2024 NFL

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Valuist

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Do these stiffs on ESPN even know how to judge a schedule? We already knew the opponents. Tonight is all about the sequencing of the games. Did anyone mention what teams have the most opponents off a bye? How many teams have 4 road games/5 weeks? Those were rhetorical questions.
 
Valuist said:
Do these stiffs on ESPN even know how to judge a schedule?
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No they don't, what they do is look at a teams opponents record last year as a way to determine how easy or hard this year's schedule is, of course the way to do it is to look at that team's win total of this year, there's so much turnover on these teams that what a team's record was last year isn't an indicator of what that team will be this year, their win total is a better way of evaluating a team than what their last year's record was, the only two people on ESPN who know what they're talking about is Orlovsky and Kimes
 
Chiefs have a brutal schedule, Ravens, Bengals, Niners, Bills, Browns, Texans, Steelers, and they have a stretch where they play 3 games in 10 days, not sure how that's even possible
 
Here's the Chargers schedule release. Pretty good although I think Davante Adams a little odd getting so bent out of shape over it. At least they didn't make him look gay, like Baker.

 
Looking at the Texans results last year, what a weak schedule. Only opponents I had rated above average were Baltimore & Cleveland. Cincy? Not with Burrow out. The AFC South was weak, as was the NFC South. They even lost to Carolina. Now bigger expectations and a tougher schedule.
 
kane said:
No they don't, what they do is look at a teams opponents record last year as a way to determine how easy or hard this year's schedule is, of course the way to do it is to look at that team's win total of this year, there's so much turnover on these teams that what a team's record was last year isn't an indicator of what that team will be this year, their win total is a better way of evaluating a team than what their last year's record was, the only two people on ESPN who know what they're talking about is Orlovsky and Kimes
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totally agree outside of injuries
 
Valuist said:
Looking at the Texans results last year, what a weak schedule. Only opponents I had rated above average were Baltimore & Cleveland. Cincy? Not with Burrow out. The AFC South was weak, as was the NFC South. They even lost to Carolina. Now bigger expectations and a tougher schedule.
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I stand corrected. Burrow did play in the Nov 12 game. But here's the list of other QBs they faced:

game 1: Lamar
game 2: combo of Richardson & Minshew
game 3: Lawrence
game 4: Pickett
game 5: Ridder
game 6: Carr
game 7: Bryce Young
game 8: Mayfield
game 9: Burrow
game 10 Murray
game 11 Lawrence
game 12: Russell Wilson
game 13: Zach Wilson
game 14: Levis
game 15: Flacco
game 16: Levis & Tannehill
game 17: Minshew

Not exactly Murderer's Row
 
Jordan Love 4 years $220m? I didn't expect that kind of money. He had a good 7 game run then a nice playoff win at Dallas. What about those games in the first half when he looked very inaccurate?
 
NFL Gets $4.7 Billion Sunday Ticket Jury Award Tossed Out
Judge determines verdict was ‘not supported by evidence’
Ruling is win for NFL, which faced possible triple damages
 
First prop: Jalen Hurts Under 9 1/2 rush TDs (+105). Jason Kelce retires and the Eagles add Saquon Barkley. I don't see them utilizing the tush-push as much at the goal line.
 
Valuist said:
First prop: Jalen Hurts Under 9 1/2 rush TDs (+105). Jason Kelce retires and the Eagles add Saquon Barkley. I don't see them utilizing the tush-push as much at the goal line.
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probably your biggest fan, and it may hit but I don't like it at all. last 3 seasons he had 15,13,10. Guy can score from anywhere on the field and the season is long. Looking forward as always to your razor sharp insight for the season. I have a few strong week 1 bets ready to cash and will post.
 
Valuist said:
First prop: Jalen Hurts Under 9 1/2 rush TDs (+105). Jason Kelce retires and the Eagles add Saquon Barkley. I don't see them utilizing the tush-push as much at the goal line.
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I hope it hits for you, but I honestly don't like it, the tush push is an indefensible play, and until the defense figures out a way to stop it, why wouldn't the Eagles keep using it, I get the Kelce retirement, but I'm sure whoever their new center is he'll know what to do
 
Steelers Under 8.5 -150
Patriots Under 5 -110
Panthers Over 5.5 +120
Buccs Under 8.5 +120
Cowboys Under 10.5 -150
Broncos Under 5.5 -120
Raiders Under 6.5 even
Ravens Under 11 -130
 
so far very little for me...I think I only have Bears to not make playoffs at around EV
and Ravens to score at least 1 rushing TD in all games...bet it at +800...2 weeks later in mid-july it was +1000 bet it again...went to maybe bet it again its now-125
 
Who knew the footballs have a chip inserted for the past year in anticipation of virtual measurements. Utilized today in Rams/Chargers. NFL is turning more and more into a video game.

Have to admit, quicker and don't miss the cumbersome chains being brought out.
 
kane said:
I hope it hits for you, but I honestly don't like it, the tush push is an indefensible play, and until the defense figures out a way to stop it, why wouldn't the Eagles keep using it, I get the Kelce retirement, but I'm sure whoever their new center is he'll know what to do
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The majority of Hurts short TD runs were on 3rd and 4th downs. A friend who's into really geeky analytics told me Swift led the league in runs where he was stopped inside the 1 yard line. Swap Swift out for Saquon, and the Eagles aren't getting to 3rd or 4th down because Barkley is scoring.

The second derivative props would be Barkley over his rush TDs and Swift, now a Bear, under his rush TDs.
 
I bet the Hurts UNDER prop as well. Declined every year for the last 3 seasons, Hurts is getting no younger.

Great run but these things have a shelf life, DC's probably fare much better this year I would guess.

And say what you will but that play is also rough on your QB, you see guys twisting his helmet backwards and taking all kinds of abuse.

Easy money. Line Barkley up back there if you want, no more Hurts please. :)

Speaking of easy money, UNDERS went 11-2 yesterday by my calculation. Line adjustment on totals next week?
 
Patrick McIrish said:
I bet the Hurts UNDER prop as well. Declined every year for the last 3 seasons, Hurts is getting no younger.

Great run but these things have a shelf life, DC's probably fare much better this year I would guess.

And say what you will but that play is also rough on your QB, you see guys twisting his helmet backwards and taking all kinds of abuse.

Easy money. Line Barkley up back there if you want, no more Hurts please. :)

Speaking of easy money, UNDERS went 11-2 yesterday by my calculation. Line adjustment on totals next week?
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Exactly right re: the beating the QB takes in those scenarios. I know Hurts has great leg strength. So does Nick Chubb, who was often seen squatting weight so heavy, the bar was bending. And we all saw what happened to Chubb last year.
 
Think Mahomes got dinged up as well. Not the official brotherly shove but a sneak.

If not mistaken that was the SB year where he lost to the Bucs on that gimpy ankle.

Others starting to do it, the efficiency level slipping, and of course injuries to QB always a major concern......

Part of being a great innovator is knowing when to get OFF something as well!! You want to be first, not last.

When I read your post I thought immediately this guy and his instincts are right on target. Still believe that.

I fully expect the Eagles to slowly move away from this and possibly on to something else like originators tend to do.

We will find out as the season goes, good discussion men. We move on.
 
Patrick McIrish said:
Great run but these things have a shelf life, DC's probably fare much better this year I would guess.
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I remember when the Dolphins busted out the wild cat on the Patriots, the look on the Hoodie's face was priceless, he didn't know what hit him, and other teams copied it with much success, but like you say, everything has a shelf life and eventually defenses figured out how to slow it down and stop it, you rarely see it anymore, but no one has figured out how to stop the tush push yet, when they do and it starts getting stopped, then the Eagles probably stop running it, but why would they stop using a play that has virtually a 100% success rate, and yeah Hurts gets hit a little, but it's not like a QB run where he's opening himself up to a big shot, all he does is take the snap, and surge forward, the contact he receives isn't much, and okay they have Barkley in the backfield, but unless he's getting a first down 100% of the time, why not use the play that keeps working, brings to mind the old phrase "If it ain't broken, don't fix it", I don't know if Hurts goes Over his TD prop, but I would be surprised if the Eagles don't utilize the tush push all season long, unless of course the defense figures it out and starts stopping it
 
kane said:
I remember when the Dolphins busted out the wild cat on the Patriots, the look on the Hoodie's face was priceless, he didn't know what hit him, and other teams copied it with much success, but like you say, everything has a shelf life and eventually defenses figured out how to slow it down and stop it, you rarely see it anymore, but no one has figured out how to stop the tush push yet, when they do and it starts getting stopped, then the Eagles probably stop running it, but why would they stop using a play that has virtually a 100% success rate, and yeah Hurts gets hit a little, but it's not like a QB run where he's opening himself up to a big shot, all he does is take the snap, and surge forward, the contact he receives isn't much, and okay they have Barkley in the backfield, but unless he's getting a first down 100% of the time, why not use the play that keeps working, brings to mind the old phrase "If it ain't broken, don't fix it", I don't know if Hurts goes Over his TD prop, but I would be surprised if the Eagles don't utilize the tush push all season long, unless of course the defense figures it out and starts stopping it
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If you have one of the top RBs and goal line backs in the league, and you are paying him a lot, why put your franchise QB at risk? Swift is decent but he's no Barkley. This is a clear RB upgrade.
 
San Francisco under 11 1/2 wins (Circa Illinois).

Someone in the league office doesn't like SF. They face FOUR opponents off a bye, and two more off a Thursday nighter. Thats over 1/3 of their opponents off 10 days or more rest.
 
kane said:
I remember when the Dolphins busted out the wild cat on the Patriots, the look on the Hoodie's face was priceless, he didn't know what hit him, and other teams copied it with much success, but like you say, everything has a shelf life and eventually defenses figured out how to slow it down and stop it, you rarely see it anymore, but no one has figured out how to stop the tush push yet, when they do and it starts getting stopped, then the Eagles probably stop running it, but why would they stop using a play that has virtually a 100% success rate, and yeah Hurts gets hit a little, but it's not like a QB run where he's opening himself up to a big shot, all he does is take the snap, and surge forward, the contact he receives isn't much, and okay they have Barkley in the backfield, but unless he's getting a first down 100% of the time, why not use the play that keeps working, brings to mind the old phrase "If it ain't broken, don't fix it", I don't know if Hurts goes Over his TD prop, but I would be surprised if the Eagles don't utilize the tush push all season long, unless of course the defense figures it out and starts stopping it
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It's just my gut feeling, Kane. You got a brand new center, the guy that is THE most important piece of the whole thing is gone.

You got Barkley now too, a guy who among other things you want to be effective in these short yardage situations.

And yes Hurts is another year older.

Can you imagine Philly fans if Hurts gets hurt running this thing early in the year?

WTF!!? Kelce is gone, we pay Barkley big money and you still get our 50 million dollar QB hurt for the year trying to replicate it with new personnel!!?

IMO they'd have a good point.

And I don't think it being a success means you have to use it redundantly. KC and other teams have trick plays that work great but you might only see it once or twice a season.

IMO that's probably where this is headed.

All that said this is just my gut! I could be dead wrong, admittedly.

If you were right on every word you said I would not even be a little bit surprised. It's not one of those things where I don't think I can be wrong.

To me it just makes sense to start moving away from it. As personnel changes so should how you attack your opponents.

To blindly keep running plays you used under different players and circumstances until they start to fail miserably is unnecessary.

I mean if you don't move away from it now, when? Just seems like a good time for something new if you want to stay ahead of the others.

Either way, after Value posted I started thinking about it and that's where my thought process ended up as well.......

For sure we could be wrong, just my gut more than anything. I'm on Arizona today, I can obviously swing and miss, LOL.

We move on.
 
Packers to cut down the nets +1800
Lions to cut down the nets +1200
Eagles to cut down the nets +1400
Jets to win the AFC +1100
Will eventually add a future on the Bengals
 
Patrick McIrish said:
You got a brand new center, the guy that is THE most important piece of the whole thing is gone.
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I don't follow the Eagles, but in the video clip I posted the two guys talking seem to think the new center is pretty good and it shouldn't affect the play

Patrick McIrish said:
Hurts is another year older.
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He's only 26, just entering his prime

Patrick McIrish said:
I mean if you don't move away from it now, when?
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I would move away from it when the defense starts stopping it or if Hurts gets injured

All I'm saying is if I had a play that had the success rate that this play has, I would use it as often as I could, what I would also do is at some point line up for the tush push, have Hurts fake going into the line, then drop back and hit a presumably wide open receiver
 
Fair enough.

And yes for sure if they keep using it I'd run some play fakes out of it as well.

I saw that being done a few times last year, worked great from what I remember.
 
Philly is a hard team for me to get a read on. The division is pretty soft, so is their defense. Big signings like Barkley don’t seem to work out in the NFL much. I thought Henry would have been a better signing, it would take a lot of unnecessary hits away from Hurts.
 
Patrick McIrish said:
I bet the Hurts UNDER prop as well. Declined every year for the last 3 seasons, Hurts is getting no younger.

Great run but these things have a shelf life, DC's probably fare much better this year I would guess.

And say what you will but that play is also rough on your QB, you see guys twisting his helmet backwards and taking all kinds of abuse.

Easy money. Line Barkley up back there if you want, no more Hurts please. :)

Speaking of easy money, UNDERS went 11-2 yesterday by my calculation. Line adjustment on totals next week?
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incorrect,, they have increased each of the last 3 years. 10,13,15. Barkley is a better GL back for sure , I don't think the eagles expect him to get injured running the tush push though. Hurts is 26, nothing is declining yet but I hope you and V cash the ticket.
 
Valuist said:
San Francisco under 11 1/2 wins (Circa Illinois).

Someone in the league office doesn't like SF. They face FOUR opponents off a bye, and two more off a Thursday nighter. Thats over 1/3 of their opponents off 10 days or more rest.
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This registers , not a futures guy but I like this.
 
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