Re: NBA for opening week
Love to read your analysis, great call on Sacto last night, I went to bed at halftime, and was worried about that one. I was fading the line move on that one, your play made me feel better about it.
I do have a question after reading you for a few days. I am a pretty strict flat bettor, and I know you are just putting a small amount on these ML's. If someone were tailing, it would seem the simplest way to play along would be to play a unit on your sides and maybe 1/4 unit on ML's. Would that be viable? Or, do you think the variance from your actual performance would be too great? Thanks for your answer.
generally speaking, I would agree with 25% on the moneylines. This year the moneylines haven't been quite as good as in years past (it's a major reason I'm saying that parity is getting worse in the NBA) but they are still good. I vary moneylines somewhat. I almost always put something on the ML with dogs, if I'm getting less than +150 (spread is appx 3 or less) then a lot of times I'll just put a little extra on the spread and pass on the ML. No real mathematical basis to support this, it's just what I've done for a long time. In other words I'm betting dog ML's blind if I like the spread. I increase the amount on dog moneylines that I think are pretty far off. This hasn't happened as much this year, but I sometimes am betting on the dog ML and take the spread for a little more to cover the ML in a game I feel is very close to a toss up. LAC/GS was an example, but b/c of the horrible day on Saturday I decided I needed to get some W's and it IS the Clippers... LA/Boston, LA/Cleveland were two other examples in hind sight, I missed the boat on both, big mistakes on my part, missed out on a lot of money. Be careful tailing other posters. I'm not going to lose long term, but I would pay more attention to what someone is looking at on a game. That way, you can 1. become independent with skills, 2. find mistakes or things I or whoever you are looking at have overlooked. Then you can point them out or ask etc. etc. etc.
I definitely don't mind questions. I don't always have a lot of time to look into something at that very moment, but I'm always looking for alternative viewpoints. I don't really need to know that my "Nuggest pick sucked yesterday.." type of statement LOL, but I don't see that happening very much here. Keep in mind that I'm not just fading the public. I don't like to be on the same side of the public, but just because over 80% of the public is on Cleveland doesn't mean I'm going to take Memphis. With OKC, I think the number should be closer to +6, the public is on LA, and I believe OKC has the edge in motivation. The talent gap is considerable so I'm not going LONG, HUGE, LOCK, GOY, type status, but having motivation in the NBA is very big. (Of course I could be wrong about the motivation levels for this game, but I do know Durant from his days at Texas, his psyche.)
I love the Suns tonight, but the line is already -7. Do you see it going higher? Just noticed that you threw a small play on at -7, so obviously you still like them. I usually don't make my plays until 6ET, so the ? still applies as to the line movement.
this is a good question, and an interesting situation. Yesterday I was seeing 8's when this game hit the board. It quickly was bet down or moved down, not all at once. I see that as either an overreaction to the Suns blowout loss, or movement on air by the books trying to scorn those chasing steam (fairly sure not the case here), or bettors putting too much emphasis on the overall home/away numbers for both teams. If you look at the home/away numbers for Charlotte, sure you can come up with -6 or -7 as the spread. Phx has the Lakers next. Having played sports, I feel when a team has a league leader up next, after a blowout loss, there isn't much of a look-ahead. Phoenix needs a win, the Lakers come later. I looked at how Phx typically responds after a home loss and they generally bounce back, the number of times they lose 2 in a row is worrisome but they got NJ when they went on a huge road streak, same with Chicago. Now with Charlotte we have a fundamentalist type of team, they are 6-19 on the road. I don't think they matchup well with Phx, I don't think Phx's playing style is going to sit well with them. I don't see a good reason why the final score isn't something more like Charlotte's game at Houston, Utah, Denver, or Portland than what the oddsmaker is saying happens x times out of 100. I don't think this line is going to move much. I also think that the action may be different at different books, somewhat balanced overall. It's too early for me to get much from my private sources but I'm seeing -7-115 for SIA, -6.5 at BJ, -7-110 at PIN. A lot of times bettors overreact to a blowout loss. I think that number at Pinnacle holds the most significance, they are leaning PHX. I don't think we are going to see -6 again, fairly sure of that. I do think that a move to -7.5 is somewhat likely. Waiting for -6.5 is not worth the risk of having to go with -7.5, knowing the value of the 7.
