Your Level of Concern About the Coronavirus......on a scale of 1-10

C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
dogball said:
disagree, many knew how serious it would be. Was modeled for us in China, I think what no one knew
was how the fatality rate would be 1/2 people under 50 and with no apparent underlying health issues.
you are a very sharp mind, Ive known you for around 20 years which is insane but let’s take politics out of this discussion, what fact or date was released and when did it occur to you this was serious?
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Personally I don't think the Chinese have been forthcoming at all. Their model so far is to let the virus run rampant, then lockdown 55M people (after many celebrated the Lunar New Year flew back, all over the world). Do we think that they can completely stop a virus infection that had had 80,000 confirmed cases in a week? Of course not.

I don't think anyone had an accurate model for the US, its just too complicated to accurately model people's motions and infection spread, all you can do is assume infection rates given a limit on large group gatherings (and hand washing and social distancing) and then superimpose projections for the 50 states or 200 cities or whatever. Now given enough guesses, several projections will be close to the actual result. Maybe modelling with a neural net could handle the problem, but with a novel virus you don't really know the infection rates. Even so there is the "Chaos Theory" element that one small perturbation/infection could be magnified by essentially "bad luck" contagion and have a large effect.

I have been disappointed that the elder care facilities have not been better protected. This influences the death rate quite a bit. To compute death rates you have to project how various drugs will be used/developed to minimize symptoms and eliminate deaths. Lots of unknowns.
 
raiders72001

raiders72001

1
ComptrBob said:
Personally I don't think the Chinese have been forthcoming at all. Their model so far is to let the virus run rampant, then lockdown 55M people (after many celebrated the Lunar New Year flew back, all over the world). Do we think that they can completely stop a virus infection that had had 80,000 confirmed cases in a week? Of course not.

I don't think anyone had an accurate model for the US, its just too complicated to accurately model people's motions and infection spread, all you can do is assume infection rates given a limit on large group gatherings (and hand washing and social distancing) and then superimpose projections for the 50 states or 200 cities or whatever. Now given enough guesses, several projections will be close to the actual result. Maybe modelling with a neural net could handle the problem, but with a novel virus you don't really know the infection rates. Even so there is the "Chaos Theory" element that one small perturbation/infection could be magnified by essentially "bad luck" contagion and have a large effect.

I have been disappointed that the elder care facilities have not been better protected. This influences the death rate quite a bit. To compute death rates you have to project how various drugs will be used/developed to minimize symptoms and eliminate deaths. Lots of unknowns.
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And without random testing, it's almost impossible to create an accurate model.
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
First of the Month

is that still a thing?

where all the low income and no income people get their Social Security checks and food stamps or do they spread it out.

after yesterday's dire and austere white house message and the sharp increase in numbers. I'd think today would be a bad day to try to grocery shop.


our west loop whole foods was on strike yesterday for poor working conditions. Grocery stores are facing a challenge to keep their workers from getting sick or burning out with fear and anxeity.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Chi_Archie said:
First of the Month

is that still a thing?

where all the low income and no income people get their Social Security checks and food stamps or do they spread it out.

after yesterday's dire and austere white house message and the sharp increase in numbers. I'd think today would be a bad day to try to grocery shop.


our west loop whole foods was on strike yesterday for poor working conditions. Grocery stores are facing a challenge to keep their workers from getting sick or burning out with fear and anxeity.
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How state/federal aid is distributed (not 100% sure) - they go by the last two numbers of your SS number, roughly 65% the first time and 35% the second time each month. It’s done that way to help the stores with keeping fresh produce available at all times, and it’s easier to budget labor. Each state may differ on this.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
raiders72001 said:
I was late to realize the seriousness of the virus. At the beginning of this thread, I thought it was nothing more than a bad flu. As of a few days ago, I was still underestimating the deaths.
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So was the president, at least you can admit it, which is something he refuses to do and will never do
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
raiders72001 said:
I was late to realize the seriousness of the virus. At the beginning of this thread, I thought it was nothing more than a bad flu. As of a few days ago, I was still underestimating the deaths.
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Glad to have you onboard, it takes a man to admit you were off. This virus and all pandemics should be viewed scientifically - it's all math, not hunches, not emotion, not over or under reaction.

Just as it was a guarantee it would follow the path we are on(approaching the peak), it is a guarantee it will pass, and fairly soon. By june it'll be waning, by july it should be gone.

All these fools saying we cant ever do anything again, we cant play football, etc. that's foolish emotion and ignorance talking.

Pandemics are a natural part of life, always have been always will be, and this one at perhaps a 1% death rate is really not that bad.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
There have also been many hints, subtle and not, that the virus can be transmitted via aerosols. Sixty members of a choir in Seattle gathered March 10 for a practice session for more than 2 1/2 hours. None of them felt ill, and they made no contact with one another. But by this weekend, dozens of the members had fallen ill, and two had died.

Their experience points toward airborne transmission via aerosols, which can travel farther than the large droplets the WHO and the CDC have emphasized. The virus is still most likely to be expelled with a cough or a sneeze, as far as 8 meters (about 26 feet), according to one study. But studies on influenza and other respiratory viruses, including other coronaviruses, have shown that people can release aerosols containing the virus simply by breathing or talking — or, presumably, by singing.
 
F

fifty cint

EOG Dedicated
Trump had 3.5 years to restock the supplies.He was too busy golfing or patting himself on back...or sending them to China when this mess started
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
dogball said:
disagree, many knew how serious it would be. Was modeled for us in China, I think what no one knew
was how the fatality rate would be 1/2 people under 50 and with no apparent underlying health issues.
you are a very sharp mind, Ive known you for around 20 years which is insane but let’s take politics out of this discussion, what fact or date was released and when did it occur to you this was serious?
Click to expand...

China was ANYTHING but forthcoming. They lied and nobody could correctly model for it. I believe every other country in the world who's contracted the virus should send China a bill for the destruction they've caused.
 
E

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
I don't care what side of the political aisle you're on... if you think China has been the least bit honest about their case/death numbers, you may be the most naive human being on the planet.

Most estimates I've seen are 15x-40x worse than what they're reporting. That's 1.2m-3.2m cases and 50,000-150,000 deaths.

And yet the WHO continues to suck Xi's dick like he's some kind of hero.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
ejd_5277 said:
I don't care what side of the political aisle you're on... if you think China has been the least bit honest about their case/death numbers, you may be the most naive human being on the planet.

Most estimates I've seen are 15x-40x worse than what they're reporting. That's 1.2m-3.2m cases and 50,000-150,000 deaths.

And yet the WHO continues to suck Xi's dick like he's some kind of hero.
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21 million fewer Chinese cell phones in use in 2020 says a lot
 
Bushay

Bushay

NHL Expert


LOL! These idiots are still in denial.



This U.S. House “intelligence expert” now thinks he’s a doctor. Devin Nunes again questions need for social distancing as experts warn coronavirus worst is yet to come - CNNPolitics



Nunes again questions need for social distancing as experts warn coronavirus worst is yet to come
California Rep. Devin Nunes on Tuesday complained that his state's decision to close schools is "way overkill" and unnecessarily harms the economy despite experts' urgent calls to maintain social...
cnn.com
 
Bushay

Bushay

NHL Expert
Just further proof this administration is in over their heads and haven't got the first clue.




A Trump official called Thailand last week asking for help with PPE only to be told by Thai officials that we’d just sent them the same supplies. The episode prompted a review process that’s now holding up aid in some cases. #clustertrump



Pence task force freezes coronavirus aid amid backlash
The review came after officials discovered that aid to foreign countries wasn't being coordinated with U.S. requests.
politico.com
 
raiders72001

raiders72001

1
Conclusion Pandemic influenza is a low-probability but high-cost problem that should not be ignored. The current influenza vaccine manufacturing infrastructure in the U.S. is dependent on egg-based production that is too slow to produce adequate doses of vaccines for unexpected pandemic outbreaks and may impair vaccine efficacy
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Here's the first part of the conclusion. Now how could a vaccine be produced faster than what's going on now?
 
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