UFC

i don’t understand the Brendan Allen move. He has a big style advantage if he fights to his strengths.
Watching him try to outstrike Sean Strickland last time out was so brutal. My expectation was he would drag him to the mat repeatedly. Hope he remembers his grappling advantage next time out
 
Having said that watch him come out and stand with Roberson not doing any takedowns:poop: Robersons not that hard to takedown if he actually tries.
That's the only reason I only laid 2u. I am gunshy because I think he thinks he's a striker now. I am hoping he fought Strickland the way he did because he respected Stricklands jiu jitsu. He should be able to carve Roberson up on the mat.
 
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Smartz I could not find your analysis on the Namajunas fight this Saturday. Did you do one? Love the 3 unit play on a +170 underdog! Curious as to why you like her so much in this fight?
 
Smartz I could not find your analysis on the Namajunas fight this Saturday. Did you do one? Love the 3 unit play on a +170 underdog! Curious as to why you like her so much in this fight?
I think she is the best fighter in the division. I wagered on JJ vs Zhang and thought JJ won. Close fight, wasn't mad with the split decision. JJ looked to be the superior striker but Weili had the power. I think Rose can bring all the problems JJ did with better footwork, more power, and more creativity in her striking. When you watch Weili or JJ strike they are very fundamentally sound technical fighters. Their movements are predictable/traditional and almost linear in nature. Whereas Rose is a little more unorthodox and seems to flow with the strikes thrown at her. She uses a variety of counters, creates angles in the pocket with her feet, and just brings alot more elusiveness and danger to the mix. If you were able to watch Almeida vs O'Malley, both are very high level strikers but its becomes evident very quickly which fighters movements are harder to read.

Generally there are always questions when the big underdog is challenging for the strap. How will they perform on the big stage and do they have the stamina to go all 5. Rose has already proven both.

Outside of power I really have a hard time finding where Zhang is superior to Rose (I don't think Zhang is the powerhouse Andrade is either). Alot is being made of Zhang's power and I think she is strong but she only has one knockdown in her UFC career and only 2 finishes through 5 fights (With JJ and Andrade being the only legit talent she has faced). I expect Rose to be the quicker fighter, be more elusive with her footwork, use distance more effectively and be the far better striker. My expectation is Zhang will try to be heavy on clinch work and takedowns. Rose is very slippery on the fence with the way she frames and evades and/or mixes in submissions. Her BJJ is nice, my hope is she doesn't spend too much time searching for submissions and instead uses her energy just trying to get to her feet. I could be way off here judging by the way the market is moving but I would line this fight somewhere is the -130 to -150 ballpark for Rose.
 
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PENDING:

4/23/21 PFL
2*Sheymon Moraes +195

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145
1*Jimmy Crute -181
1*Kamaru Usman/Jorge Masvidal "Does Not Go The Distance" +155
1*Kevin Natividad +145


5/1/21
1*Sean Strickland -220
1*Dominick Reyes +105

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120
3*Ludovit Klein -150
2*Diego Ferreira +160

1*Angela Hill +195
1*Neil Magny +195

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125

6/26/21
1*Alexander Volkov +115

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105
 
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MMA
[46-46] +17.91
3* [7-5] +5.57

PENDING:

4/23/21 PFL
2*Sheymon Moraes +195
1*Marcin Held +350

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145
1*Jimmy Crute -181
1*Kamaru Usman/Jorge Masvidal "Does Not Go The Distance" +155
1*Kevin Natividad +145

5/1/21
1*Sean Strickland -220
1*Dominick Reyes +105

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120
3*Ludovit Klein -150
2*Diego Ferreira +160
1*Angela Hill +195
1*Neil Magny +195

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125

6/26/21
1*Alexander Volkov +115

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105
 
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MMA
[47-47] +19.41
3* [7-5] +5.57

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140 L Closing Line: +110
1*Gillian Robertson +150 L Closing Line: +130
1*Tyron Woodley +221 L Closing Line: +160

4/2/21 Bellator
2*Patricio Freire -244 W Closing Line: -250
1*Jason Jackson +138 W Closing Line: +105

4/7/21 ONE
2*Eddie Alvarez -115 No Action Closing Line: -145

4/9/21 Bellator
1*Dan Moret +425 W Closing Line: +375
1*Adam Borics -102 W Closing Line: -110

4/10/21
3*Nina Ansaroff -110 L Closing Line: -130
2*Joe Solecki -190 W Closing Line: -240
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175 W Closing Line: -240
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145 L Closing Line: -150
1*Hunter Azure +125 L Closing Line: +160
1*Over 2.5 Rounds Marvin Vettori/Kevin Holland -135 W Closing Line: -135
1*Under 2.5 Rounds Mike Perry/Daniel Rodriguez +117 L Closing Line: +115

4/16/21
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120 L Closing Line: +170
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110 L
0.5*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +150 L
1*Phil Davis +149 L Closing Line: +150
0.5*Phil Davis +165 L
0.5*Phil Davis +170 L
0.5*Phil Davis by Decision +300 L Closing Line: +275
1*Desiree Yanez -110 L Closing Line: -120

4/17/21
2*Alexander Romanov +105 W Closing Line: -145
2*Austin Hubbard "Live Bet" -139 W
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220 L Closing Line: +215
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130 W Closing Line: +105
0.5*Luis Pena "Live Bet" -117 W
0.5*Al Hassan "Live Bet" +125 L

4/23/21 PFL
2*Sheymon Moraes +195 L Closing Line: +130
1*Marcin Held +350 W Closing Line: +325
 
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MMA
[47-47] +19.41
3* [7-5] +5.57

PENDING:

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145
1*Jimmy Crute -181
1*Kamaru Usman/Jorge Masvidal "Does Not Go The Distance" +155
1*Kevin Natividad +145
1*Chris Weidman/Uriah Hall "Does Not Go The Distance" -120

5/1/21
1*Sean Strickland -220
1*Dominick Reyes +105

5/8/21
3*Cory Sandhagen -110
3*Carlston Harris +120
3*Ludovit Klein -150
2*Diego Ferreira +160
1*Angela Hill +195
1*Neil Magny +195

5/15/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175
1*Michael Chandler +125

6/26/21
1*Alexander Volkov +115

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105
 
I think she is the best fighter in the division. I wagered on JJ vs Zhang and thought JJ won. Close fight, wasn't mad with the split decision. JJ looked to be the superior striker but Weili had the power. I think Rose can bring all the problems JJ did with better footwork, more power, and more creativity in her striking. When you watch Weili or JJ strike they are very fundamentally sound technical fighters. Their movements are predictable/traditional and almost linear in nature. Whereas Rose is a little more unorthodox and seems to flow with the strikes thrown at her. She uses a variety of counters, creates angles in the pocket with her feet, and just brings alot more elusiveness and danger to the mix. If you were able to watch Almeida vs O'Malley, both are very high level strikers but its becomes evident very quickly which fighters movements are harder to read.

Generally there are always questions when the big underdog is challenging for the strap. How will they perform on the big stage and do they have the stamina to go all 5. Rose has already proven both.

Outside of power I really have a hard time finding where Zhang is superior to Rose (I don't think Zhang is the powerhouse Andrade is either). Alot is being made of Zhang's power and I think she is strong but she only has one knockdown in her UFC career and only 2 finishes through 5 fights (With JJ and Andrade being the only legit talent she has faced). I expect Rose to be the quicker fighter, be more elusive with her footwork, use distance more effectively and be the far better striker. My expectation is Zhang will try to be heavy on clinch work and takedowns. Rose is very slippery on the fence with the way she frames and evades and/or mixes in submissions. Her BJJ is nice, my hope is she doesn't spend too much time searching for submissions and instead uses her energy just trying to get to her feet. I could be way off here judging by the way the market is moving but I would line this fight somewhere is the -130 to -150 ballpark for Rose.
 
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