Re: CAA Basketball Plays
2nd half bets hurt yesterday being a good day. Don't know what happened to VCU in the 2nd half, but they couldn't run a half court set to save their lives against Mason.
CAA tourney: -4.4 units, 5-9
Overall: +9.7 units, 38-33
Yeah, I am not 100% sure Jammer. 3 keys to deciding who wins:
1) FT shooting: Drexel has been great from the FT in their 2 games (80%), VCU not as much (~55%).
2) Tempo: from watching the VCU Mason game last night, VCU was great if they could get out in transition and take shots 10 seconds into the shot clock (how VCU played the 1st half, mostly the 1st 10 minutes). However, if you slow VCU down and make them play half-court sets, they are far worse on offense (the reason why Mason got back in it- they stopped turning the ball over and forced VCU to run half court sets).
3) For Drexel, how many Turnovers and points of turnovers (more important) they allow. If they commit 15 or fewer turnover and allow 12 points or less off turnovers, I think they will win this game. Drexel handles the press well (beat ODU's press rather easily), with their big men (especially Givens) able to both handle and pass the ball well for a big man.
From watching the Drexel game yesterday, they have been playing very well on defense. They essentially shut down Bazemore, who had just been on fire shooting the past 3 weeks. Although VCU is going to have a huge advantage in fans, I know ODU travels well also and have a good crowd for the CAA tourney, which Drexel adjusted to well.
I think the line might grow to 3 for VCU, so I am going to wait before I bet Drexel to cover. I really like the way Drexel has been playing defense at the CAA tourney (and all year for that matter). Drexel should have the advantage on the boards, especially with how well Givens and McCoy attacked the glass for O-boards against ODU (a very tough team to outrebound).
However if do think the total is a tad too low, especially for a game I believe will be decided within the last couple of minutes, which should add FTs to help get over the over/under line.
So, for now, I have 1 play:
Drexel vs. VCU OVER 118 (1 unit)