Breeders' Cup 2019

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#47
Question for Chitown Joe or anyone. Is there any bias on SA 5f turf course? Closers or speed? Inside post or outside.
not sure on Turf but main track the rail 1 hole has NOT been good. horses like COVFEFE and PARADISE WOODS on Saturday are two top super horses that got bad draws imo for Dirt.

short turf sprints BC races are almost never won by 12-14 posts I think its something like 2 in 60 or something.
 
#48
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
 
#49
not sure on Turf but main track the rail 1 hole has NOT been good. horses like COVFEFE and PARADISE WOODS on Saturday are two top super horses that got bad draws imo for Dirt.

short turf sprints BC races are almost never won by 12-14 posts I think its something like 2 in 60 or something.
Covfefe got the worst possible post position. Not only the rail, but two fast horses on her outside? I know she’s had some amazing performances so far, but she’s gonna have to go wayyy too fast early to clear the field, or will have to shuffle back and come form behind, which is out of her element. If she wins, she’s a super horse, but I like Dawn the Destroyse and Spiced Perfection. Come Dancing will likely also have to come from fatether back than she ever has... not sure what to do with her either.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#52
Id like to bet 1 of the days gets canceled by bad air quality from fire at +1200

fun fact. no horse Fri or Saztruday has Smoke in name

only one has" Smoke" in the breeding pedigree

Race 1 on Friday the Marathon (which used to be a Breeders cup race but now just a nice race on the card). so bet that one Railbird might get about 12-1 actually

ZESTFUL (L)
Ch.g.4 Ghostzapper-Sweet Relish
Ch.g.4 Ghostzapper-by Smoke Glacken

but your big play Race 8 Satruday in the Sprint
FIRENZE FIRE (L) 12-1 Morning line also
 
#53
SA 5F firm Turf Nov 02 2018 - Oct 27 2019 Non-Maidens Only
31% wire to wire
69% sitting top 3 at first call
58% the 2 inside post positions
15% the 2 most outside post positions
 
#54
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
i heard that the 2 yo bc races friday have a phenomenal win rate for local horses........
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#55
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
dont do that you will not have much action!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#59
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
Two-year-olds are always tricky.

I sometimes get fooled by hype surrounding the next super horse.

Runaway victories look good on paper but I've learned young horses benefit from the education of a stretch duel.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#67
Well, Santa Anita and the whole industry better hope that there are no breakdowns this weekend. It would be a disaster.


No doubt, BP2.

The industry dodged a bullet at the Kentucky Derby when Maximum Security and jock Luis Saez played bumper cars at the head of the stretch.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#71
I have a feeling John Sadler is going to have a big weekend. He's not as high profile as a Baffert or Brown or O'Neil but he is very good at SA and Dmr.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#74
here are the BX and BO on friday

Friday Nov 01 2019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13:20 SA-02 #11 Tiger S 8/1
13:55 SA-03 #10 Warm Su 15/1
14:32 SA-04 #6 Totally 20/1
14:32 SA-04 #8 Great U 8/1
14:32 SA-04 #10 Rookie 12/1
15:12 SA-05 #6 Alligat 12/1
15:52 SA-06 #8 Billy B 20/1
17:12 SA-08 #10 Fair Ma 12/1
18:03 SA-09 #4 Storm t 20/1

Do you have the Saturday blinker change info handy?>
 
#75
Saturday Nov 02 2019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:42 SA-02 #3 Roadste 7/5
13:17 SA-03 #12 Real Ma 50/1
13:17 SA-03 #9 Kingly 5/1
17:20 SA-09 #9 Circus *3/1
19:44 SA-12 #4 War of 20/1
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#78
LOL they are hyping the 10% track takeout on the head to head. they "forget" the dime breakage taking an extra 40% - 50% of the profit on USA from what it should be
 
#80
I bet the rail...had hope turning for home.....did get some place money and some head to head posted in BB thread...lost to the faster horse
 
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