NBA for opening week

#1
up a decent amount on preseason. I don't intend to go any other direction, and never have, at least not for long. Line moves on totals are generally sharp early in the season, but with the football feast I haven't had time to play the information game in baskets.

Boston -6 for 1.0%
the home team has dominated the series. Cleveland turned into a bad road team at the end of the last regular season. These two have met twice in the preseason losing by two on the 10th and by four on the 14th. So why would the oddsmakers put this one at 7? Because Boston should be more like 8. Sure teams are a little rusty, but they are raising that banner and I'm getting a free point on line movement.
 
#4
Re: NBA for opening week

took Arkansas State +24 over 'Bama for 1.1% if you know me from OGD, it's going to move, possible look ahead and should be closer to 21.

back to NBA....

Lakers -7.5 over Portland
raising the banner, another home/home series Portland should be improved but not so much tonight.
 
#6
Re: NBA for opening week

adding 1.0% to Texas Tech at +6
I already have 2.0% at +7 -120 for a total of 3.0%
anything over 2.5% as you know is over 60%
 
#10
Re: NBA for opening week

Up by Lake Texoma12io4j2w90
guard that border from them land thieves :+whipping
might be playing a 2nd half or two,

openers for 10/28 and some have already moved...

-190 Tor
-5.5 phi
-202 atl
-8 phi
191 nj
-5.5 wash
200.5 mia
-3 ny
-188 indi
-10 ny
-199 mil
-1 ok
202.5 sac
-5 min
190.5 phx
-3 sa
193 mem
-12 hou
210.5 den
-7 utah
-4.5 no
209 gs
-8.5 lak
206 lac
 
#11
Re: NBA for opening week

pass on Cleve/Bos 2h. nothing sticks out too much. I am leaning heavily to the over but already have it for the game. ok, screw it, time to get my feet wet.

Clev/Bos over 93.5 for .3%
 
#20
Re: NBA for opening week

atx

good to see you around.

lets us know how this goes.
cool to see ya again, OGD going thru a bb changeover.

I'm discounting slightly b/c I don't have enough numbers yet, but for the first 2 weeks every year the info I get is usually perty dam good , then I have what I need. Last year's NBA was subpar, had a bunch of pushes, dog ML's didn't so as well as usual, and NBA playoffs was only +11%, but I'll settle for almost +19% every year risking an avg of .6%. College last year was good but I didn't bet nearly as many games. This year football has been lights out. "It's all good..." and I may lose at first, but I will never lose for the year.

for those that don't know me...let's just say that I've been around since Shrink created light and Panther had his teeth.

Rockets under 191 for .7%
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#23
Re: NBA for opening week

good to see you around ATX, i remember you from 6yrs ago at the RX, back when it was Shrinks.

SSI
 
#24
Re: NBA for opening week

Good luck ATX

When you say .5% is that 1/2 % of you bankroll if you do not mind me asking
no sir. good question.

100% is bankroll: defined as money set aside that would be in a 401k, stock market, bonds, real estate. NOT milk money, mortgage, etc. Some people invest in the stock market, I do a little, but the SPORTS market is much, much higher ROI. Better than real estate. Less risk than dope runs.

people say unit this, unit that. well, units were just so 80's bro. Everybody has their own definition of a unit. Kodiak Units were infinite, start at Game of Year for 5 units, by the end of the season he'd be down 500 units so his "unit" would grow to several hundred to try to catch up. A "unit" should be 1% of bankroll. That is the universal standard of competent risk on a single event. That is an average. There are exceptions. Some people flat bet (and a person should until they have several hundred wagers tracked). Some people vary bet size according to perceived advantage vs a market number. And "perceived" is the key word.

There I go rambling again. But most people know that it's not about sports picks. It's not about winning, it's about how much, it's about the psychology involved by sport, by season, by subset, by month, by week. It's a blog. I learn from my subconscious by writing. I can tell exactly what I was thinking by what I write, even by writing not much at all. Sometimes I'm chatty, sometimes it's just Kent State +8. I go back and read what I write later, it's the weird way that I learn. It's how I know a lot of angles, it's how I know which way the line will move. It's how I know a 65% cover from a toss-up at +102. Not that I know that much. Once you think you know much, that's when you lose. That is the PSYCHOLOGY of this market. It's how underdogs cover so many games and win straight up. They aren't the better team. They know this and are the MOTIVATED team. They don't play "not to lose." They let it all hang out with nothing to lose. But they listen to their coach. The coach is MONEY MANAGEMENT. The coach keeps them in the league in case they fall short so that they can fight to be a winner the next time. This is happens every day, no every hour, every minute. The $MGMNT parameters are so ingrained in me at this point that no matter how wasted I get it's ALWAYS Sam Adams, a good decision. My best bets have usually been wasted. I'm conservative by nature, can barely beat half the table at poker without a BAC of .20, but with a bit of liquid courage...I'm not an alcoholic, but I'm getting too old to drink every day. One of my prided accomplishments was killing BOTH NCAA and NFL this year without being drunk the majority of the time.

So now you know why I'm infinitely pissed off at the RX. I hadn't posted there in years, but that's where I started posting. I have literally thousands of rants like this that I used to go back and read. Everything from money management to the sports market vs stock market arguments with Raiders et al to the 2nd half NBA angles to the Blood Wars with Kodiak, MFG, etc.

Looks like I'm off the scale at the mouth today. And I know why. I'm nervous. Not enough NBA games yet for numbers. So I'm going off systems and going off paid4information. Worked last year, and the year before, and the year before that. It's better to worry about that, keeps my mind off Texas. Texas Tech +6'? WTF kinda line was that? You know even though I have a very rare 3.0% on the Red Raiders of course I hope the oddsmakers are right. I was hoping the line would come out Texas -3.5 and not -2.5, the difference between a shade on the fave vs dog. Thought is was a misposted line, but no. Injury to Harrell AND Crab? nope. Damn I hate Lubbock, and I have a bad feeling about the home sliced refs.

Oh yeah, I forgot to answer the question. and no I don't mind. .5% is definitely not half my bankroll. it's 1/2 of 1 percent or 1/200th of BR. At the beginning of seasons I often go .5, .7, up to 1.0 until I have proven to myself that I have a grasp of the teams, and am better than the line, even though this WILL be winning season number 9 and all in a row (underdog psychology :) Since the NBA is everyday and I bet a LOT of games I will probably keep it about that strength, but I do have some 1.5%'s and will go up to 5.0% but last year I only had one of those in the NBA, but I did have another 3.0% (LAK+3vsPHXregseas) and several 2.5%'s.

I don't use mechanical systems. I look at lines, I look at a few numbers and bet what "looks" off. I am good at reading sharp outs, I know who the public will be on and that is part of it too. Sometimes I'll say that the line should be "Lakers -5" when it is +3. But that isn't always an ability, that is usually only a perception possible with alcohol. But all that to say this...

.7% is usually about 54%
1.1% is usually closer to 56%
1.5% and I'm thinking at least 56%
2.0% I'm not throwing this kind of risk into something about 60%
2.5% over 60% historically
over 2.5% I won't even say.

my home is back up and running so I'm back off to my spot. But I may stop in from time to time. It's hard to post at two different places.

Ignore all else, but this!!

Unless you are wise you WILL NOT beat the NBA.

In NCAA there are a lot of soft spots. In the NFL you can get lucky. In the NBA your luck WILL run out.

there is hope...

the people that make money think of this as a market, it's not betting it's investing. every day when I wake up there is something to invest in. there's no reason to go for broke because that's what will happen. to beat the line you've got to put in the time.

no teasers. no parlays. no lines moved 1.5 off pinnacle openers.

and no more than 1% of your bankroll on any play.

sounds easy. betcha can't do it.
 
#25
Re: NBA for opening week

good to see you around ATX, i remember you from 6yrs ago at the RX, back when it was Shrinks.

SSI
me too :)

you were looking into some nice systems.

left the rx about that time, been at peep's ever since.

hope all is well, and best of luck this year!!

I'm guessing I haven't changed a bit? :blink:
 
#26
Re: NBA for opening week

Remember you over there, glad to see you here, much better place to be, good luck, I'll be checking in for your selections daily.
 

SSI

EOG Dedicated
#27
Re: NBA for opening week

ATX

really nice read.... i now remember alot of what you wrote, way back then. i remember the wars..

nice to see you around. wish you would hang around here.

Junk, if you guys could get ATX, it would be a major plus for this place..

SSI
 
#29
Re: NBA for opening week

Remember you over there, glad to see you here, much better place to be, good luck, I'll be checking in for your selections daily.


well I won't say that the rx sucks.

ok, I just did, but those guys are so lost it's just comedy. I'm pretty sure they deleted all 3000+ my posts after banning me for asking legitimate questions from a jokester no matter the sarcasm. Even though I stopped posting there, I would sometimes go back and read my rants as a point of reference.

I will say this....I'm not the best person to follow, I often bet more than 70% of the NBA board and half a dozen totals, then sometimes I'll bet more than half of the 2nd halves. Then try to make time for colleges. I'm not looking for a following, I'm not vying for attention, I'm a straight shooter, and there's a ton of stuff that I don't know. I call it a strive for optimization.

I will let you know my plan. For about the first two weeks of the NBA, before there are enough numbers for me to work with, I follow information. It's worked for the last 3 seasons. Usually in the ballpark of 4-5%. I'm not usually going to get the best of the number during this time but that's the agreement and it usually doesn't matter. I don't like not being the chef in the kitchen but I'm not attending preseason games or scouting practices.

Worst case scenario: let's say they all lose today. doesn't matter. if they all lose tomorrow, then I'm looking at probably a -6.0% hole, and I'll be pissed but it's buyer beware and it will take time to dig out, but that's pretty much it. It will be lost time. Lost time means lost money for the balance at the end of the season, but it is what it is. Almost every year there's something like a 5-20 stretch at one point, but I like to mention that same year there's two 20-5 stretches. It's all about having a plan, and without money management there is no plan. Most people on forums like to follow "hot" cappers, guys on a 12-2 run. I tend to think those guys are more likely to lose their next 3 games than otherwise. If you are on a fast moving train, ride it. But don't get hurt trying to get on. There I go again.
 
#31
Re: NBA for opening week

this is an example of a debacle:

yes the subset won, but on one of the easiest, most profitable subsets in NBA playoff history, 7.1% had me pissed. It was a little bit better since I didn't post everything but it should have been closer to +20%. Boston around +190 to win the Finals vs LA? That should have been...nope there is no shouldhavebeens in this racket. Boston +9.5 in game 3? Those two lines were some of the craziest offerings I have seen. Instead of taking advantage I tried to figure out what the hell I was missing. Asked a OS bookmaker about it. "Not touching it..." Maybe that's what the oddsmaker was trying to do? But that argument is rebutted with the lines from games 4,5 (+7.5, +7)

Rubbish. The psychology remains strong. Debacle? No.
7% return in 2 months is GRAND. Can I do better, yes. I WILL do better. But I don't need to. I will be happy with 3% and I won't take unnecessary risks to prove otherwise. Which reminds me...I have 3% on Texas Tech this weekend :( But at +6 and better it's a 65% winner :)

You know that NCAA March Madness saying the CBS guys like to say after a 2 seed beats a 15 seed in an ugly 1 point game? "Survive and Advance." I don't even like to keep a record most of the time. I know about how I'm doing but it's pointless to know exactly where I'm at. #1 on losing streaks I risk less, I don't need to know how bad the losing streak is, I already know I'm losing. #2 on winning streaks I risk less because after that 7th win in a row there's a lot less chance it gets to 8 and so on, I don't need to know I've won 7 in a row. #3 you know how long it takes to add up all the games every day? it's not just an easy 5-4 for .6%, I've got one at 1.2%, another two at 1.0%, a couple at .7%, 3 at .6%, and an add-on or lean at +100 for .4%, and that's before 2nd halves. Then repeat for college basketball and football. Then use the chart to calc vig, and it only took 35 minutes after double checking but guess what, 2 football games moved off of 3, a ML moved from +210 to +180, and 2 totals moved 2.5 points a piece. And I'm completely sidetracked from the upcoming games, I'm not hunting, I'm gathering. Then some forum mathnut asks "aren't you .023% off on the total from 3 days ago?? Hell if I know, Hell if I care. My accounts look about good enough to me. These are all true stories, funny yes, but I pretty much have to look at every NBA game for the entire year. Sure I take days off but I look at the ones that I miss and often without looking at the score first. Then you throw in college, and football at the same time...No way I can follow all the college basketball teams. It took 80 hours a week to get on top of all the NCAA football teams every week until about a couple weeks ago. There's twice as many basketball teams. Apparently my circadian basketball clock has kicked in as my brain prepares for the upcoming circus of numbers. Anyways, this is what I set out to do a few hundred words ago, just as a point of reference. Maybe some feedback, maybe because nobody in the beginning really told me a lot of this stuff or showed me and I wished they had. Well, there was Sick Gambler but most of his forum life seems was spent in a forum trial or in his mom's basement bitching about canceled hockey teasers or some or the like.

2.0 -110 = 1.81
1.5 -110 = 1.36
1.2 -110 = 1.09
1.0 -110 = .91
.8 -110 = .72
.7 -110 = .64
2008
+1.81 total of 2.0% on Cleveland at -2 w
adding 1.0% to over 186.5/187 Utah/Houston total of 2.0% l
+1.36 Dallas/NO over 192.5 for 1.5% w
reducing my position on Dallas/NO, buying back half as under 192.5 for .7% and... l
+1.36 New Orleans -4 for 1.5% w
2nd half Game 1 Phoenix +5.5 for .7% l
+.64 4/19 Utah +1 for .7% w
Toronto +7 for .7% l
+.91 Lakers -8 for 1.0% w
+1.36 Philadelphia +10 for 1.5% w
Philadelphia over 179 for 1.0% l
Toronto -1 2h for .7% l
Toronto under 97.5 for .3% l
adding .3% to Toronto -1 2h game 1 l
ATL/BOS over 190 for .8% l
G2 Phoenix +3 to -120 for 1.5% l
+1.09 G2 Cleveland -1.5 for 1.2% w
+1.36 G2 Jazz +1 for 1.5% w
Utah over 182.5 for 1.5% l
+.91 Utah under 184.5 for 1.0% w
+.72 G2 Toronto/Orlando over 199 for .8% w
+.72 G2 New Orleans -3.5 for .8% w
+.91 G2 Boston -15 for 1.0% w
+.91 G2 Lakers -8 for 1.0% w
G2 Philadelphia +10.5 for .8% l
+.55 G2 Lakers under 230 for .6% w
+.75 G2 5 pt teaser at 3/2 Det -5 to Bos -10 to Lakers -3 for .5% w
NBA title: Jazz +1600 for .5% l
Western Conference title: Jazz +560 for .3% l
Western Conference title: Phoenix +1300 for .4% l
+.91 G3 Jazz over 183 for 1.0% w
G3 Jazz -9 for 1.2% l
G3 Cleveland +5.5 for 1.2% l
****minus only- 14.6
+.91 G3 Tor/Orl under 204 for 1.0% w
G3 Jazz/Rox under 184.5 for .7% (hoping for 185+ and .8% on that) combined with G3 Jazz/Rox over 183 for 1.0% wagered earlier. l
G3 Jazz team total over 95.5 for 1.0% l
G3 Philadelphia/Detroit over 180 for 1.0% l
G4 Toronto -3 over Orlando for 1.0% l
+.91 G3 San Antonio +7 for 1.0% w
+.91 G3 NO/Dallas under 197 for 1.0% w
+.91 G3 Phil +6 for 1.0% w
G3 New Orleans +7 to -120 for .5% l
+1.81 G3 LA/Denver under 231,230 for 2.0% w
G3 Denver -1 for .7% same at -1.5 l
+.91 G3 Atlanta/Boston over 187.5 for 1.0% w
+.72 G4 Toronto/Orlando under 204 for .8% w
G4 Utah/Houston over 185.5 for 1.0% l
+.72 G4 Houston +9 for .8% w
ML +380 or more for .2% l
+.54 G4 Cleveland +5 for .6% w
+.54 G4 Phx/SA under 201 for .6% w
+.54 G4 New Orleans +5 for .6% w
G4 Philly at +6 for .8% l
G5 Toronto/Orlando over 203 for .6% l
+.91 G5 Orlando -7 for 1.0% w
+.91 G4 Boston/Atlanta over 188.5 for 1.0% w
G4 Denver 1st Q +1.5 for 1.5% l
+.91 G4 Denver/LA under 226 for 1.0% w
G5 New Orleans -6 for 1.2% l
G5 New Orleans/Dallas over 194 for .8% l
G5 Philadelphia +10 for 1.3% l
G5 Utah at +2 to -120 for .8% l
New Orleans -10.5 +185 for .2% l
total of 1.0% on G5 Spurs -5 p
+.64 G5 Spurs under 198 for .7% w
+.45 G5 Phil/Det over 177.5 for .5% w
G6 Philadelphia 1Q +1.5 for 1.0% l
G1 New Orleans/SA over 183.5 for 1.5% l
+1.36 G6 Cleveland +4 for 1.5% w
prop: who will win Western Conference?
Lakers vs Field. I'm hitting "Fields" up to around -170 for about 1.0% l
+1.27 G6 Atlanta +9 for 1.4% w
+.91 G6 Utah -7 for 1.0% w
+.09 Tau Ceramica/CSKA Moscow over 147 for .1% w
+.36 G1 SA/NO under 184.5 for .4% w
+1.36 G1 New Orleans -3 for 1.5% w
G1 Orlando +7 to -120 for 1.1% l
ML +270 for .4% l
G1 Orl/Det over 189 for .7% l
+.91 G2 SA/NO over 182 for 1.0% w
+2.27 G1 Cleveland +10 over Boston for 2.5% w
Cav ML +470 for .5% l
G2 Detroit/Orlando under 185 for 1.0% l
+1.09 adding .2% to G2 New Orleans -2.5, total of 1.2% w
*******adds +40.04, minus 35.1
+.54 G2 Detroit -6.5 over Orlando for .6% w
G3 Detroit +4 for 2.5% l
G2 Utah at +7 for 2.0% l
+1.09 G2 Lakers/Jazz over 210 for 1.2% w
G2 Cleveland +9 for 2.0% l
ML +370 for .5% l
+.54 G3 Detroit/Orlando over 187 for .6% w
G2 Jazz ML +260 or more for .4% l
prop: G3 Detroit -3.5 +230 for .2% l
G3 New Orleans +7 for 1.5% l
+1.36 G2 Cleveland/Boston under 178 for 1.5% w
G5 Boston/Cleveland under 176 for 1.0% l
+1.18 G5 Cleveland +9 for 1.3% w
ML +420 for .2% same at +400 l
+.91 G5 Utah +8.5 for 1.0% w
G5 Lakers/Utah under 212.5 for .5% l
G6 New Orleans +7 for 1.0% l
G6 New Orleans over 184 for .3% l
G7 New Orleans/SA 1st quarter over 46 for 1.5% l
+.54 G7 SA/NO 1st half over 91.5 for .6% w
G7 Hornets at -4 for .6% l
G1 Detroit +4.5 for 1.2% l
ML +170 for .4% l
G1 Detroit/Boston over 173.5 for .8% l
+1.00 G1 San Antonio 1st half +4 for 1.1% w
+.800 ML +200 for .4% w
G1 LA/SA over 195 for .6% l
+.72 G1 SA at +8 for .8% w
Series prop: Pistons/Celtics over 6.5 games +150 for .2% l
+.91 G2 Detroit at +5 for 1.0% w
+.525 ML +175 for .3% w
+1.36 total of 1.5% on G2 San Antonio under 194 w
G2 San Antonio +7 to -120 for 1.0% l
G2 SA ML +250 for .3% l
G2 SA 1st half +3.5 for .8% l
ML +170 for .3% l
+1.09 G6 Boston +5 for 1.2% w
+.760 ML +190 for .4% w
+1.81 adding .5% to G1 LA/Boston under at 193 for a total of 2.0% w
+1.09 G1 Boston -3 for 1.2% w
+1.36 adding .5% to Boston +1.5 games for a total of 1.5% w
exact series result: Boston wins 4-3 +425 for .5% l
hedging/middling a bit with G1 LAL/BOS over 191 for .6% l
+.82 adding to G1 Boston at -2 to -120 for .9% w
+1.18 G2 Boston at +2 to -120 for 2.0% w
G2 Boston under 191 for .8% l

+1.30 find +130 on Boston to win the Finals I would put 1.0% w
series prop: Will there be OT? yes +320 for .2% l

+.64 G3 Boston +9.5 for .7% w
G3 1Q Lakers -3 -110 for 1.0% l
G3 Boston/LA over 195.5 for .8% l
G3 prop: over 201.5 +180 for .4% l
G4 LA winning margin 4-6 +400 for .2% l
G4 " 7-9 +300 for .1% l
+.300 G4 Paul Pierce over 5 free throws made +100 for .3% w
+1.18 G4 Boston +8 to -120 for 1.3% w
+1.36 G5 Boston +7 for 1.5% w
+2.27 G6 Boston -4 for 2.5% w

66.675 -59.5losses.
 
#36
Re: NBA for opening week

10/29
new orleans -5.5 for .7% l
Lakers -9 for .7% w
Minnesota -5 for .5% l
lakers -9.5 for .3% w
Spurs -2 for .7% l
OK City -2 for .7% l
NJ/Wash over 192.5 for .7% l
Rockets under 191 for .7% w
.5% on NY/Miami over 208 w
Miami/NY over 207.5 for .5% w
 
#37
Re: NBA for opening week

NY +7.5 for .6% already bet it :(
NY +8 for .5%
ML +275 for .3%
the public will most likely be all over NY, which is normally a bad, bad thing (especially on dogs)
But early in the year I don't really care who the public is on, if you look at past years fading the public in the early part of the season, no matter the sport is usually not a good idea. NYG-4, USC-10.5, etc. etc.

should move to 8 or maybe more, but I wouldn't sit on 8 for too long b/c 'they' may be setting up another move on 8 taking it down to 7/6.5 but hearing different stories.
 
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