Fezzik GOY Part III
- Thread starter Heim
- Start date
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Did he drop Houston-2500 and uconn -4200 on his clients or just bet it himself?
Asking a rec to bet 67% of their roll on 2 games might be the end of fezz if this doesn't hit.
Asking a rec to bet 67% of their roll on 2 games might be the end of fezz if this doesn't hit.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Who am I kidding
Fezz is never going to stop selling huge ML favs
Fezz is never going to stop selling huge ML favs
Its my understanding that it is a rolling net profit criterion from the month after you start. Its based on a client betting $200 per unit, so +5u breaks even with the $1k monthly charge.
E.g. Pay $1k, first Month (1) profit is -8u, you don't pay. Month 2 is +6u, Net is -2u, you don't pay, Month 3 is +6u, Net is +4u, you still don't pay, Month 4 is +6u, Net is +10u so you pay $1k for Month 5, Total paid $2k, Profit thru Month 4 is $200/unit*10u = $2k.
E.g. Pay $1k, first Month (1) profit is +8u, you pay $1k, Month 2 is +6u, Net is +14u, you pay, Month 3 is +3u, Net is +17u, you pay, Month 4 is -3u, Net is +14u so you don't pay for Month 5. Total paid $3k, Profit thru Month 4 is $200/unit*14u = $2.8k.
Formula for paying in a month is: Net Profit Units >= "Months already paid" * 5 Units
boston massacre
EOG Master
Why Do People Care About Units ?
I Would Only Be Concerned About W/L Record.
What's The Difference in Betting a 1 Unit Play and a 5 Unit Play ?
Does The Tout Believe a 5 Unit Play Has a Much Better Chance at Winning Than a 1 Unit Play ? So They Want You To Play More
Money on The 5 Unit Play Than The 1 Unit Play ?
If So , Then You Could Give Out 20 / 1 Unit Plays , They All Could Win , And You Could Give Out 5 / 5 Unit Plays, And They
Could All Lose.
You Would Then Have a W/L Record of 20 -5 , And End Up Losing Money , Because You're - Units.
Makes No Sense.
We're at an interesting inflection point in the Fezzik BLAP saga, very close to breakeven bet of $200.
It all started on Jan 10, 2013, with initial tracking only by pregame,com personnel (Johnny Detroit, Fezzik himself, et al).
Record to Date (skipped 2 months of zero activity due to COVID-19):
133 months of which 55 months had profit +5u or greater, Amt fees paid: $78k, breakeven bet $196.70. Total amount bet @ $200 per unit: $3,238,504.
For those curious, record since I began tracking (August, 2015):
102 months of which 41 months had profit +5u or greater, Amt fees paid: $40k, breakeven bet $208.92.
It all started on Jan 10, 2013, with initial tracking only by pregame,com personnel (Johnny Detroit, Fezzik himself, et al).
Record to Date (skipped 2 months of zero activity due to COVID-19):
133 months of which 55 months had profit +5u or greater, Amt fees paid: $78k, breakeven bet $196.70. Total amount bet @ $200 per unit: $3,238,504.
For those curious, record since I began tracking (August, 2015):
102 months of which 41 months had profit +5u or greater, Amt fees paid: $40k, breakeven bet $208.92.
I should note that the bigger the breakeven bet that is required, the worse the performance.
Also, if you were betting $5,000 per unit from inception, your subscription cost would be the same, $78k, so your Roi is 1.13% for a net profit of $917,300, while risking about $81M.
Also, if you were betting $5,000 per unit from inception, your subscription cost would be the same, $78k, so your Roi is 1.13% for a net profit of $917,300, while risking about $81M.
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
I know what not to do with my next 81 million.
That kind of ROI you're better off searching Walmart parking lots for abandoned purses.
That kind of ROI you're better off searching Walmart parking lots for abandoned purses.
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
A $100 bettor lost -$2,152 last week
A $100 bettor is down -$220 on the week
2* Howard 1H Under 59.5 LOSS Finally won a game with viginia under fh now down -20 for week
A $100 bettor is down -$220 on the week
2* Howard 1H Under 59.5 LOSS Finally won a game with viginia under fh now down -20 for week
Last edited:
Heim
EOG Master
joey
@joeybetsbeisbol
Follow
Bluehorseshoe loves 0-3 card tonight
The Twitter replies to Fezzik are hilarious. Pregame must delete most negative comments. Very few there.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Facts
3/19/24 Tuesday (3/19/24 4:33am) Wagner/Howard 1H UNDER 59.5 [38-27] CBB 2 L -2.2
3/19/24 Tuesday (3/19/24 4:36am) Colorado St/Virginia 1H UNDER 56 [27-14] CBB 2 W 2
YTD -28.52u
If fezz feels bad he just needs to appear on the vsin sharp money show to feel better.
Not sure who stokes Steve off harder than host Patrick.
Soft hands
3/19/24 Tuesday (3/19/24 4:33am) Wagner/Howard 1H UNDER 59.5 [38-27] CBB 2 L -2.2
3/19/24 Tuesday (3/19/24 4:36am) Colorado St/Virginia 1H UNDER 56 [27-14] CBB 2 W 2
YTD -28.52u
If fezz feels bad he just needs to appear on the vsin sharp money show to feel better.
Not sure who stokes Steve off harder than host Patrick.
Soft hands
Heim
EOG Master
Softball questions no matter what media he's on. He says runline on mlb when -200+ without any reasonable empirical evidence to back it up. But I get it, if you want to continue to have him on it has to be like this otherwise face a sarcastic backlash like he did with South Point.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Well to the guys hosting him why not ask him "why the runline? The mL is cheap compared to -4200?"
kane
EOG master
What a great way to inflate your record, just take gigantic ML chalk
Heim
EOG Master
When Davidson was in the Southern Conference I made some crazy ML bets on them from 500-700 in the conference tourney. There was a point of reference, regular season and ML were off because of neutral court.
Fezzik just blindly posts this shit, unfamiliar matchups, neutral venue, different styles and claims value because he got in at a good price. It's idiotic, as Purdue proved last year. It's his last gasp to show he's relevant this time of year.
It's ego filled, not value filled.
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
A $100 bettor lost -$2,152 last week
A $100 bettor is down -$40 on the week
2* S.Carolina -1
2* Drake -1.5
A $100 bettor is down -$40 on the week
2* S.Carolina -1
2* Drake -1.5
boston massacre
EOG Master
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Fezz on the hammer hq yoitube channel with Brad Powers and Joey knish sweating out his #1 seed mL bets
texaswizzard
EOG Dedicated
Whoever Fezzik is lifting these college basketball games from, he should ask for a $100.00 Costco gift card so he feed his family. Most of these CBB games in 2024 have been wire to wire losers. Maybe WNBA will be his calling card this year. Lol
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
I think the BLAP whales would be very happy with an ROI of 1%. That's comparable to the edge a blackjack counter has over the house.
Heim
EOG Master
In order for ROI to have any meaning here you have to assume Fezzik has some customer retention. Who's buying and/or betting his CBB??
texaswizzard
EOG Dedicated
Andy - Your brother is a good contest player, nothing more. He has no edge betting sides or totals long term or any edge in any sport. I listened to a show he was on last week and he couldn't even get within 4 points of making a number on a game. It was sad to see a so called expert and self proclaimed winner not know what a line would be between two top teams if they met in the 2nd round. There is a 1% edge on numbers most people can't attain and on many bets the limits are low so in reality the ROI is -1% to -2%. We've been trying to find a BLAP member for 4-5 years on many forums without any success. Even RJ stopped talking about the mythical club. This mythical BLAP membership is like the sports handicappers that have the $25,000.00 fixed game diamond club. Quit while your ahead!
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
Looks like Fezz lost some juice today after stealing 2 units on big favs. I say steal because who has $100,000 in their sportsbook acount. It's not like most books had the value price. Did he make a good bet,for himself, probably, and more importantly creates attention. For most, to big a risk with little reward. (remember depaul vs vill took a parlay of a stop, 3 pointer stop, to avoid a big loss)
Heim
EOG Master
Fezzik wants to be relevant this time of year with his idiotic 99 percent plays. He can't pick a side to save his life, now he has everyone's attention on a #1 versus a #16 seed MLs. And to make matters worse he includes it in his unit total. Where was the Purdue loss last season in his record? No where to be found just a bunch of excuses on social media why it lost.
Embarrassing!
Embarrassing!
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
Fezz with 3 big favs today. Using lines from pinn and exchanges to get good #'s. Most don't have pinn and exchanges,I wish I could.
Heim
EOG Master
lol at UGA +9 at 11:27 this morning.
If his picks were a basketball player they'd be called for a moving screen every time.
texaswizzard
EOG Dedicated
Fezzik found a local bookmaker with the "outlaw line".
texaswizzard
EOG Dedicated
Fezzik goes on these radio shows before March Madness and says only bet no more than 4-5% of your bankroll on any one play then in one days says bet 2- -5000 plays which were even more than that and more than 100% of your bankroll on two plays. Do you think even one host has the guts to challenge this crappy, dumb as rocks move? Of course not!
I guess we'll get a bunch of opening day baseball under plays because his reasoning is it's cold. Yea right Fezz, the linesmakers don't account for cold weather in the total.
"Fezz Fraud", at his finest.
I guess we'll get a bunch of opening day baseball under plays because his reasoning is it's cold. Yea right Fezz, the linesmakers don't account for cold weather in the total.
"Fezz Fraud", at his finest.
texaswizzard
EOG Dedicated
How anyone could justify playing Houston -410 ML is just nuts. Texas A&M was playing great basketball leading up to the game even without key players all season long. They beat Iowa State, Tennessee, Kentucky twice and had only lost to Houston earlier in the year by 4 points down 2 starters. In the game Sunday night Texas A&M's top scorer also shot a horrifying 5-26 from the field. Even though Houston is talented their head coach Kelvin Sampson has a history of early departures and little success in March Madness & should be factored in any handicapping decision. Houston ML -410 was an awful bet and very easily could have lost.
Fezziksports
EOG Enthusiast
This Texas Wizard is a GENIUS! Why didn't he alert us to bet +10.5???
texaswizzard
EOG Dedicated
The line Opened Texas A&M +10.5 and closed +8 & +8.5. The Texas A&M ML opened +420 and closed +350 so it seems a lot of professionals & the public were on on the Aggies Sunday night. You had a nice Sat & Sun and had some good calls on almost every other game. Your other ML bets were solid. FYI I did bet Texas A&M at +10 and +10.5 and ML +400 and went 5-4 -1 over weekend on my bets. In hindsight I should have played Marquette ML -160 to -165 earlier as my only bet was -4.
Big swing on the 3* Vegas/Nashville NHL game. Pick was Nashville -135, down 3-0 after 1st period and 4-1 after 2 periods. Preds were 18/1 in-game odds to win.
Predators come back to win 5-4 in OT. Swings from a 4.05u loss to 3u win. Just another quiet day at Fezzik's Place.
Predators come back to win 5-4 in OT. Swings from a 4.05u loss to 3u win. Just another quiet day at Fezzik's Place.
Heim
EOG Master
I call and raise Lakers 35/1 down 19 in the 4th.
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Well the truth is you lifted that NHL play from someone
Just because it wasn't never doesn't mean it wasn't right
On another note, what happened to Makenzie on the pods like the nba one?