Played over 9.5 k +420. The gift that keeps on giving.The Feces Bet came in before the 5th inning. The Feces Bet, of course, is betting whatever starting pitcher is facing the Cubs to go over their strikeout prop. For Cease, it was 7 1/2. Thru 5 innings he already has 10.
Played over 9.5 k +420. The gift that keeps on giving.
Before we heap too much praise on Tampa for scoring 31 runs over the 3 game series vs the Orioles, keep in mind that 22 of those runs were scored against a horrific dumpster fire of a bullpen for Baltimore. And the Giants took full advantage of the depleted Milwaukee pen the past 2 days. It was more opportunistic than an accomplishment.
It's not a surprise, he is an anti-vaxxer. There was some talk earlier in the season about Rizzo and Arrieta not complying.Yankee Anthony Rizzo has tested positive for Covid and will be quarantined for 10 days. Bad timing.
Peralta has faced the Cubs 3 times this season, 8, 8, and 10 K's. Played 8+ -120 and 12+ +700.The Feces Bet came in before the 5th inning. The Feces Bet, of course, is betting whatever starting pitcher is facing the Cubs to go over their strikeout prop. For Cease, it was 7 1/2. Thru 5 innings he already has 10.
Dodgers 4 games out of first place, yet still -225 to win division.
TB -125 last i checked at one out.
Sherwood likes Seattle -1.5 over Texas today. Writeup here:
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Sherwood likes Seattle -1.5 over Texas today. Writeup here:
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Yeah if I wanted to follow someone dumb enough to take a huge home favorite on the RL with a low total I'd just tail Jimmy.Another home team favorite laying a run and a half bites the dust. I guess it could've been worse. Seattle could've won by 1 which would've really screwed him over. I guess he saved a little juice. But yeah, unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.
Another home team favorite laying a run and a half bites the dust.
I guess it could've been worse. Seattle could've won by 1 which would've really screwed him over. I guess he saved a little juice.
But yeah, unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.
Yeah if I wanted to follow someone dumb enough to take a huge home favorite on the RL with a low total I'd just tail Jimmy.
So what. Plenty of home favs laying a run and a half win and cover.
It would have made no difference if Seattle had won by 1. It would have been a loss on his -1.5 -101 bet either way.
A one run win doesn't save "a little juice" compared to an outright loss. The amount lost is exactly the same either way.
General rules always have exceptions. Evidently, based on his writeup analysis, he considered it a plus EV bet.
Nobody has demonstrated anything wrong with said analysis.
Though a couple of guys are here critiquing a bet only after it lost. Would the same have been posted had it won.
8 is a low total? Today Houston as a huge -260 ML home fav covered -1.5 -135 with a 5-1 win. Total was only 1 run more, at 9.
Nobody asked anyone "to follow". I didn't even follow myself. My post was just a FYI.
Who's Jimmy. Does he post writeups with his picks. Is he a long term winner like Sherwood.
Jesus do I really need to explain this?
I’m jumping into this late, just got my power back. I know the price is factored into the home team -1.5. It’s just harder to win those when you get 8 innings of AB’s vs the road team’s 9. How many teams will trade a run for the out in the 9th? Personally if I play them, it’s never the home team laying 1.5.If you can.
As for the rest of your post, it has little if any relevance to my comments & is mostly just stating the obvious.
I certainly welcome critiques, but don't dish it out if you can't take it in return.
I’m jumping into this late, just got my power back. I know the price is factored into the home team -1.5. It’s just harder to win those when you get 8 innings of AB’s vs the road team’s 9. How many teams will trade a run for the out in the 9th? Personally if I play them, it’s never the home team laying 1.5.
SF rolled tonight to an easy RL cover (7-2 final) as a huge home fav of -281 ML (opened about -250) & -1.5 -133 RL (opened about a pk) & an opening total of 7.5 (Pinnacle, closed at 8).
If i like SF in this spot, as evidently many did from the line movement, I'd far rather not lay 2.5 to 1 or almost 3 to 1 on the ML, but instead take my chances with a pk or close to it on the RL.
SF rolled tonight to an easy RL cover (7-2 final) as a huge home fav of -281 ML (opened about -250) & -1.5 -133 RL (opened about a pk) & an opening total of 7.5 (Pinnacle, closed at 8).
If i like SF in this spot, as evidently many did from the line movement, I'd far rather not lay 2.5 to 1 or almost 3 to 1 on the ML, but instead take my chances with a pk or close to it on the RL.
So you are going to cite one game as an example? Who cares?
Another home team favorite laying a run and a half bites the dust. I guess it could've been worse. Seattle could've won by 1 which would've really screwed him over. I guess he saved a little juice. But yeah,unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.
Consider & meditate on that comment in light of a review & rereading of the whole conversation, especially what you said earlier:
"Generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a (road team)." True when I said it, and true now.
Another home team favorite laying a run and a half bites the dust. I guess it could've been worse. Seattle could've won by 1 which would've really screwed him over. I guess he saved a little juice. But yeah, unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.
Want to keep betting them? Go ahead. We'll see how that turns out.
Road team? Or did you mean home team? Can you provide any evidence in support of your theory quoted above & here:
"Another home team favorite laying a run and a half" doesn't "bite the dust" but was victorious yesterday with a nice juicy + 165 money price:
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I never said i'm betting them.
Yes I was referring to home teams.
I'm not going to do the research for you. We all have to do it ourselves. We can make several hypothesis that are general information: heavy favorites tend to draw significant public money. Heavy favorites do not tend to be big money makers in units won, even with strong win percentages. And teams are not incentivized to win by margin, so a win by 1 run is as valuable in the standings as one by a bigger margin. Up by 2 runs in the 9th inning, nobody is going to bring their infield in for a play at the plate, Finally, knowingly giving away over 10% of potential at bats is a steep hole to overcome. Yes, there are instances when they win. But a lot of minus 1.5 runs bettors act as if all wins are by margin, when it definitely is not the case. And as for the earlier point about total size, its very germane to the point. If a game is at Wrigley in April or May and the wind is blowing in and the total is 6 1/2 or 7, runs are at a premium. Managers manage differently, playing for one run. The chance of a one run final is bigger. Compare that to a game at Coors with a total of 12 or 13 where there will be plenty of scoring; the chance of a one run win is less.
Another home team favorite laying a run and a half bites the dust. I guess it could've been worse. Seattle could've won by 1 which would've really screwed him over. I guess he saved a little juice. But yeah, unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.
BTW, one advantage home teams laying -1.5 runs are getting this season is the runner on second rule in the bottom of the 10th. In the past in a tie game if the first batter homers the -1.5 run bet loses. But now it wins.Is that supposed to be a case in support of your notion stated here:
Surely you realize that oddsmakers are aware of the weather reports re games, the size of totals at Coors field & everything else you mentioned. And much more. And that is all baked into the price/odds. So, based on that, and until you know the price/odds on a game, how can anyone justify "unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.". I'd say, instead, until you know the price/odds and whether or not any price is +EV, it is generally not wise to make a serious bet of any kind. So how would you know that there aren't many home team run lines throughout a MLB season that are +EV bets, including many outside of Colorado?
BTW, one advantage home teams laying -1.5 runs are getting this season is the runner on second rule in the bottom of the 10th. In the past in a tie game if the first batter homers the -1.5 run bet loses. But now it wins.
Moreover, as i mentioned before, home teams have the home field advantage, whereas road teams have the away field disadvantage. Home teams generally win a lot more at home than away, while road teams usually lose more away than at home. So the chance of winning by 2 or more runs is increased at home relative to being on the road because of the greater chance of winning the game.
BTW, one advantage home teams laying -1.5 runs are getting this season is the runner on second rule in the bottom of the 10th. In the past in a tie game if the first batter homers the -1.5 run bet loses. But now it wins.
Seriously how dumb do you have to be to think this is an "advantage". In the same scenario a base hit now wins the game.
Can't make this shit up.
Actually a base hit in that scenario need not win the game. It would stand a very good chance of just putting another runner on base without winning the game. Or the runner on second could be thrown out at home, etc, so the game isn't won that way, either, with a base hit.
But - overall - the runner on 2nd rule may not be of any advantage to home teams laying -1.5 runs. The jury is still out on that. (Though certainly it is in the scenario where a homer is hit as i described it.) So i'll retract & delete my earlier statement.
OTOH with the runner on 2nd rule in the 10th, 11th, etc, i wonder if this may be an overall advantage to home teams laying -1.5 runs. The runner on 2nd means more runs will be scored. So the totals will be higher than without the rule. And if the theory that more runs scored/higher totals favors the -1.5 laying team is true, then might this new rule be favorable to home teams laying 1.5? I wonder how the results this year compare with previous years.
Could the crackdown on sticky stuff be another factor that favors home teams laying -1.5 runs?
I know the Blue Jays are a sexy team to bet right now, I mean what team with a lot of offense isn't? But man this line today seems way out of line. I'm locked in on some Seattle +152 and will take more if the line goes up further.
Is that supposed to be a case in support of your notion stated here:
Surely you realize that oddsmakers are aware of the weather reports re games, the size of totals at Coors field & everything else you mentioned. And much more. And that is all baked into the price/odds. So, based on that, and until you know the price/odds on a game, how can anyone justify "unless a game is in Colorado with a giant total, generally not wise to be laying a run and a half with a team not guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.". I'd say, instead, until you know the price/odds and whether or not any price is +EV, it is generally not wise to make a serious bet of any kind. So how would you know that there aren't many home team run lines throughout a MLB season that are +EV bets, including many outside of Colorado?
Moreover, as i mentioned before, home teams have the home field advantage, whereas road teams have the away field disadvantage. Home teams generally win a lot more at home than away, while road teams usually lose more away than at home. So the chance of winning by 2 or more runs is increased at home relative to being on the road because of the greater chance of winning the game.