NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
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ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
1st half Dallas +2 for .8%
last meeting 1/29, Mavs found themselves down 27 at the half. I tend to think they remember that and maybe, just maybe try not to let that happen again. Adding to the cause is Boston is on a B2B, and just recently played LA and SA. Boston is sitting pretty in the Atlantic with a 14.5 game lead over NJ, and a healthy edge in the standings over Cleveland and Orlando. This is a big game for Dallas. Not only to avenge the embarrassing loss, but they are trying to catch San Antonio and establish themselves ahead of the log-jam that is Portland, Houston, New Orleans and Utah in the West. I think Boston may be more likely than Dallas to be going thru the motions here before the break. I like the 1st half better than the full game in this spot for these reasons and because Dallas shot 55% last game and generally that tends to affect the 2nd half more.
1st half Dallas +2 for .8%
last meeting 1/29, Mavs found themselves down 27 at the half. I tend to think they remember that and maybe, just maybe try not to let that happen again. Adding to the cause is Boston is on a B2B, and just recently played LA and SA. Boston is sitting pretty in the Atlantic with a 14.5 game lead over NJ, and a healthy edge in the standings over Cleveland and Orlando. This is a big game for Dallas. Not only to avenge the embarrassing loss, but they are trying to catch San Antonio and establish themselves ahead of the log-jam that is Portland, Houston, New Orleans and Utah in the West. I think Boston may be more likely than Dallas to be going thru the motions here before the break. I like the 1st half better than the full game in this spot for these reasons and because Dallas shot 55% last game and generally that tends to affect the 2nd half more.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Dallas 1st half should cover about 58% of the time. I think maybe more since I think Boston may not be caring so much about this game. Ray Allen probably won't play. The only thing I don't like about Dallas covering the full game is that they shot 55% last game, and Boston is the type of team that generally comes to play. Boston on B2B and with Dallas home court statistically should be closer to pk.
Dallas 1st half should cover about 58% of the time. I think maybe more since I think Boston may not be caring so much about this game. Ray Allen probably won't play. The only thing I don't like about Dallas covering the full game is that they shot 55% last game, and Boston is the type of team that generally comes to play. Boston on B2B and with Dallas home court statistically should be closer to pk.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Good luck the last half of the season X, I'll be stopping by for valued insight and such along the way...
Good luck the last half of the season X, I'll be stopping by for valued insight and such along the way...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
the 2nd half of the NBA gets tricky. we are actually past the halfway mark, but anyways...some bad teams are probably going to start giving up. some bad teams are not. some teams are going to try out new players, new lineups. some teams will continue to smoke crack during timeouts.
Usually the last 2-4 weeks of the season I have more 2nd half plays than full games for these reasons. Last year the games after the all star break almost all went over the total. The year before that 2 more games went under than over. I tend to think that today the games look to go over so I need to be sure on any unders. I like Mil, Atl, Was, and the Phi under.
the 2nd half of the NBA gets tricky. we are actually past the halfway mark, but anyways...some bad teams are probably going to start giving up. some bad teams are not. some teams are going to try out new players, new lineups. some teams will continue to smoke crack during timeouts.
Usually the last 2-4 weeks of the season I have more 2nd half plays than full games for these reasons. Last year the games after the all star break almost all went over the total. The year before that 2 more games went under than over. I tend to think that today the games look to go over so I need to be sure on any unders. I like Mil, Atl, Was, and the Phi under.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Dallas -7 for 1.1%
just makes no sense. NJ horrible on road currently, bright spot at Washington wow and Philly as *8* point underdogs. Only bad teams are 8 point dogs to the 76ers. Just no reason to back NJ. Lost by 9 at OKC. Dallas has had no problem with them recently at home. I can't see Dallas off a loss and after the break looking ahead b/c they need to repeat what that opponent did 6 hours ago for standings. Discounted b/c the public will be 80% on Dallas, and the Mavs are not the most consistent of teams. at Mavs -10.5 for .7%, I discounted quite a bit.
Dallas -7 for 1.1%
just makes no sense. NJ horrible on road currently, bright spot at Washington wow and Philly as *8* point underdogs. Only bad teams are 8 point dogs to the 76ers. Just no reason to back NJ. Lost by 9 at OKC. Dallas has had no problem with them recently at home. I can't see Dallas off a loss and after the break looking ahead b/c they need to repeat what that opponent did 6 hours ago for standings. Discounted b/c the public will be 80% on Dallas, and the Mavs are not the most consistent of teams. at Mavs -10.5 for .7%, I discounted quite a bit.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Milwaukee/Chicago
no idea from what they are deriving this number. I think I know why they are putting this number out, but from a statistical standpoint I the math wonders how. they like to put a -1 on teams that shouldn't be favored I guess it makes people think that not only should they be favored but that they are a bargain at the lowest possible number. there are some drawbacks. Milwaukee is just out of a jumpshot spectacular that hasn't been taken care of yet. In essence it has, but not ATS as I hope for +2. Then again, there is enough overlay to take care of predicted regression. Strong candidate for what I call due factors should 9-19 Chicago cover.
Milwaukee/Chicago
no idea from what they are deriving this number. I think I know why they are putting this number out, but from a statistical standpoint I the math wonders how. they like to put a -1 on teams that shouldn't be favored I guess it makes people think that not only should they be favored but that they are a bargain at the lowest possible number. there are some drawbacks. Milwaukee is just out of a jumpshot spectacular that hasn't been taken care of yet. In essence it has, but not ATS as I hope for +2. Then again, there is enough overlay to take care of predicted regression. Strong candidate for what I call due factors should 9-19 Chicago cover.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Denver/Philadelphia
I love the 76'ers in this spot. Nuggets have beaten basically no one on the road, that Orlando game was an anomaly, Magic apparently have decided that only the 3 seed is possible. wrong team is favored. Probably the smallest affect a B2B could have all year would be this game. Denver lost to NJ. Philly did as well but that was after a shooting spree (ditto Denver). +2 is probable, but there may be a move on this game. I'm not sure I would take Denver +3.
Denver/Philadelphia
I love the 76'ers in this spot. Nuggets have beaten basically no one on the road, that Orlando game was an anomaly, Magic apparently have decided that only the 3 seed is possible. wrong team is favored. Probably the smallest affect a B2B could have all year would be this game. Denver lost to NJ. Philly did as well but that was after a shooting spree (ditto Denver). +2 is probable, but there may be a move on this game. I'm not sure I would take Denver +3.
Re: NBA for opening week
Philly is playing back to back nights(teams havent faired to well.) Philly is 17-11 at home while Nuggets are 16-11 at home. half game better. Philly is 5-7 on the back end of back to back game. Nuggets are 8-2 the last 10 games. 1 of those losses they shot 30%while NJ shot 46% and the other loss was a quality team in New Orleans. Nuggets are hott man. They beat philly earlier this year by 6 with elton brand and now with out him I dont think they stand a shot at a back to back night against a west coast team with 7 days rest. I'm on the other side but GL with your play.:cheers
Philly is playing back to back nights(teams havent faired to well.) Philly is 17-11 at home while Nuggets are 16-11 at home. half game better. Philly is 5-7 on the back end of back to back game. Nuggets are 8-2 the last 10 games. 1 of those losses they shot 30%while NJ shot 46% and the other loss was a quality team in New Orleans. Nuggets are hott man. They beat philly earlier this year by 6 with elton brand and now with out him I dont think they stand a shot at a back to back night against a west coast team with 7 days rest. I'm on the other side but GL with your play.:cheers
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Milwaukee +2 for 1.1%
safe 2's are gone unless you have outs in China
about the same at +1.5, this is one where I might buy to +2 at -110
there will most likely be a move on this game similar to Phi.
there are some drawbacks to the Bucks but as I posted earlier I think there is enough overlay to take care of things.
Milwaukee +2 for 1.1%
safe 2's are gone unless you have outs in China
about the same at +1.5, this is one where I might buy to +2 at -110
there will most likely be a move on this game similar to Phi.
there are some drawbacks to the Bucks but as I posted earlier I think there is enough overlay to take care of things.
Re: NBA for opening week
good luck tonight bud on a couple of them. Also I'm trying to start a handicapping information only thread on the main page and was hoping you would stop by from time to time. I'm sure there are many things you can shed some light on from money management to strategies. thanks
good luck tonight bud on a couple of them. Also I'm trying to start a handicapping information only thread on the main page and was hoping you would stop by from time to time. I'm sure there are many things you can shed some light on from money management to strategies. thanks
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
GL X, I also have the under in the Clips game, was certainly influenced by your insights along the way....
GL X, I also have the under in the Clips game, was certainly influenced by your insights along the way....
ATX
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ATX
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Re: NBA for opening week
what a debacle that was. figured the under was better than PHX -7.5 since the Suns shot 62% the previous game, but apparently angles are useless against the Clippers. WTF do the Clippers say in post game interviews? We gave it our all but just came up a little short tonight?
what a debacle that was. figured the under was better than PHX -7.5 since the Suns shot 62% the previous game, but apparently angles are useless against the Clippers. WTF do the Clippers say in post game interviews? We gave it our all but just came up a little short tonight?
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I may or may not play the Jazz after my SA bet loses...and always looking at 2nd halves but I'm looking at tomorrow.
Milwaukee +8 for 1.7%
I like it a lot. Clev off a big sht% vs Toronto and with Det up next. Milwaukee off a poor performance with 2x revenge. The number is so off I may add more.
I may or may not play the Jazz after my SA bet loses...and always looking at 2nd halves but I'm looking at tomorrow.
Milwaukee +8 for 1.7%
I like it a lot. Clev off a big sht% vs Toronto and with Det up next. Milwaukee off a poor performance with 2x revenge. The number is so off I may add more.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
playing. most are W/A. sometimes I forget to hit post. nobody really follows this stuff too much, maybe reads it, but people are too opinionated to follow someone for free... right now I've got about 20 screens open and going back and forth back and forth back and forth. getting dizzy. at 231.5 on PHX, I would still hit the under for the same amount. I would pass on OKC +7.5, maybe a little on that but +8 will probably pop up later. I'm going to end up with something like .7% on -7(-120) and 1.1% on +9, injury games tend to middle more often. I am going to lay some off on PHX, hoping for a 7, but wont get there. like
I'm probably going to put a little more on Milw and ML
not sure about NY 49/90 bothers me from 3 games ago
not sure about Sac
I am sure about Houston
I am sure about Washington
I like Indiana but not sure w/ that injury
today is kinda tough with these crap teams playing one another.
Mil, Hou, for sure, Wash, maybe SAC, maybe NY, haven't looked too hard at a couple others, but I'm thinking that Portland total has dipped a little low.
playing. most are W/A. sometimes I forget to hit post. nobody really follows this stuff too much, maybe reads it, but people are too opinionated to follow someone for free... right now I've got about 20 screens open and going back and forth back and forth back and forth. getting dizzy. at 231.5 on PHX, I would still hit the under for the same amount. I would pass on OKC +7.5, maybe a little on that but +8 will probably pop up later. I'm going to end up with something like .7% on -7(-120) and 1.1% on +9, injury games tend to middle more often. I am going to lay some off on PHX, hoping for a 7, but wont get there. like
I'm probably going to put a little more on Milw and ML
not sure about NY 49/90 bothers me from 3 games ago
not sure about Sac
I am sure about Houston
I am sure about Washington
I like Indiana but not sure w/ that injury
today is kinda tough with these crap teams playing one another.
Mil, Hou, for sure, Wash, maybe SAC, maybe NY, haven't looked too hard at a couple others, but I'm thinking that Portland total has dipped a little low.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I was going to update during the all star break. didn't happen. not sure of the exact percentage but I'm up a lot. I haven't had any bad losing streaks, I also haven't taken too many chances. I don't really want to know quite yet, but maybe this thread can be imported to excel if you really want to know. I used to update every day but stopped 3-4 years ago b/c it takes a long time and I figure I just put the information out there...buyer beware. If someone is going to follow info they need to track it, too many people have posted BS records on the forums. Plus with a posted record it's just asking for attention, usually wars start...I'm more interested in just re-reading this stuff later.
I can't remember the last time I got a headache trying to come up with the plan for the games. Trying to visualize what is going to happen in these games today is not easy.
waiting on numbers, but will probably look something like this:
(these are the worst #'s as far as percentages)
ATL over 192 for .8% (Oden out should help the over)
PHX under 231 for and add'l .4 to .6% (waiting on info, total of about 1.5%)
Milwaukee ML for .3%, may add to spread of 1.7% but line is so off I need to be cautious.
Houston -3 for 1.1%
Memphis, Sacramento, Washington, Indiana...2 out of these should win SU, trying to figure out %'s is driving me mad.
I was going to update during the all star break. didn't happen. not sure of the exact percentage but I'm up a lot. I haven't had any bad losing streaks, I also haven't taken too many chances. I don't really want to know quite yet, but maybe this thread can be imported to excel if you really want to know. I used to update every day but stopped 3-4 years ago b/c it takes a long time and I figure I just put the information out there...buyer beware. If someone is going to follow info they need to track it, too many people have posted BS records on the forums. Plus with a posted record it's just asking for attention, usually wars start...I'm more interested in just re-reading this stuff later.
I can't remember the last time I got a headache trying to come up with the plan for the games. Trying to visualize what is going to happen in these games today is not easy.
waiting on numbers, but will probably look something like this:
(these are the worst #'s as far as percentages)
ATL over 192 for .8% (Oden out should help the over)
PHX under 231 for and add'l .4 to .6% (waiting on info, total of about 1.5%)
Milwaukee ML for .3%, may add to spread of 1.7% but line is so off I need to be cautious.
Houston -3 for 1.1%
Memphis, Sacramento, Washington, Indiana...2 out of these should win SU, trying to figure out %'s is driving me mad.