Futures limit down

#82
It will slippery.

Its like the transgender at the bar who looks good with low lighting and a few in you.

You thought it was a woman but it turned out to be a guy.
 
#84
this makes no no no sense. the markets cant be this high given that people are going to get money but it isn't going to come for many weeks yet and it is only $1200 which is probably going to cover one month's rent or a part of a mortgage.

things haven't reached their peak of this spreading yet and getting back to normal in certain areas by Easter is way way way too optimistic.

unless the feds pump another $6 trillion into the people's hands to cover the next 60 days there has to be a regression to this market.
 
#85
there is no secret here. Its been like that since 2008

Market is not the economy.

Market = Fed liquidity

The more juice, the higher it goes. And right now the Fed pledged unlimited amounts

And thats how the wealth transfer is completed

At times like these when they turn paper profits into real ones (like buying up real estate)

(give me a billion, I will double it and then I will give your billion back)
 
Last edited:

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#86
Apparently the factors like the virus, higher than expected unemployment and jobs reports are having inverse effects. How much more could the invested oversell as the buying opportunities will be relevant now and going forward for the majority in the long haul which most are in for.
 
#87
Apparently the factors like the virus, higher than expected unemployment and jobs reports are having inverse effects. How much more could the invested oversell as the buying opportunities will be relevant now and going forward for the majority in the long haul which most are in for.
You guys are thinking too much about impacts and news that is too close to today. Market generally pricing about 6 months in advance so its priced assuming where things are in September/October. Of course things could change between now and then and if those things impact what happens in 6 months the market reprices. But this basically is telling you market has already assumed a big spike in unemployment, but also is expecting some recovery by fall. One could certainly challenge any of the market's thinking and that is what makes for price discovery, but don't lose sight of the fact that if you take 40% out of the market's value, there's probably a bias to the upside than the downside unless a true depression is coming.

I still believe the most important factor is when will the economy get moving again. Trump's push for a sooner restart is by far more important to the market than all the other factors. If it appears there will be enough pushback that the lockdown doesn't end until May or later, you will see the market drop because obviously the longer this goes on, the worse September looks. Also think the massive amount of stimulus in the unemployment benefits is also pushing the market up because if people are getting $600 extra per week, that goes a long way to making sure most people are making almost as much, or in some limited cases more, than they were so the negative feedback on consumer spending is much less. The hype about everyone getting a check is overdone, its not a lot of money and it really depends on what people could spend on then. If the money shows up in a few weeks and everything is closed, lots of that money is not going to get spent. If the economy is largely reopened and people can go shopping or travel when the checks are hitting, its a different story with probably much reduced negative GDP coming.
 
#88
this is the patroits -5 going to patroits -9 on the road when its announced that brady, edelman and the entire offfensive line are out but they are moving the game from thursday night to monday night football and jimmy g has been traded to them to play this week.

seriously wtf is going on with the people buying stock right now.
 
#89
this is the patroits -5 going to patroits -9 on the road when its announced that brady, edelman and the entire offfensive line are out but they are moving the game from thursday night to monday night football and jimmy g has been traded to them to play this week.

seriously wtf is going on with the people buying stock right now.
WTF is it with people going to all cash at times? People act for all kinds of reasons, some rational and some not. However the fact that you have a very different opinion of the market than others is what makes for the market and its pricing discovery. If everyone thought the same the market would be as boring as could be.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#93
Vote could be delayed again. All because of a dispute between a role call or voice vote. Anything to inconvenience the process for us again. And you can't tell me the knee jerk reaction isn't at the very least contributing in some way to suddenly plummeting futures, which have doubly dropped over the last half hour.
 
#94
plummeting futures is because the market is way overpriced. I think the market goes down an additional 40-50% The stimulus bill moved it up, in additiion to shorts covering. With no more positive news, look for major downside ahead. And no were not opening up for Easter.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#95
I agree the market will continue to fall, but 10-11,000 might be extremely far fetched, as it is also plenty oversold. The fact that it was finally approved today by the House should have provided a positive reaction, yet the Dow lost 600 points over the last 40 minutes anyway amidst the reality of the virus generating more cases and deaths. Our "president" is so clueless that twice he mentioned the wrong amount the Fed is providing.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#96
We will retest the lows, IMO. This is a sugar high off the insane money printing.

But the talking heads are assuming the low from last week holds. We don't know that. Markets just don't turn on a dime. It's going to take a while to work thru all this.

Dow: 37.5% retracement; 18,480
Dow 50% retracement: 14,769
Dow 62.5% retracement: 11,077

S&P 37.5% retracement: 2,123
S&P 50.0% retracement: 1,700
S&P 62.5% retracement: 1,274

Worst case scenario? Not likely but the 666 low on S & P (March 2009) can't be completely ruled out.
 
#97
In my opinion money printing will stop working (it may or may not) when companies start to file for bankruptcy.

Giving money to primary dealers will not help in that case.

At that point, it will be tough to put money in, cause you dont really know who is next
 
#98
In my opinion money printing will stop working (it may or may not) when companies start to file for bankruptcy.

Giving money to primary dealers will not help in that case.

At that point, it will be tough to put money in, cause you dont really know who is next
Man you are really confusing a few things there. Fed won't loan on big risks that could go bankrupt, so that is not a factor that primary dealers will face unless you are assuming this becomes a much different situation with a ton of bankruptcies that include potentially major financial services. I highly doubt that happens unless this becomes a years long shutdown of the economy.
 
#99
this week is going to be a wild ride down.

trump pulls his easter time of opening up areas and pushes it back to April 30.

Then states that June 1 might be a better restart time frame.

that $1200 isn't going to stretch that far.
 
Futures pretty mild down right now. I get a sense the public is finally numbing a bit. The data wasn't great this weekend but after enough time the view is oh well just more people dying. The horror story starts to lose its punch. If the media wants to push the market down they better start focusing on the economic impacts and the debt impacts of the responses. The story of people dying or the infections increasing are losing their steam.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Seen future ranges as low as 400 yesterday and as high as 220. Volatility is still there this morning (+75 to -225 range) but hopeful we won't see larger losses early at the open.
 
Futures pretty mild down right now. I get a sense the public is finally numbing a bit. The data wasn't great this weekend but after enough time the view is oh well just more people dying. The horror story starts to lose its punch. If the media wants to push the market down they better start focusing on the economic impacts and the debt impacts of the responses. The story of people dying or the infections increasing are losing their steam.
In your experience how far into the future do the markets work?

So the markets going up today indicates good things 30 days out? 60 days?
 
In your experience how far into the future do the markets work?

So the markets going up today indicates good things 30 days out? 60 days?
Its a predictor of company fortunes in 6-9 months. It includes already passed and potential future government programs and Fed actions (although not much left for them to add). The market never trades on 30-60 days unless its a bet on insolvency or a transaction occuring. Bond markets have a shorter timeframe which is why bonds can have seemingly divergent views, but not something I have been involved in enough to really precisely understand.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Its a predictor of company fortunes in 6-9 months. It includes already passed and potential future government programs and Fed actions (although not much left for them to add). The market never trades on 30-60 days unless its a bet on insolvency or a transaction occuring. Bond markets have a shorter timeframe which is why bonds can have seemingly divergent views, but not something I have been involved in enough to really precisely understand.
Speaking of numbing, I believe you're right. How much more can really shock the market now?
 
Speaking of numbing, I believe you're right. How much more can really shock the market now?
Yep, what's another day with 500 more deaths, its just repeating what we have heard. Not to be mean about it, but it is human psychology, the first few deaths are shocking, when it grows it gets even more scary, but give it enough time and you can accept just about anything with very minimal emotional change. What could shock the market more is if somehow the consensus about when the economy opens up again gets drastically changed. Not slowly changed as we have seen in recent days, but drastically changed like if Fauci started saying we open in September and Trump quickly agrees. If it just changes a week or two the market might go down a bit, but the adjustment quickly gets baked into expectations.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Yep, what's another day with 500 more deaths, its just repeating what we have heard. Not to be mean about it, but it is human psychology, the first few deaths are shocking, when it grows it gets even more scary, but give it enough time and you can accept just about anything with very minimal emotional change. What could shock the market more is if somehow the consensus about when the economy opens up again gets drastically changed. Not slowly changed as we have seen in recent days, but drastically changed like if Fauci started saying we open in September and Trump quickly agrees. If it just changes a week or two the market might go down a bit, but the adjustment quickly gets baked into expectations.
Maryland closing until the middle of June was a wet blanket thrown on optimism for many.
 
Stocks will hit all time highs with 10% + unemployment.

Book it!!!
This will NOT happen. Lows have to be retested. And its going to be awhile before unemployment gets as "low" as 10%.

Charts are broken. You may see a 20-25% rally but bear market rallies are like that. And we are in a secular bear market.
 
Don't disagree with the assessment re: physical gold, but in monitoring the financial markets generally, physical gold is a bit hard to come by lately. There was a point in the panic where it flew off the shelves like, well, toilet paper. And then the bullion refiners like Pamp Suisse had production interruptions due to COVID-19 outbreaks in their workforces.
 
Don't disagree with the assessment re: physical gold, but in monitoring the financial markets generally, physical gold is a bit hard to come by lately. There was a point in the panic where it flew off the shelves like, well, toilet paper. And then the bullion refiners like Pamp Suisse had production interruptions due to COVID-19 outbreaks in their workforces.
A number of the big mines are in Switzerland, near the Italy border and many of the workers are Italian so those mines will be shut down for awhile.
 
Yep, the principal refiners are basically within a stone's throw, relatively speaking, and all got knocked out. So panic buying off the shelves associated with supply disruptions.

Seems that one does have to prepare for the Zombie Apocalypse, as it gets to be too late to do sundry things after the stuff starts splattering the fan blades.
 
Top