Futures limit down

How reliable is he?

For like the past 12 years I've been trying to find a guy that is right more often than wrong.

Yet to find one.

Most average 1 out 10

There are many guys that make sense when they talk, but if you follow up on it... it falls apart
 
Pretty good, maybe an 8 out of 10. I rate most talking heads very low like 1, 2 or 3.

One of my favorite dunces is Ed Yardeni, a stellar idiot, who thought the world markets would crash because of software bugs due to Y2K. He still appears on CNBC.

Another ivory tower idiot was Ben Bernanke, who famously testified before Congress that there was no chance sub-prime mortgages could weaken the US economy, 9 months later, crash.
 
Many times I wonder how these dudes "fail upwards" so spectacularly.

Say a guy like Mark Cuban. He looks the part, make a lot of sense most of the time.

But after following up on predictions over the years, I dont think he was ever right once.

Or another like Kyle Bass, he always made so much sense to me and sounded so smart but other than his call that made him famous (betting against Greek debt in 2009 or so) I dont think I found him to get anything right after that.
So he had University of Texas as client and in 2011 as gold was at 1900 he convinced them to buy a billion dollars worth of it.
Shortly after that gold was trading at 1100.
I dont think he is welcome on campus anymore
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Jim Chanos was pretty interesting on CNBC today. Yeah, some will describe him as a "permabear" as he specializes in short selling. But so what? We are likely in a secular bear market. He hit a 500 foot home run with Luckin Coffee. He mentioned GrubHub as a short he likes; I was thought they had a stupid business model. Uber and restaurant stocks just toxic right now. I just posted the link above re: real estate. Obviously financials could have a horrific time; problems in the credit and debt markets and now a giant wave of foreclosures looming. Some of the banks are going to have to fail.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Looks like another volitale market week ahead. Futures up 850 already on the overnight. Could be a reaction to certain states possibly reaching their Alex already, but that's just speculation. Last week the Dow was down "slightly" compared to previous weeks, but crude meeting was cancelled between Saudis and Russia resulting in oil plunging.
 
The rise today took out the more recent highs from a couple weeks ago. Hedge funds probably going to start getting into risk on a bit to make sure they don't miss a big run up. Nothing is certain of course, but seems more likely the low is already in and we'll recover some of the damage that came from massively oversold conditions that included a ton of margin call damage. Won't retake all time highs for awhile because that will require funds and the crazy algo shit to leverage up again. I read Seeking Alpha and its insane, 90% of people are like I will buy again once we retest lows. But there's no guarantee we need to retest lows just because that's what normally happens. All the market action is not normal so assuming things will get into a typical pattern is a risky assumption in itself.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
The rise today took out the more recent highs from a couple weeks ago. Hedge funds probably going to start getting into risk on a bit to make sure they don't miss a big run up. Nothing is certain of course, but seems more likely the low is already in and we'll recover some of the damage that came from massively oversold conditions that included a ton of margin call damage. Won't retake all time highs for awhile because that will require funds and the crazy algo shit to leverage up again. I read Seeking Alpha and its insane, 90% of people are like I will buy again once we retest lows. But there's no guarantee we need to retest lows just because that's what normally happens. All the market action is not normal so assuming things will get into a typical pattern is a risky assumption in itself.
And if/when we retest the lows, no guarantee they will hold.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Dow closed at 22,600 and change, and the overnight futures are up nearly 500. That puts us some 5,000 points or approximately 27% higher than the 52 week low. It would take a selling surge or similar collapse we had in late February to re-test those lows. VIX was as low as 41 today, and is currently sitting at that level right now compared to the 80+ it was during the major sell-off.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Dow closed at 22,600 and change, and the overnight futures are up nearly 500. That puts us some 5,000 points or approximately 27% higher than the 52 week low. It would take a selling surge or similar collapse we had in late February to re-test those lows. VIX was as low as 41 today, and is currently sitting at that level right now compared to the 80+ it was during the major sell-off.
I just remember 2000-2003 and 2008-2009 too well. There were numerous rallies of 20% during those times, but they would all fail.

If one believes in technical analysis, and I do, you cannot have a 35% fall in 3 weeks and expect it to turn on a dime and go right back into a long term uptrend. Just too much chart damage. Even if there was not a single additional new case or death, the market would probably need nearly 6 months to consolidate and get rid of the damage. That's not to say there aren't long trades, but just likely no long term long investments, at this point in time.
 
I still see the market going down big. It was over priced to begin with, then the virus, then oil. I believe we are far from a bottom, as it will take years to recover the losses. Hows that corner store in ny paying rent with no customers, or being a pro gambler, no games or poker to bet on but rent is still due. The bottom is not going to happen over night, with patience or maybe Joe Biden as president we will get there.
 
Market at its high was up around 940 on the Dow. Closed down -26. Roller coaster time.

A guy on CNBC called for a V shaped recovery, but he then admitted every point he made for it was "crazy". LOL
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
I still see the market going down big. It was over priced to begin with, then the virus, then oil. I believe we are far from a bottom, as it will take years to recover the losses. Hows that corner store in ny paying rent with no customers, or being a pro gambler, no games or poker to bet on but rent is still due. The bottom is not going to happen over night, with patience or maybe Joe Biden as president we will get there.
What will Biden do? Raise taxes and increase regulations? That won't spur a recovery.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
What a difference a day makes. Other than early jitters as discouraging virus cases and deaths came out, market slowly and steadily up all day unlike yesterday's freefall from opening session highs. Bernie's drop out certainly showing a positive effect for Biden.
 
What will Biden do? Raise taxes and increase regulations? That won't spur a recovery.
Go research the last 3 or 4 decades and get back to us. I believe the stock markets have done way better under democratic leadership and policies vs. Republicons. This includes H1N1 and Ebola crisis Obama had to deal with. It wouldn't surprise me if you find out it isn't even close. But the Republicons Propaganda machine will always traffic misinformation such as, Democratic leadership is bad for the stock market, that low IQ Americans will buy into. But it's definitely a misnomer,
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
Go research the last 3 or 4 decades and get back to us. I believe the stock markets have done way better under democratic leadership and policies vs. Republicons. This includes H1N1 and Ebola crisis Obama had to deal with. It wouldn't surprise me if you find out it isn't even close. But the Republicons Propaganda machine will always traffic misinformation such as, Democratic leadership is bad for the stock market, that low IQ Americans will buy into. But it's definitely a misnomer,
Maybe you are forgetting how Obama "fixed" the financial crisis. Just increase the debt from $9 trillion to $20 trillion. All that liquidity made its way into the stock market. Fixes? Nothing got fixed. We are seeing banks up to same tactics again, getting overlevered. He kicked the can far down the road. We just are tripping over it now.
 
Maybe you are forgetting how Obama "fixed" the financial crisis. Just increase the debt from $9 trillion to $20 trillion. All that liquidity made its way into the stock market. Fixes? Nothing got fixed. We are seeing banks up to same tactics again, getting overlevered. He kicked the can far down the road. We just are tripping over it now.

You have been fact checked. Obama incresed the debt by 74% or 8.5 trillion. Bush increased the debt 105% or 6 trillion. Reagan increased the debt 186%. Can't wait to see Trump's numbers over his 4 years.

You were fact check and we see a pattern. The RepubliCon President increase the debt more than a Democratic President. I believe Clinton was the last president to have a surplus.

It's amazing how many low IQ people and senior citizens buy into the RepubliCon propaganda machine. Sad, very sad.
 
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