365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

diogee

Verly isnt going anywhere
#42
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

Thanks for the fades...hope you have a thread for ncaa basketball totals this year. Cleaned up a couple years ago. 91023i2ndw;l
 
#45
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

Told you guys if he did this for real everyone would end up pretty happy.....now we just need to figure out if he's really doing it....not used to seeing overs from the man.....
 
#47
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

never play overs in hoops only foots and bases lol.................thanks mr finance...........ill go 0-5 next 5 and all will be back to normal donations
 
#58
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

Good Luck IPP....I've tried different browsers, different computers - doesn't matter - like a trip to the dentist sometimes....can't figure out why we're all still here...
 
#59
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

gentlemen, just imagine how sane and orderly your life would be without
knowing what to expect as you point your browser to eog.......
 
#65
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

I am so fuckin pissed at my local (fake) that I have to play these stupid bullshit lines. These two games are dogs everywhere and I am laying money. This team total, does anyone but my square ass play a team total at -140............is that even legal??

NYY -105 (criminal)
CLE -105 (ass raped without lube)
NYY TM Total over 4 -140 (-140 what is this shawshank)
 
#66
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

7-1, +6.28........ah the streak ends tonight. I'm such a junkie and played into terrible lines........smells like shit........my one out is eating steak tonight
 
#67
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

I am so fuckin pissed at my local (fake) that I have to play these stupid bullshit lines. These two games are dogs everywhere and I am laying money. This team total, does anyone but my square ass play a team total at -140............is that even legal??

NYY -105 (criminal)
CLE -105 (ass raped without lube)
NYY TM Total over 4 -140 (-140 what is this shawshank)
ha ha we might have the same local, 30 cent lines
 
#70
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

LOL - as I post this it finally let me log on but all of the posts are condensed to the left of the page....how hard can this be? None of the other forums are ever down for more than 30 minutes and there's never this constant posting problem...Jeez...In the even that this actually finds it's way on the board - LOL - congrats on the miracle push with the team total...I was already on Cleveland so your Yanks play helped me make up for that one and end the day positive.....keep 'em coming (assuming you can post 'em)....
 
#71
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

yeah its bad bernie and finance.........miracle push on yanks total yesterday was offset by losing a 1-0 game.....but hey thats baseball.

8-2, +6.23

today I was torn, lots of games on the verge of making it into my fake locals pocket......i'm going lean with some bumrape lines

cle +105
cin -185.....only idiots would play this game at this line.......that's me
 
#72
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

Since I find myself with a few minutes it's always a good time to reflect. I know most of you know me as IPP the idiot. I come to these forums to blow off some steam and to be an idiot. Have a few pops, talk some trash and get some people ticked off. I think its fun sometimes to be someone your not. The few people who got to know me a little off the forums would probably tell you i'm still an idiot but a pretty good dude. The one person I got to know really well off the forums would probably tell you i'm definitely an idiot but an idiot who would do anything for a friend. Sooooooooo I thought I would come into my little thread here and make a serious post for a change.

The start of interleague play is when I have my first sit down with myself to go over my information in depth. I look at all my spreadsheets, see where I am at, and plan a strategy for the next portion of the season. I gotta be honest and say that to me baseball is the toughest sport to beat. I've been doing this a little while and I keep thinking about the length of the season, the travel, the outside distractions for guys with a lot of money and fame. Baseball players have fuck off days. Late night partying, banging groupies, hangovers, day games after long nights out, etc. It's a tough sport to wrap your head around. I may get off track here and writing isn't my thing so rambling is to be expected from here on out.

A little about what I do in my baseball handicapping and how I approach things. I have a lot of info I look at and pound into spreadsheets. I know guys who use services for their data (info services not pick services). I know guys who won't bet anything but dogs in baseball. I know guys who bet strictly based on perceived value. Then you have trend guys, or umpire guys, or people who toss it all in a bowl and spit out the best plays they can find. I've had debates with myself on whether or not to play more games, or should I focus on the one or two best plays on the board every day and bet them for more. You know what I have learned about all this information and internal debates over the years. If you second guess what you are doing or what your aproach is going to be......your dead in the water. You have zero chance of winning if you don't believe in your approach. Confidence in sports investing is like confidence in every day life. A guy who has no confidence in a bar isn't getting any tail, and a guy with no confidence in sports investing will have an empty wallet. It took me a long time to find my groove and to believe in how I go about things. It makes it so much easier to live with bad results when you believe you made the right bet. Trust me I lose a TON of wagers every year and i'm fine with it. I am fine with it because I ask myself one really simple question each and every time I hit the submit button to make a wager. I ask myself "if this wager loses would I make the same bet again". If I can't answer yes then it's the wrong bet for me.

So every day my routine is the same. I log my results, update my spreadsheets, and I look over every game to see if it played out like I thought it would. I'll look at the box score and compare it to my sheets and say yup that's exactly how that game should have went. Others I say man that was so not how that should have went. I'll look at how a line opened and moved, where did it end, was there any correlation to the line move and what my data showed. Why did a team fold like a cheap suit when they should have dominated.

This leads me to some things I like to factor into my information. Lets face it we could all go nuts if we tried to analyze everything. Just isn't enough time in the day to look at it all. This goes back to my approach....what are my goals, how much time do I have, where do I want to focus my efforts. Some of the things I focus on in baseball in no particular order are:

BB/K ratio - this goes for starters and pen. Who do I think may end up pitching in this game in certain situations, what can I expect out of them, how many cheap runners may end up on base. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to compare Halladay to a Scott Kazmir type pitcher

WHIP - pretty self explanatory we don't want a high ratio type number

FIP - use this quite extensively to get a better understanding of your starter. I don't buy into just looking at a guys ERA it is so nondescriptive of what you might get that day if that makes sense. If you don't use FIP I highly recommend adding it.

Obviously lineup info is key. Who's sitting, who's playing, how do they fare against the starters and likely BP that day.

How did the previous game end, was it a long game, did the pen get worked to death, is there an early start the next day

I like to look at strand rates and is there any vulnerability there......is it likely to stay at the current level

ground ball, fly ball ratios......sometimes you can get away with different variances in different parks

I prefer GPA over OPS

Crap running out of time.....

I try and use a lot of the common stuff most people look at but I have my own style of where its going to fit into my sheets. I try and project the innings I can expect out that days starters, pitch levels, run differentials, can I get to the teams pen. I got some fun stuff I use in my sheets that do all kinds of crap.........do I need it probably not but it helps me try get a feel for the days games.

I won't pigeonhole myself into playing only dogs. I'll lay the wood on a team if my sheets say I have a very high probability of winning that same matchup a certain number of times. I'm not laying -200 just for the fuck of it.

It's no secret sports is hard to win at, and we all know everyone on forums is a winning gambler just ask em. I just think if you can limit the mistakes, find an approach that you have time to manage, and try and interpret why a game went the way it is you'll be better off.

I could ramble on forever about other stuff I use but try and get familiar with stats you may not have heard of. Go to a site like hardballtimes.com and maybe try some stuff you haven't used to get a better feel for the matchup. My dog knows matchups are key so look at them. The fun part about baseball to me is you could have the perfect game on paper, no way team A should lose.......and they get crushed. Take chances on a play here and there, find some good value spots, peek at a few trends.

There are some really good gamblers on forums who take it serious go read some of what makes them tick. Guys like IrishTim who knows math inside and out..........even if it doesn't make sense try and find why they do some things they do. Listen to guys who talk about their models, etc. Someone like Buffett and his style makes you look at your games and go damn didn't think of that. Whether you like a poster or not shouldn't rule out the fact he may have something valid to bring to the table. Most winners aren't going to take the time to tell you how they do it and could care less about getting credit on sites from a bunch of doorknobs. Lets face it chasing lines is time consuming, trying to figure out the best spot to jump in, do you wanna buy back a portion of your position, do you want to add more. How important is getting the best line in baseball when lines move like a dude on Meth.....it will make or break your season believe it. Know your ROI, track your wagers and bets against the closing number. Beat the line move. Start a simple spreadsheet to see where your money is going and where you made mistakes. If you make an error or a bad bet but don't remember why or how come you made that mistake you're probably going to make it again. I can look through my logs and tell you last year where I fucked up during football season. I can look at my note and say yup not a good position to be in and reading why I fucked up helps me see that same situation again and I can make a better decision.

I didn't get into a lot of the statistical stuff because im a rambling idiot and out of time.

Go read and research and ask yourself my one key question from earlier and you will save yourself a lot of grief.

Did I mention I never beat interleague play...........hmmm

Ok ladies cash some tickets.....find a way.......and in the words of that puss pocket Jose Lima......."believe it"

Gotta be noon somewhere, where is my friggin beer hat.........scramble eggs bitches

Seacrest out
 
#76
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

two quick things

1.) someone hacked my account again obviously that was not me
2.) I haven't had a hangover since 1991

so since I can't beat interleague play ever I have tried a different strategy this year......I have bunkered down at the Disney Yacht Club in beautiful Orlando Florida. As of this post I am sitting on the deck of my second story plush room, over looking the lake facing the ESPN zone.

I have looked at every game so much today my head is well empty as usual.

I was reflecting on my good friend, turned enemy Travis today. I know I shouldn't have taken his watch but I was on the bad end of a chaser system and needed coin.......

Ok so what strategy is not going to work for me this year.......

Why would anyone in their right state of mind lay money on Bal today

Cin/Cle very interesting matchup....this almost has the feel of toss every logical angle out the window and just play the better team......in my opinion that is Cincy

Tex/Phil I cannot back back Wilson in this spot. I like the Phil pen much better, we know what we should get out of Roy, but its def not on my play list anywhere.......I just can't take the dog here

Cubs/Bos you have what I believe is still the most undervalued team in baseball in boston although they have come around from their start. When I say undervalued we know there will always be line bias with them.....im speaking in terms of pure value. The pen is not where I expected it to be but lets face it they win this matchup enough times to play it if you are daring. I thought the line may open around 205, not even close....

Dod/Wsox is the battle of the women's softball league. I thought the opener would go south but it has gone north, makes the dog attractive here with a game that will prob be decided by a run.

Min/Az is one of the more intriguing games for me today. I think Kennedy is inflated today in the line but is today the day backs up a tad......sheets say play AZ and hope he comes back to earth next week.....line swing says a lot here.....I think the line move may be wrong

Atl/Ang can't peg either team thus far for the life of me, i'll take the better starter and better pen imo

Col/Mil not sold on Zach hitting potential form yet, market not sure either...id lean dog against an underachieving Mil team today

Subway series has doggie written all over it

Det/pit - better pen I think gets it done.......i'd go doggie

Hou/Tor is my fave play of the day need I say more

TB/Fla I know the flavor will be the rays getting some coin on the backside but i don't buy it. I live in the back yard and have seen enough of AS to make me puke.......that said he prob goes 7 solid and they win 3-2........I can't play the dog here

STL/KC is another cin/cle type game where I see traditional valuations going bye bye.......give me the scrappy dog for more reasons than I have time to list

Sea/SD is an intriguing game to me. Neither could score a run or me starting and JK in relief. Market has same feeling......think you gotta go with the better arms and hope you win 4-3 in a real scorefest for these jerkoffs

oak/sf is a game I can't stay far enough away from.......just play the over and get it over with

obviously time constraints and not meant to be anything but some thoughts on today's slate........hate this interleague bullshiz

on another note if anyone is in town, close by, and wants to grab a beer at the ESPN zone give me a yell........im always looking for a free tab to attach myself too

ill be back in a few with the best fades this guy can spit out.....
 
#78
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

well if im going in the red might as well go deep

tor -195
pit -108
cin -112
nym +168
was +125
fla -168
az -180

if you find worse lines than this call my local
 
#79
Re: 365 plays in 365 days......IPP style

shockingly good day yesterday and with a few breaks late could have been a sweep......here are three plays, with absolutely terrible lines that should get me back to reality today

tor O7.5 -120
was O8.5 -105
min -112

I also think if you played the Dodgers and Was there would be a good chance of turning a profit between those two wagers

just about an hour to go til the Bolts game 4.....if they lose today I can rip up my Bolts to win the cup ticket. Local gave me a total on tall beers at the ESPN Zone and I wagers over 19 +105.......lots of value here.

lets rip up some tickets today
 
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