Fezzik----New Meaning To Mr. October

#81
FEZZIK | CFB SIDE SAT, 12/21/19 - 2:00 PM
207 Cent. Michigan 3.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 208 San Diego St.
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 19 2019 10:41AM PST



FEZZIK | CFB SIDE SAT, 12/21/19 - 7:30 PM
216 Boise St. 3.5 (-110) Southpoint vs 215 Washington
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 19 2019 10:42AM PST



FEZZIK | CFB SIDE SAT, 12/21/19 - 9:00 PM
217 UAB 17.0 (-115) Bookmaker vs 218 Appalachian St
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 19 2019 10:43AM PST



FEZZIK | CFB TOTAL SAT, 12/21/19 - 3:30 PM
212 Fla. Atlantic / 211 SMU Under 70.0 William Hill
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 19 2019 10:44AM PST



FEZZIK | CFB TOTAL SAT, 12/21/19 - 5:30 PM
214 Arkansas St. / 213 Florida Intl Under 63.0 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 19 2019 10:45AM PST
all 2* plays
 
#87
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#88
Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 1:00PM
464 TEN 3.0(-120) Pinnacle vs 463 NOS double-dime bet

Analysis: … Det Den -6.5, 38
Den blowout @KC last week giving us value here
Losing big to KC is not a huge negative
And Lock played poorly in the Snow Conditions
Det: My lowest rated NFL team
Den could easily have been a .500 team this year
Given that, laying -6.5 at home is cheap vs. the worst team in the NFL!
… Oak LA -7, 46
HFA: Negligible…………90 % Raiders fans…..
The Big Questions OAKLAND: How will they react to Jax loss?
The Raider LA Fans will take over the stadium
HFA: I gave Chargers 1 for it…….(lowest HFA of year)
Unlikely they will be much impacted by the Oakland Meltdown
Chargers: 7 Turnovers in Viking Loss:
How will THEY react to that debacle?

… jax ATL -7 46.5
Lean Atl
TEASE ATL
Atl playing much better
4-2 SU/ATS
1 of the ATS losses was by 1 point vs. Saints….
All 4 covers were by double digits
Jax gets an unlikely upset win @Oak, now a bad spot on road again
Now they have to travel again to Atl
AND locker room distractions
Players win ruling over mgmt on fines for players missing Treatments during offseason
… N Orl TEN 3, 50.5 LIKE TEN
N Orl, emotionally charged blowout MNF Win
Now they have to travel to Titans
Titans/Tannehill HAD been playing at a very high level for 4 weeks
21-24 loss vs. Hou, should they really now be getting 3 at home?
Titans only 11% to win the Division, however
Titans 58% to make the playoffs!
Team should still be very excited here.







… Nyg WASH -2 42
NYG possible emotional letdown!
Eli got emotional final win at HOME
“See everyone Wed!” he said after the win
Team got an extra day off
Will team be flat off that win, and with Jones at QB?
Wash: Underrated? Could have beaten Philly Sunday
Haskins: Played best game of season (QBR 57) YTD QBR 20
Wash: Playing Good Ball
W vs. Det, W @ CAR
Lose by 5 at GB, lost in final seconds @ Philly
… Pit JETS 3, 38
LIKE JETS LIKE UNDER Pit: Offense simply not there:
Steelers’ Offense has only scored 8 TDs in 7 games
Pit: 3 S/T Def TDS have made the scoreboard look better
VS. Indy/Rams/Az (3 close wins)
And Duck Hodges Regressing:
40 QBR YTD Last 4 games (Buf 17, Az 57, Clev 36, Cin 23)
Jets: Schedule Edge
10 days to prepare off blowout loss @ Baltimore
Vs. Pit tough physical SNF game vs. Buf
… Cin MIA pk 47.5
LIKE MIA PK
How is Cin clearly better than MIA??


Fitz a top 10 QB
Mia undervalued based on 1 bad game vs. Nyg (ELI rally game)
Fitz is a top 10 QB right now for Mia
Ranked 10th in QBR at 60.1 (Cousins 9, Ryan 11)
Despite a horrible start to season 1st 2 games



… Car INDY -7 46 PASS
The Big Question: Will Grier starts at QB for Carolina
How will team respond?
Sends message to team “We are evaluating talent”
PRESEASON: 8/8 @Chic: 9/16 77 4.8 1/1
8/16 Buf: 10/19 75 3.9 0/1
8/23 @ NE: 4/8 44 5.5 0/0
8/29 Pit : 11/18 189 10.5 1/1
Grier generally ineffective in preseason, but DID play 4 good defenses
Indy: How will THEY respond after being eliminated from Playoffs
Ty Hilton played, but was ineffective MNF
Team was crushed by Saints
… Balt CLV 10 48
LEAN CLEV: Power Ratings Strongly support it
Balt point spread tax in play (10-0 SU Run)
(7-1 ATS Run)
Just A lean:
Clev: Dreamcrusher at 6-8 eliminated from playoffs
Balt: Revenge for their last loss (25-40)
Prop Bet: Chubb UNDER about 100 Rush Yards
We would expect Balt to atone for Chubb 20/165 day…….

… Dal Philly 2.5, 46.5
Dallas No1 Team in the Stats
+1.4 YPPLAY
Dallas No. 1 in NFL in YPP Offense
And Eagles Offense compromised: Injuries:
LT Lane Johnson OUT
2 Best WRs DONE for year (Jackson, now Jeffery)
And no 3 WR Aguilar injured, ?
Team is playing practice squad players at WR….
Eagles: OVERRATED
Miracle cover vs. Wash last week
NEVER lead by more than 4 entire game
And trailed with 1 minute to play……
And fortunate win vs. Giants the week beforew
Won by 6 in OT
Trailed by 14 in 2nd half…….
Dak Health : Limited in Wed practice…….(shoulder)

I THINK THE DAK issue trumps the rest


We have to look to play PHilly given Dak may be MUCH less than 100%
… Az SEA -9.5 56.5
SEA: OVERRATED
10-1 in 1 score games
Sea has only won 1 game ALL YEAR by double digits
And they only yard the yardage in that game by 19
PROP BET Sea Carson OVER 90 RUSH YARDS
Without Penny Carson was the workhorse
254/130 last last week vs. Carolina
Similar dynamics here….Sea should have the lead and grind out a win
Az: Bad spot? Off an upset win, now go on the road……..
Vs a Sea team that already beat them by 17 in Az
… Kc CHIC 5, 45
LEAN KC
KC UNDERATED: 3 Games without Mahomes…. Matt Moore
3 Losses with Mahomes not 100% Indy, Hou, @ Titans
So offensive stats are depressed.
Despite that, KC is 2nd in NFL at 6.2 yards/play
And KC D should continue to improve with new DC Spagnaola
2018: KC D 26th (Football Outsiders)
2019: KC D 11th (Football Outsiders)
Held last 4 opponents to 17 or fewer yards……..
Bears: Dream Crusher Eliminated from the Playoffs……..With this being their last home game, they likely still bring a good effort
 

Heim

EOG Master
#90
NYG possible emotional letdown
N Orl, emotionally charged blowout MNF Win
Now they have to travel to Titans

Even before he became tout, his biggest weakness was assuming there are letdown spots in the pros. Good filler
if your a tout however. Customers are like Pavlov's dog when they see 'letdown spot'
 
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#91
I'm always amazed at the goofballs that post at Pregame.

The latest guy claimed to be a BLAP "member". Turns out he now claims that he gets BLAP "moves" from a "group", but "asks" Pregame for a refund of his money.
 
#93
I'm always amazed at the goofballs that post at Pregame.

The latest guy claimed to be a BLAP "member". Turns out he now claims that he gets BLAP "moves" from a "group", but "asks" Pregame for a refund of his money.
You haven’t exactly done your most noteworthy work in that thread over the years lol. It’s actually been quite embarrassing for a poster of your former stature.
 
#94
Well at least the pregame insiders were smart enough to create a new account to claim they were part of the BLAP program.

"Groups" being part of the program is something new.

Where is the pregame leak that can crack the how many subs do they have debate.
 
#95
FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 12/29/19 - 1:00 PM
104 CIN / 103 CLE Under 45.0 Southpoint
double-dime bet
Analysis:
‡WEATHER total.

Pick Made: Dec 24 2019 1:16PM PST





FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 12/29/19 - 1:00 PM
106 MIN / 105 CHI Under 37.5 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 24 2019 1:17PM PST


FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 12/29/19 - 1:00 PM
110 TAM / 109 ATL Under 48.0 Southpoint
double-dime bet
Analysis:


Pick Made: Dec 24 2019 1:18PM PST



FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 12/29/19 - 1:00 PM
114 CAR / 113 NOS Under 47.0 Southpoint
double-dime bet
Analysis:
‡WEATHER total

Pick Made: Dec 24 2019 1:18PM PST



FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 12/29/19 - 4:25 PM
118 BAL / 117 PIT Under 38.0 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
 
#98
Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 29 2019 8:20PM
130 SEA 3.5(-120) William Hill vs 129 SFX double-dime bet

Analysis: BONUS PLAY:\
2 stars, 120 BUF 1st half -120.


Attached are some of my NFL Notes;


… Phi NYG 4.5
I LIKE NYG +4.5, I bet NYG +4.5
Philly: Physically beat up: 3 straight ALLIN MUST win games
Won in OT vs. NYG
Won with late rally @ WASH
Won in most important game vs. Dallas
Philly: Cluster injuries at Receiver:
Down to No3 WR Agholor who may miss
No 1 TE Ertz has a broken Rib
NYG: Finally healthy on Offense
Barkley finally looking 100%
Back to back 100 yard rushing games
I LIKE NYG +4.5, I bet NYG +4.5







… Ten HOU 3.5, 45.5 P RATINGS Make it HOU -2.5
KC Early start time greatly impacts THIS game
If KC wins, Hou was NO incentive in the late game
Correlated Parlay:
KC Moneyline -355, to Tennessee -3.5
Correlated 7 point Teaser:
KC -1.5 to Titans +3.5
… Clev CIN 2.5, 43.5
Clev: Motivation Questions:
Just played Baltimore, the best team in the NFL
And got eliminated from the playoffs
Now they face Cincy, the team with the WORST record in the NFL
Cincy: Still playing hard
They played their hearts out, at Mia last week…….
And now they have clinched the No1 pick, no distractions from that




… Chic MIN pk, 37
P RATING with Cousins was MIN -7.5
Vikings: MAY rest key players……..COUSINS OUT
6 point downgrade to Sean Manion
Manion with Rams 2016-2018
Only 33/53 for Career, 4.9 0/1 QB RATING 66.4
Locked into No6 Seed
Bears: Showed Little Fight in last home game SNF vs. KC
At 7-8 hard to see them putting a Max Effort game to end season on Rd
If they WERE going to do that, it would have been Natl TV gm vs. KC
… Indy JAX 3.5
Jax: Primed for a good effort
locker room is Much happier with Coughlin Gone
Indy: Overrated: Based on last week blowout win vs. Car
Got To Face Will Grier
And got 2 Punt Ret TDs…


… Atl TB -1, 48
Atl playing like a top 7 team since their bye (Quinn ceded play calling to Def Assistants)
5-2 SU/ATS ATS Margin has been +11 points per game since Bye
Includes wins vs. SF and N Orl!
TBay: Still dealing with WR Cluster injuries
Evans OUT, Godwin DOUBTFUL, WR Miller OUT
… Wash DAL -11
Dak Health Issues? Did not practice all week (AC Joint Shoulder)
Dak had his 2nd most inaccurate gm of year vs. Philly
Did not look healthy…..
Washington: UPGRADE at QB (2 points)
Case Keenum takes over at QB
Keenum QBR 50.2, Haskins 26.2 (worst in NFL)
… N Orl CAR 13
Carolina has not covered a gm since Rivera firing…… 0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS
ATS Margin -14 points/game
Will Grier starting has sent a message to team: Winning is not the priority

… Pit -2 BALT, 37.5
LINE WOULD BE BALT -15.5 if they played all their starters!
Lamar Jackson vs. RG III Is 8 points
Are the other guys going to be worth 9 more points?
Pit: only 8 offensive Tds last 7 games
Pit: QB Issues They bench Hodges last week , and now will they need to play him again?
… Jets BUF -1, 36.5
Line would be Bills -9 full strength PRatings
THE BIG Question: How long will Bills play their Starters ?
Allen will start, Bills 1st half -120 !!Bills are locked into the No 5 Seed
… Mia NE -16, 45
CONSIDER: NE 1st half -9………..DERIVATIVE
NE likely will just run run run 2nd half…….
With NE wanting to stay healthy, they may stay ultra conservative 2ndhalf…..
… GB Det 9.5 Blough: 1stQuarter 14 points vs. Chicago was an aberration
Since then Det has only averaged 10 points/gm last 3 games
Going 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
GB: Extra Motivation: A win gets them a 1st round bye
… Chrg KC -9
KC D CONTINUES TO SURGE:
Held last 5 opponents to 17 or fewer points……..
Held last 2 opponents to 3 ! (Den, Chic)
And KC D should continue to improve with new DC Spagnaola
… Az Rams -4, 45
P Ratings: Full Strength: Rams -13 (with Hundley)
HUGE UNCERTAINTY in Game
Kyler Murray may sit (Hundley 4 point downgrade)
Rams may sit some starters










… Sf SEA 3.5, 47
HUGE Reaction to Sea RB injuries! Line WAS pk’m last week.
SF D has been struggling:
1st 7 games: Held EVERY opponent to 20 or less
Last 8 games: 7 of 8 opponent have gotten 20 or more
SF lost their star LB Alexander after week 8………..
Sea RB cluster Injuries?
Top 3 Rbs are all OUT (Carson, Penny, Prosite)
Leaves 4th string RB “Homer” Lynch, Turbin just signed
Sea has other injuries:
T Brown, DE CLowney, and 2 in Secondary All Qustionable
SF D Line injuries:Jones, Moore, OUT Dee Ford, Julian Taylor Quest?
… Oak DEN-3.5, 41
Raiders: Extra motivation based on still being alive for Playoffs
Oakland need 4 things to go right to stay alive, and got all 4………
Now Oak makes Playoffs with
A win, a Ten LOSS, a Pit Loss, and an INDY win
Oak: Drew Lock has been more than Servicable!
QBR of 52.6 (average)
Despite a horrible game in the KC Snow…(QBR 13)
 

Heim

EOG Master
Fezzik:

"Week 17 Just did not go our way......

I loved the card, got in bets that crushed the closing numbers........

Tough Sunday.........."


0-5 -11.20 units
 
So all the BLAP plays just got graded by Controller Bob from yesterday and his season long props. Fezzik was in full chase mode yesterday and went 0-8-1. His season long props went 3-4. He's now down 23 units with two days left in the year. Unless Fezzik gives out at least 15 plays each of the the last two days of the year and goes 13-2 or better each day he'll end this year a loser. He's now lost 2 out of the last 3 years. I wonder how RJ will spin it to try to get sales?
 
If i were Fezzik I would take Texas over Utes in the Bowl game. Dont get me wrong, I'm I Ute fan 7 days but Tuesday, but I think THE Horns are well round ed and have the edge here.
 
YTD -16.40u


Final Fezzik numbers from computer bob but this could be worse as a play was sent out at a line that was around for seconds I guess. Here are the details.

12/30/19 Monday (12/30/19 11:08am) W Ky 2H -3 -120 [13-10] CFB 2 T 0

VEGAS OF DAVIS

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POSTED: YESTERDAY - 10:04 AM
Post tools
#2165
We were not able to get 2h w ky -3 it was 4.5 when we got the order


VEGAS VIN

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POSTED: YESTERDAY - 11:42 AM
Post tools
#2166
We had the same issue best we found was 4-120 and unfortunately it mattered
 
Just for the record, several line histories show 2H W Ky -3 -110 was available for 4 to 17 minutes at multiple books from 11:03 AM onward.

However, 2H line was only available at -4 -107/-105/-110 at BetOnline. Slippery Pete is welcome to post a pic to show the 2H W Ky -3 -105 BetOnline bet.
 
Just for the record, several line histories show 2H W Ky -3 -110 was available for 4 to 17 minutes at multiple books from 11:03 AM onward.

However, 2H line was only available at -4 -107/-105/-110 at BetOnline. Slippery Pete is welcome to post a pic to show the 2H W Ky -3 -105 BetOnline bet.
Why don’t you hold fezzfk to the lines standard that you signed on to do?

“the standard with BLAP is the odds must be available from at least 30% of representative sportsbooks.” - Randall

It’s a real headscratcher why you’ve bailed on being an accurate grader over there after years of doing so on various forums.
 
Why don’t you hold fezzfk to the lines standard that you signed on to do?

“the standard with BLAP is the odds must be available from at least 30% of representative sportsbooks.” - Randall

It’s a real headscratcher why you’ve bailed on being an accurate grader over there after years of doing so on various forums.
I do verify the lines. I have rejected a few picks as not available. I have graded over 3800 picks since I began with Fezzik's Pregame BLAP.

All BLAP picks are time and date stamped from my text as I receive them.

If you or someone else wants to post proof that a line isn't available, I'll be gald to look into it and void a play.
 
Where's Ty Gaston been ?

Ron Bash. Head Coach of a College Basketball National Championship Team. LONGWOOD COLLEGE.


Under the Hat is still at it.

Call 1-900.
 
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