Coronavirus Dashboard

#3
This keeps pretty good updated data:

https://ncov2019.live/data

Two days ago, the number was about 196,000. Yesterday 253,000, and so far today, about 290,000.

New York jumped by 51% in 1 day.

The way this thing is starting to take off is scary.
Data is just data, but there is no context on this. Is it jumping because people are finally getting reliable test results or is it a true surge in people showing symptoms and being sick? The death count, while not something to diminish in any way, still remains at 1% of reported cases and the fact that there isn't a good sense of how many people really have it now makes the mortality rate really uncertain. To date, it doesn't seem yet there is widespread lack of resources to tackle it at this point, but certainly that could change. That's what really needs to be looked at and we don't get any reasonable reporting on that. Yes health professionals are taxed and wearing thin from the case load, but is it at a point where it is in Italy where many who might be saved can't be due to resource issues?

I'm trying to be in the middle of this because like everything these days its all extremes. Some want to think the world is going to end while others ignore it and go to the beach. Some think there are signs of hope here and there, while others think its completely irresponsible to report on hope. I mean that's the fucked up part of this all. Instead of just letting the health pros do the talking and be reasonable about it, we have so many who have no business talking trying to be experts and then the health pros who do talk get alarmed by the bad info out there and decide the only way is to become wildly pessimistic to keep people in line and taking precautions.

What a messed up world we got ourselves into with the politicization of everything.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#7
What will be interesting is what happens once it sweeps thru the US, thus making a complete trip around the world. Does it die off?
 
#14
"Not only am I going to California, Joe Biden. I'm going to New York! I'm going to New Jersey! I'm going to Lousiana! I'm going to Arizona! I'm going to New Mexico! I'm going to Minnesoda! I'm going to Illinois! I'm going to North Carolina! I'm going to South Carolina! I'm going to Georgia! I'm going to Mississippi! I'm going to Alabama! I'm going to Oregon! I'm going to Colorado! And MICHIGAN! And then I'm going to Washington DC to take out the White House! YAAAAAAAA!"
 
#23
It looks like right now that by next Friday is gonna be 2000 death per day. And 3000 in two weeks.

He WILL order a national shutdown. I am 90 percent certain
How would shutting down north and south dakota help anything? Please. explain your logic?

There is no linkage between real bad here, means someone over there should commit economic suicide. The latter does nothing to help the former.
 
#25
I didnt say I was advocating anything, I was simply predicting Trump's action

I am just saying that I believe he will.
He was asked again today and today was prob his strongest no. Now will those govs cave, they may, especially if a couple others do.

The other factor is it's too late, the peak is 2 weeks away, no reason to now, it wouldn't accomplish anything.

i expect on may 1, trump will announce the rolling process of taking off the restrictions - with those states that never shut down being the first to relax.
 
#28
at 3K deaths per day it will be a hard sell to the public, that the worst is behind us already.
There's nothing to sell, it is what it is, we're at 1300 today and i have no doubt next friday it'll be well into the 2's. Once deaths start dropping 2-3 weeks from now(hopefully), people will start to realize the worst is behind us.
 

bishqqq

EOG Addicted
#29
here in Ohio, officials reacted a lil quiker than Michigan & other states. So this has pushed our nightmare to middle of May. Not sure how ugly things get here. The hospitals & the Ohio national guard are setting up tents in hospital parking lots. What scares me the most is how calm everyone is.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#30
here in Ohio, officials reacted a lil quiker than Michigan & other states. So this has pushed our nightmare to middle of May. Not sure how ugly things get here. The hospitals & the Ohio national guard are setting up tents in hospital parking lots. What scares me the most is how calm everyone is.
I was thinking the same thing here in Michigan, referring to the calmness. I don’t know if people are just resigned to their fate or what. The stores here are getting pretty low.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#31
here in Ohio, officials reacted a lil quiker than Michigan & other states. So this has pushed our nightmare to middle of May. Not sure how ugly things get here. The hospitals & the Ohio national guard are setting up tents in hospital parking lots. What scares me the most is how calm everyone is.
They did react quicker. Pretty much in lockstep with Illinois, but there's no cities here with 3 million or metro areas of 7 million.
 
#32
The problem with projecting deaths to eternity is it acts like people who are dying now just got it. But that isn't how it works, most dying now got it before March 15th when there were few restrictions out there. Since then, whether ordered to stay home or not, people did change behaviors, many people did start limiting their exposure to the outside world somewhat and interactions between those who don't live together have decreased. Even if the last governors to act didn't put out orders until recently, it doesn't mean that large portions of the population weren't already taking heed to the warnings.
 
#33
at 3K deaths per day it will be a hard sell to the public, that the worst is behind us already.
So Pete, just wanting to look at the numbers logically here. We are at about 1,000 deaths per day. When do you think it hits 3k? Why if NYC seems to be stabilizing? I just don't see it myself. To me the 200k deaths in the US looks like at earliest an end of the year number, yet everyone including Trump is telling people its going to happen without giving a timeline. When would you predict we'll see 200k deaths in the US?

Feels very strategic to me, scare people into taking the lockdown and social distancing seriously. If Trump said you know we'll have 200k dead by the end of next year people would just brush it off. To say 200k dead and act like it could happen by next week then people are scared shitless and might stay at home for the last 4 weeks of the month.
 
#34
The peak is supposed to be around april 15th nationally, april 10th for NY. If we dont hit the expected 2500-3000 in the next 2 weeks we likely wont. we should have 1K+ a day dying going into may, maybe a few hundred leaving may, by mid june it should be almost over, according to projections.
 
#35
So Pete, just wanting to look at the numbers logically here. We are at about 1,000 deaths per day. When do you think it hits 3k? Why if NYC seems to be stabilizing? I just don't see it myself. To me the 200k deaths in the US looks like at earliest an end of the year number, yet everyone including Trump is telling people its going to happen without giving a timeline. When would you predict we'll see 200k deaths in the US?

Feels very strategic to me, scare people into taking the lockdown and social distancing seriously. If Trump said you know we'll have 200k dead by the end of next year people would just brush it off. To say 200k dead and act like it could happen by next week then people are scared shitless and might stay at home for the last 4 weeks of the month.
I have no idea how long the number of cases will rise.
But I think we can project numbers two weeks ahead

Since death's are a lagging indicator --- it takes while for "new cases" to reach the final stage.

Say there is a week of lag time.

On (last) Tuesday there were 24,742 new cases and 4576 critical ones and 748 deaths

Yesterday there 34,196 new cases, 8202 critical cases with like 1300 deaths.

For like the last week, new cases increased 10% compounding rate per day.

So my unofficial guess is 2K, by next Friday and 3K the one after that-- rate of increase is slowing down a bit

How it goes after that, I dont know
 
#36
I have no idea how long the number of cases will rise.
But I think we can project numbers two weeks ahead

Since death's are a lagging indicator --- it takes while for "new cases" to reach the final stage.

Say there is a week of lag time.

On (last) Tuesday there were 24,742 new cases and 4576 critical ones and 748 deaths

Yesterday there 34,196 new cases, 8202 critical cases with like 1300 deaths.

For like the last week, new cases increased 10% compounding rate per day.

So my unofficial guess is 2K, by next Friday and 3K the one after that-- rate of increase is slowing down a bit

How it goes after that, I dont know
Fair answer, certainly seems true that the deaths hit last. I'm just trying to see a way this gets to even 100,000 if NYC is indeed stabilizing at around 500 deaths right now and then potentially goes down in a weeks time. Certainly could be some later surge in Florida or Texas, but despite late actions by the governors I don't really think people in general in those states were acting like nothing was going on and living life as normal.

So while there could be another state which looks like NY in terms of compounding growth, I'm starting to think its not that likely. Plus this all assumes no one has learned anything from all the places where there has been compounding outbreaks and that doctors and the medical profession in general haven't figured out some best practices that can reduce its impact on the hospitalized at least a little bit.
 
#37
And as far as New York reaching the APEX (death count-wise)

I am gonna have to go with the no on that one, cause their numbers were increasing the same like everyone else.
 
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