What makes MLB the easiest sport to beat?

Abundy

EOG Addicted
Nothing. It is all random. Might as well spin the roulette wheel.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Instead of laying a -108 or -110 on each side of a football or basketball game, baseball bettors can find wagering outlets that offer -105/-105 pricing.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
well if the exchange opens this summer then we can see how low the odds will go in sports betting
 

Heim

EOG Master
The hold on baseball is the lowest at books. So many games, less variance.

Beatable, but you have to watch the screen diligently.

Fezzik once proclaimed it cannot be beat because the early headfakes were eating up his bankroll.
 
If you have at least 4 decent books with dime lines on baseball for most games you probably are facing a 1% or less effective hold against you. Add in the fact that on the majority of games the "public" bettor will side with the favorite either in straight bets or in parlays that its pretty close to a winning formula just to bet the dogs since the books have to shade the lines a bit. Add in some additional filters (divisional dogs being stronger for example) and decent bankroll management, and almost any bettor can make a small profit from baseball every year with fairly minimal effort.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
Someone explain this to me.

Dodgers v. Rocks....today

Score 1st Inning.....+104 Y, -134 N Both teams.
Score 1st Inning +307Y, -464 N Rocks
Score 1st Inning +151Y, -202N Dodger

Do not get where the cumulative affect is in these #'s.
 
Someone explain this to me.

Dodgers v. Rocks....today

Score 1st Inning.....+104 Y, -134 N Both teams.
Score 1st Inning +307Y, -464 N Rocks
Score 1st Inning +151Y, -202N Dodger

Do not get where the cumulative affect is in these #'s.

I think your first one is wrong, that should be odds there is a run scored, the over 0.5 for the inning number. Correct? If so that's implying

Rox score 21% of the time
Dodgers score 36% of the time
One of the two teams score 46% of the time

My math might be a little off, but just in general terms.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Someone explain this to me.

Dodgers v. Rocks....today

Score 1st Inning.....+104 Y, -134 N Both teams.
Score 1st Inning +307Y, -464 N Rocks
Score 1st Inning +151Y, -202N Dodger

Do not get where the cumulative affect is in these #'s.
Feels reasonable cheap. perhaps not perfect but in the ball park that the 3 lines combined make sense. Can make a case it's slightly better to bet the +104 if you like score in 1st inning and bet the no one or both of the teams individually if you like no score in 1st but its not off by a ton unless i'm missing something.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
I think your first one is wrong, that should be odds there is a run scored, the over 0.5 for the inning number. Correct? If so that's implying

Rox score 21% of the time
Dodgers score 36% of the time
One of the two teams score 46% of the time

My math might be a little off, but just in general terms.
To add to this breakdown that means to determine the best bet (best bet meaning best way to bet the props depending on the side you like) you multiply each teams chance of not scoring in 1st inn or .79 X .64 (since scoring chances or .21 and .36) to get a no score rate of .5056 meaning the 2 indivudually lines suggest that either team will score app 49.44% of the time where as the straight "either team to score prop" suggests they will score roughly 46% of the time. So like I said they arent completely in line but they are within striking distance but certainly an oppourtunity to cut the vig by picking the better of the options depending on what side of the prop you like.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
WildBill's math is correct. Just adding another 2 significant digits to the fair odds which changes the margin a bit:

Rockies score: 21.15% of the time
Dodgers score: 36.48% of the time
Combo prop: At least one of the two teams score: 45.88% of the time

Two team props imply the Combo No score prob. is 50.09%, Yes prob. is thus 49.91%. The Yes prop is priced at 45.88%. So there is a potential of value in one of the 3 lines. E.g if you think the 2 team lines are very close, bet the Combination Yes at +104 with a small edge.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
To me, if I'm betting yes, then it's each team, way better and if no, the both teams. Math wise or not, that's what puts the most $$ in my account, or takes the least out. I still don't see any correlation of one team to the other in such wide spreads.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
To me, if I'm betting yes, then it's each team, way better and if no, the both teams. Math wise or not, that's what puts the most $$ in my account, or takes the least out. I still don't see any correlation of one team to the other in such wide spreads.
You would be indirectly adding vig by betting it your way. You would want to literally do thr opposite based on this example. I can see where you would look naked eye and feel that way but it is clearly better to bet the +104 on yes run in 1st inning than bet the +307 and +151. Remember Cheap the math doesnt lie.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
To me, if I'm betting yes, then it's each team, way better and if no, the both teams. Math wise or not, that's what puts the most $$ in my account, or takes the least out. I still don't see any correlation of one team to the other in such wide spreads.

The team lines have vigorish of 6.73% and 6.84% (roughly a little better than 30 cent lines around -115) so without a very significant handicapping edge, you're losing lots of money.
 

Fezzik

EOG Veteran
Obviously MLB (like all sports is beatable)

The dime line certainly helps.......

I just bet the Dodgers +350 WSeries..........
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Always thought bookmakers only stayed open for bases to retain the customers for football. No two sided action in many baseball games. Not what they want
 
Always thought bookmakers only stayed open for bases to retain the customers for football. No two sided action in many baseball games. Not what they want

Even with lower hold the books still win in the end. You'd think the sharps would get them in Nevada but year after year baseball ends up plus money for the books in their filings.
 

skinny

EOG Addicted
I remember the Barbary Coast in Vegas used a nickle line for the entire season back around 1995 or thereabouts.
They wrote a tremendous amount of business, but I believe they ended up a small loser.
It was a one year experiment.
 
I remember the Barbary Coast in Vegas used a nickle line for the entire season back around 1995 or thereabouts.
They wrote a tremendous amount of business, but I believe they ended up a small loser.
It was a one year experiment.

It was 1994, the strike season. I was there around that counter at 3pm almost every day watching the action and seeing what the books did.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
the barbary coast was very good.....the place was right on the corner... the rooms were easy to get to. The bank of phones near the news stand, so was the diner. Michaels was there too.
 

Heim

EOG Master
It's no coincidence guys like Krackman only bet first 5. They understand negative variance.

But you better have the bankroll to absorb the higher vig/spread during the bad streaks.
 

Brayden11

EOG Dedicated
Lineups and weather help, too.

Do you follow home plate umpires, BRAYDEN11?

A lot of ways to skin a cat and all of the above plays into it. Best of luck and hopefully we can do the EOG at Arlington this year. I’ll vote for Biden in 24 if Big Runner shows up.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
It's no coincidence guys like Krackman only bet first 5. They understand negative variance.

But you better have the bankroll to absorb the higher vig/spread during the bad streaks.
Nothing wrong with betting full game against teams with bad bullpens also.
 

TonyMar

EOG Dedicated
Streaks, good and bad. Ride them both.

Managers matching up vs other weak managers.

Bullpens on fumes, with a weaker starting pitcher going that day.
 
Don't think Sherwood would agree, -33 units.

He's up overall re his online posted records (which go back to at least 2004) in the vast majority of sports he bets. That includes MLB, especially since 2013:

[TABLE]

2013

234-248-0 (+63.00)


2014

231-242-0 (+55.00)


2015

242-287-0 (+12.00)


2016

234-330-0 (-50.00)


2017

245-300-0 (+46.00)


2018

247-310-0 (+74.00)


2019

188-278-0 (-71.00)


2020

81-93-0 (+29.00)


2021

72-107-0 (-28.00)

[/TABLE]
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
What makes MLB the easiest sport to beat?

2 reasons: 1) stale stats- the season is so long you have to dig a bit to realize when the YTD stats are deceptive. That also happens in the NFL, but I think its easier to see in the NFL with the one game a week and extreme focus that sport gets. The other main reason is its such a sport of streaks.
 
2 reasons: 1) stale stats- the season is so long you have to dig a bit to realize when the YTD stats are deceptive. That also happens in the NFL, but I think its easier to see in the NFL with the one game a week and extreme focus that sport gets. The other main reason is its such a sport of streaks.

I'd be interested to hear what time horizons the biggest quants in baseball betting use. I always hear the unsophisticated view of "everything is priced in" but I wonder what can you price in from a game during the first week of the season when the weather was bad and some of your players were still getting into game shape?
 
Top