Hot stove thread

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MrTop

EOG Master
it is off of the closing numbers at opening day. at BP and Cris... so it would have to win at 4 wins off 3 would be a push



they have a big advantage i would think. However I never seen the closing numbers each year they said. BP said every game at the difference... does not matter if you like it or not
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Drnkyourmlkshk said:
What sample size? I have to look at this because seems insanely far fetched.
Win projected by division that seem crazy. Bump either way at end of year.
Nym 96
Atlanta 82

Milwaukee 94
St. L 81

Toronto 86
Boston 80

Angel's 87
Oakland 80

These all seem far fetched and numbers I'd prefer to bet at than speculate. I'm still a couple weeks away from being ready to bet RSW's but there is too much cieling and floor in these imo.
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it is 3 points off the closing line... BP was talking about any team off their closing BP number vs Cris
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Drnkyourmlkshk said:
Pecota is the worst. They have the white Sox winning 83, Angel's 88, TB 89.. I wish they took wagers
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It’s out of print already, my BP arrives sunday. The Sox pecota total surprised me some. People will bet the win totals based on pecota, so you will get some value perhaps. Personally I’m playing cubs under on wins. If they don’t win early, they may be sellers.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
It’s out of print already, my BP arrives sunday. The Sox pecota total surprised me some. People will bet the win totals based on pecota, so you will get some value perhaps. Personally I’m playing cubs under on wins. If they don’t win early, they may be sellers.
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the book is good... i like the website.. it cost more but it gets updated
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Viejo Dinosaur said:
Only place where he has had success....Cubs rolling the dice.....
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I have a feeling the Ricketts are selling feel-good stories and are not super interested in winning anymore. Next offseason will be key for them. Then again, if they can't have fans, they may go bankrupt.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
cubs are in an easy division.. So they have a shot to do something but if they fall out of the race one or two players could be gone in july-aug
 
Heisenberg

Heisenberg

2
I wouldn't touch baseball futures this year. Way too much uncertainty still with Covid and pitchers dealing with last season.
 
D

Drnkyourmlkshk

EOG Dedicated
MrTop said:
it is 3 points off the closing line... BP was talking about any team off their closing BP number vs Cris
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Ran 4 years of numbers last night with pecota RSW projections. Are we counting CLV on the RSW or the actual number of games won? The latter is really results oriented heavy but I did both just in case.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Drnkyourmlkshk said:
Ran 4 years of numbers last night with pecota RSW projections. Are we counting CLV on the RSW or the actual number of games won? The latter is really results oriented heavy but I did both just in case.
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if i remember the guy from BP said his record with 3 wins or more was high..he showed his record....i don't remember the record or how far back for sure.. but i do remember anyone would get crushed by his numbers.. it was really high if of course it was true.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Drnkyourmlkshk said:
Ran 4 years of numbers last night with pecota RSW projections. Are we counting CLV on the RSW or the actual number of games won? The latter is really results oriented heavy but I did both just in case.
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nothing to do with opening projections..or opening lines.




this is what he is saying
cris closing number
BP closing number at the bp site --- differences of 3 wins or more-- all the games
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
MrTop said:
The last three seasons, there have been 32 instances of PECOTA and Vegas disagreeing by three wins or more on futures, If you bet with PECOTA in each instance, you’d have gone 22-10.
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I'm likely to go the PECOTA route this year. I have a normal process I use for MLB RSW totals and it's been great the last 5-6 years, but I do not trust the 2020 data. Just not enough games, and I question how many players were 100 pct "into it". Ironically I thought the results were very logical and did well betting games individually, but collectively, I don't trust the sample size. There also seems to be quite a bit of player movement throughout the league, and that can render team stats less meaningful. I think the same will apply to the NFL this upcoming season. Sports were "back", but were they? New England had something like 9 players opt out.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
from the letter to Cubs season ticket holders :

we have the resources to compete in 2022 and beyond and we will use them
 
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