NBA for opening week

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

What a crazy way to cover that 1Q under. Almost the reverse of the 4th last night. There were 35 on the board with 5:27 to go and only scored 11 the rest of the way, congrats, X.:cheers
 
Re: NBA for opening week

this game looks a LOT like what I've been talking about. stats to score , gameflow is :+clueless

on the total I had 45.5, should have lost, but so should the over last night. I'll take it. I'm not as good after game 3's, but I think I've said that. If the halftime score is above 97, I'm probably going to look hard at the 2h under or maybe the 3rd q under.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

this game looks a LOT like what I've been talking about. stats to score , gameflow is :+clueless

on the total I had 45.5, should have lost, but so should the over last night. I'll take it. I'm not as good after game 3's, but I think I've said that. If the halftime score is above 97, I'm probably going to look hard at the 2h under or maybe the 3rd q under.
I'm the same way for whatever reason....have been doing well but took this game off because I couldn't get a feel for it.
 

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
Re: NBA for opening week

I didn't mean it that way, just was commenting on one of the factors that ATX and I have discussed during the season. The overtime was the only reason it went over, so to me, the lean was actually faulty, but lucky.12io4j2w90
I definitely pay attention to the pinny lean but what is your stance on it when they just shift juice instead of changing the number. I noticed several times during the ncaa season that a line would shift to say 139 from 137.5 or so and Pinny would leave up the 137.5 and sky the juice. Are they trying to shy away wagers on the under knowing most would rather have 139 instead of 137 or trying to get more on it with the + sign on the wager? I've battled myself back and forth to what it means...maybe nobody wants to play the 137.5 with such high juice so what exactly does it mean?

Would love to hear your guys thoughts on this one. :thumbsup
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I didn't mean it that way, just was commenting on one of the factors that ATX and I have discussed during the season. The overtime was the only reason it went over, so to me, the lean was actually faulty, but lucky.12io4j2w90
I know, that was my point, the Pinny lean and they way the game played out, as Chick Hearn would say, " no harm, no foul, no ambulance"...
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I definitely pay attention to the pinny lean but what is your stance on it when they just shift juice instead of changing the number. I noticed several times during the ncaa season that a line would shift to say 139 from 137.5 or so and Pinny would leave up the 137.5 and sky the juice. Are they trying to shy away wagers on the under knowing most would rather have 139 instead of 137 or trying to get more on it with the + sign on the wager? I've battled myself back and forth to what it means...maybe nobody wants to play the 137.5 with such high juice so what exactly does it mean?

Would love to hear your guys thoughts on this one. :thumbsup
I'm no expert, but I interpret it to mean that they want action on the under because over is the correct side. In other words, they're trying to goad you into a sucker bet. Just my opinion, I think ATX would be the man for this question, because he has used the lean to great effect over the years.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

X, not to overlook tonight's action, but I'm liking Orlando tomorrow +8. Not quite the game 6 scenario, but with all those points, we don't have to eliminate the team, just put a scare into them.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Guessing X would take the points here, Denver has given no indication that they are intimidated by either the Lakers, playing on the road, or the situation.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

X, not to overlook tonight's action, but I'm liking Orlando tomorrow +8. Not quite the game 6 scenario, but with all those points, we don't have to eliminate the team, just put a scare into them.
Munson, I echo your sentiments. 8 is too many points in this spot. I have a feeling Cleveland takes it in a squeaker. Van Gundy is doing a hell of a job getting the Magic to stay focused on the road. They knocked off both Philly and Boston on the road. Cleveland is much better than those two teams, but still, eight? Too much.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

probably passing until the 2h. Orlando is a huge trap play. Very difficult to lay 7 (prob gets there). It's hard to see the Cavs covering, but Cleveland -7 covers over 55% of the time historically (actuarial market). probably a good spot for a 2nd half under.

poker is going well. no mistakes. pretty tough beat cost me several hours of work:
(stalk mode, over-the-gun, image: shown down 3 times with straight or better, tough to get action.)
AK is a CALLING hand. I have been making 70% of all poker money by calling with it, not raising. In addition, simply calling with AK really allows me to dictate action at the table, after a show down with AK I can steal/re-steal the next pot or two by raising no matter my position. Of course, every table is different, but with this strategy what I'm mainly concerned with is small pocket pairs connecting, with AK the majority of connects are 2nd nuts or better. These are all BIG money hits with AK: nut flush over flush, " straight, two pair, full house over ...., a lot of times without a substantial raise any Ace will call and that is what I'm hoping for...

hero: over the gun (utg+1) AsKh
calls utg raise of 2xBB
villain: small blind.
3 people had called. player from Russia. they are generally terrible poker players from what I've seen, very impatient and don't seem to know where they are in a hand. I had noticed this player shoving a couple times before to pick up little more than blinds, maniacal. Villain shoves all-in more than 50 BB's into a pot containing less than 8. it's folded around to me. I had already made up my mind I was going to call any raise, but I didn't figure it would be this much. AA had been slow-played a couple times at this table, I just didn't put villain on this hand. KK was a possibility, but something didn't add up, normally just about anyone would want one caller with KK, normally AA or KK is flat called or 2-4bet. The other couple of times villain did this was from the cut-off and the BB, after he saw what the big stacks did. I was probably the only player he was concerned with, the other guys for sure didn't have an Ace or pair. It was difficult to put villain on an exact range but I felt that QQ was the best possible. I also felt VERY strongly that villain was semi-bluffing with a strong ace or possibly KQ. Either way I was ahead for the day and these types of opportunities take a while to develop. I would like nothing better than one of the other players behind me to call as well. No such luck.

villain turns over AcJd.

flop: 3 diamonds.
turn: Ad
river: who cares.

pretty bad beat. what really sucked is a couple of players heckled villain and he left after the next hand (I took about 7 BB's from him after this one).

a little worse than the 1000+ man tournament that I slept-walked into top 70 only to have J4os call my J10s on a board of 10s/7s/8c.

runner/runner 5,6 not in spades.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

So, G6 in Denver. Lakes would like nothing better than to bring this series to an end. I don't see Denver playing anything but "crash ball" as described by Phil. I would not be surprised to see the Lakes win this one as they have now had two games to beat this type of play, I don't see Denver trying to shoot 3's all night to beat them, not going to work. So, if you think "crash ball" is coming, Lakes ML is certainly got to be considered here.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX, that was quite a night of poker you described above, how often do you get AK that you discussed that particular hand in so much detail? On that 'villain' showdown, you already know there are bad beats in any game, but when that much is at stake, it's obviously harder to overcome. Poker to me is still gambling, but a form where your intellect and guts can dictate the outcome more often. In sports, we just play the numbers, not as much of a mental exercise, it seems to me. Thanks for the story, even though I don't play, I understand just enough to get the gist of it.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX, that was quite a night of poker you described above, how often do you get AK that you discussed that particular hand in so much detail? On that 'villain' showdown, you already know there are bad beats in any game, but when that much is at stake, it's obviously harder to overcome. Poker to me is still gambling, but a form where your intellect and guts can dictate the outcome more often. In sports, we just play the numbers, not as much of a mental exercise, it seems to me. Thanks for the story, even though I don't play, I understand just enough to get the gist of it.

a lot. it really just depends on the table on how I play it. but status quo is slow play is the best calling hand there is. poker is really just about switching gears, munson you would be good at it. math is fairly simple, $mngmnt is less of a factor than sports, it comes down to reads at elite levels. at lower levels decent math will make just about anyone $500/day. I'm more of a tournament player that started funding cash games with tournys. I just started heads-up. That's where the money is. I just finished a 96 hour session. I think I slept 8-10. I made a house. kind of like found a gang. no gf's we do poker like junkies do drugs. It's all about implied odds...IF/WHEN you are bankrolled. finding games is also key. I'm sitting down with 5% or less of poker BR, man oh man so many of them must be sleeping with 20%+....can't even push me off a flush draw some hands...
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

a lot. it really just depends on the table on how I play it. but status quo is slow play is the best calling hand there is. poker is really just about switching gears, munson you would be good at it. math is fairly simple, $mngmnt is less of a factor than sports, it comes down to reads at elite levels. at lower levels decent math will make just about anyone $500/day. I'm more of a tournament player that started funding cash games with tournys. I just started heads-up. That's where the money is. I just finished a 96 hour session. I think I slept 8-10. I made a house. kind of like found a gang. no gf's we do poker like junkies do drugs. It's all about implied odds...IF/WHEN you are bankrolled. finding games is also key. I'm sitting down with 5% or less of poker BR, man oh man so many of them must be sleeping with 20%+....can't even push me off a flush draw some hands...
96 hour session? I've heard of them, but it seems to be definitely a younger man's game, X. I was figuring you were on a poker spree when you didn't talk hoops the last couple of nights. I wish the internet was around 20 years ago. I had a much quicker, sharper mind then. Several surgeries and years later, I don't have the acuity and comprehension of new facts and figures that would be necessary, but I appreciate the compliment. The games seem to be everywhere, but I'm guessing the trick is finding the rooms where the money is. After that, you have the strategy down, the self-control that keeps you out of trouble and the stamina to play these marathons you describe. I applaud you.:cheers
 
Re: NBA for opening week

No limit has a big portion of its strategy in tells, as amount bet, amount not bet, etc. I play limit and have watched NL guys get torched thinking they can out run the better hand with limit bets, never works, never will. I played Saturday live 3-6 limit and was card dead, left down 60 of the 80 br., some days you just know it is not going to come your way.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

96 hour session? I've heard of them, but it seems to be definitely a younger man's game, X. I was figuring you were on a poker spree when you didn't talk hoops the last couple of nights. I wish the internet was around 20 years ago. I had a much quicker, sharper mind then. Several surgeries and years later, I don't have the acuity and comprehension of new facts and figures that would be necessary, but I appreciate the compliment. The games seem to be everywhere, but I'm guessing the trick is finding the rooms where the money is. After that, you have the strategy down, the self-control that keeps you out of trouble and the stamina to play these marathons you describe. I applaud you.:cheers
if I spot three weak players at a table I am not moving ever. I will stay until they leave. But most of this is from online experience, it's a bit more tricky than live. In live poker, there is only one game that I haven't crushed the majority of the time, and I have reason to believe it is somewhat rigged so I haven't gone back there in a while. Oh but I will, and I'll get it back and then some.

change of venue, was just passing through... OGD as always. probably SBR as well. waiting for 2h of Finals game 1.
 
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