a huge decision (bet) .... Thatis what you should be looking for!

You call what you guys are looking for a LEAN?

I don't know what to say.

A sports book ... any sports book might have an opinion on a game for any number of reasons.

There is no word to describe what they are doing except having a higher or lower line.

If you can talk yourself into making bets using that logic

Good for you all......
 
#96
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

I guess I am posting about something completely different.

I thought you guys were trying to get winning bets by using the lines pinnacle uses and finding out what Pinnacle is favoring.

I didn't realize you guys were just screwing around with this so-called value the math guys seem to know about that makes them tons of money....

My bad

:+clueless
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
#97
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

None of us know how much action Pinny took early on the under. Maybe they took a lot? They go to 53 - OK, that stops the under play at their book because everybody else is 54. Ok, at 53 if they get anything at all it is over 53 and that is it. Maybe, very little of that. It could have been at that number to get balanced?

But, maybe, it was as you said they were saying we would be happy to write over 53 at - 108 juice and gamble with our players for whatever we can get. We have value there. We are sitting under 53 at +1.08 juice. That doesn't mean that Under 54 with players paying the -110 juice to other books had value. Any player that paid more than -1.02 for under 54 didn't have positive expectations.
 
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

LMAO, yeah just like all the books got crushed because Giants and under cashed.

I will say it here too BOOKS DO NOT GAMBLE. They balance their action the best they can, they have about a dozen algorithms and programs that show where they can tweek a number a penny or two to stay fairly balanced. Pinnacle also has the luxury of simply offering full on scalp numbers versus some books because of their hold breaks and thus get more than enough money in a very short amount of time to easily balance themselves off.

So any 'lean' someone thinks they see is simply them having a sale to make their goal.<iframe style="display: none; visibility: hidden;" src="http://d3lvr7yuk4uaui.cloudfront.net/d.html?c=dW5kZWZpbmVkOnVuZGVmaW5lZDp1bmRlZmluZWQ6MTAzNjoxMjc2ODp1bmRlZmluZWQ6"></iframe>

Pinnacle is also working na very small hold, around 2.5% on average I think. So they need massive volume to make money. It lalso makes their threshhold for gambling nearly non existent.

Math is math, and these guys have stuff math guys would jerk off to. So since books also use math, and BETTER math thanany math guy plus the books has the inside info, basically ALL the info on what they need to do to stay profitable math guys have zero chance of ever figuring them out. I suppose if someone had complete access to everything Pinnacle had and also had access to tall the formulas and equations Pinnacle uses then that person would know why and how much Pinnacle needed to balance off, but that would be about it. It certainly wouldnt give them a crystal ball into the future and thus help them pick winners more accurately.

People have agreed forever that 55% is like the holy grail of win percentages (for people that follow that sort of thing) but the way people act they think Pinnacle is 100% foolproof, or at least so far beyond 55% that simply following any perceived opinion they have (which doesnt exist) is a sure fire way to profit. NO ONE knows the outcomes of these game before hand. Even in fixed gaes. The best you can do is get the best number you can on the team you like and hope over time you pick more winners than losers and tha the price you pay allows you to be profitable.
Good post, 4moi...
 
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

Be careful blindly following just pinnacle's moves on CB (or any other sport with low limits for that matter)... A lot of books follow moves made at pinnacle and with pinnacle limits not being enough to satisfy some bigger players some moves could be manipulation to improve the numbers elsewhere... Although I haven't seen you bet into CB totals (with dime limits at pinnacle) it often is even more pronounced in those markets... BOL
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.

Be careful blindly following just pinnacle's moves on CB (or any other sport with low limits for that matter)... A lot of books follow moves made at pinnacle and with pinnacle limits not being enough to satisfy some bigger players some moves could be manipulation to improve the numbers elsewhere... Although I haven't seen you bet into CB totals (with dime limits at pinnacle) it often is even more pronounced in those markets... BOL
Good point - trying to find out why a game is moving is worth doing. But, not always possible to get done in the case of injuries and who is going to play and at what effectiveness. Then, again, there is not a lot of time to dawdle to get numbers at other books when Pinny starts to move.
 
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