Looks like another $2,000,000+ overlay with Circa Million IV and Survivor contests 2022-2023

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
They really need to change the format with lines being -3 / +2.5, -7 / +6.5, so it reflects actual betting opinions.

Maybe Westgate will make the change to pump some life back into their dead contest.

Jeff at Circa told me it's a software issue. I believe it has more to do with a lack of creativity and laziness.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor thru Sun AM, Week 4: survive: 482 (Bengals, Vikings, Eagles, Chargers, Jets, Cowboys, Giants, Falcons), eliminated: 325 (21.0%), pending: 743, no ticket: 0.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor going into SNF, Week 4: survive: 1216 (Bengals, Vikings, Eagles, Chargers, Jets, Cowboys, Giants, Falcons, Cards, Raiders, Packers), eliminated: 328 (21.0%), pending: 6, no ticket: 0.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Week 4 record thru AM games:

Overall W/L/T: 11112 7395 1478 60.0%

Pts #Cappers
17.5 1
17.0 2
16.5 2
16.0 8
15.5 12
15 43
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Week 4: point distribution going into MNF:

Overall W/L/T record: 11917-8201-1478, 59.2%

Pts #Cappers
18.5 1
18 3
17.5 1
17.0 11
16.5 5
16.0 40
15.5 34
15 118

Last Place (#Losses):
Pts #Cappers
18 2
17.5 2
17 5
16 14
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Final Week 4, point distribution:

Overall W/L/T record: 12674-9013-1478, 58.4%
Total: 49337-42015-1478, 54.0%


Pts #Cappers
18.5 2
18 5
17.5 1
17.0 14
16.5 6
16.0 51
15.5 49
15 145
14.5 80
14 239

Last Place (#Losses):
Pts #Cappers

18 1
17.5 2
17 5
16 12
15.5 9
15 25
 

railbird

EOG Master
Circa Million IV Final Week 4, point distribution:

Overall W/L/T record: 12674-9013-1478, 58.4%
Total: 49337-42015-1478, 54.0%


Pts #Cappers
18.5 2
18 5
17.5 1
17.0 14
16.5 6
16.0 51
15.5 49
15 145
14.5 80
14 239

Last Place (#Losses):
Pts #Cappers

18 1
17.5 2
17 5
16 12
15.5 9
15 25
im the bubble boy
 

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated

FYI: https://www.circalasvegas.com/circa-survivor-empathy-package/

Calling all eliminated Circa Survivor contestants!​

We know what it’s like to make a bad pick, so we’d like to show our appreciation to all Circa Survivor contestants that have been eliminated thus far. Any Circa Survivor contestant who had all of their entries eliminated within the first three weeks of the NFL season will receive a complimentary redemption package.

This mid-week complimentary package will include a hotel stay at any of our three properties along with a day bed at Stadium Swim during your visit.

Valid Dates: November 7 – January 5 (Monday – Thursday)
 

Fezzik

EOG Veteran
This Raiders guy could be the dumbest guy in America.

Seriously, I had THIS VERY same argument with dozens of people in 2005, when i explained to them how Contests were like 200% ROI vs. the donkey field.

FURTHER, if need be you can selectively hedge select games late.

Even without ANY overlays, my ROI in contests is just silly good.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor final Week 5: survive: 718 (49ers, Vikings, Bills, Pats, Bucs, Eagles, Chargers, Saints, Ravens, Chiefs), eliminated: 504 (41.2%), no ticket: 0.

Equity per entry: $8,541.78
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into SNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 8505-9939-1810, 46.1%

Pts #Cappers
20.5 1
20 8
19.5 6
19 15
18.5 27
18 54
17.5 64
17 108
16.5 122
16 191
15.5 212
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into MNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 9599-10586-1810, 47.6%

Pts #Cappers Place
21 2 T1
20.5 1 3
20 6 T4
19.5 12 T10
19 23 T22
18.5 42 T45
18 75 T87
17.5 69 T162
17 126 T231
16.5 130 T357
16 200 T487
15.5 244 T687
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings and payout if contest stopped:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 10093-11277-1810, 47.2%

Pts #Cappers Place Payout
21 3 T1 $633,333.33
20.5 3 T4 $300,000.00
20 6 T7 $115,000.00
19.5 13 T13 $32,461.54
19 33 T26 $16,159.09
18.5 45 T59 $4,550.00
18 85 T104
17.5 74 T189
17 131 T263
16.5 137 T394
16 206 T531
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor entries alive per name (count of multiple entries), going into Week 6:

#PerName Count
1 431
2 89
3 20
4 1
5 3
6 5

718 alive out of 6133.

The average weekly elimination percentage rate is 33.3%.

If that % persists, does anyone have an estimate of how long the contest will continue until a sole survivor is crowned?
 

railbird

EOG Master
Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into MNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 9599-10586-1810, 47.6%

Pts #Cappers Place
21 2 T1
20.5 1 3
20 6 T4
19.5 12 T10
19 23 T22
18.5 42 T45
18 75 T87
17.5 69 T162
17 126 T231
16.5 130 T357
16 200 T487
15.5 244 T687
if i went 4-1 would have solo lead
 

railbird

EOG Master
Circa survivor entries alive per name (count of multiple entries), going into Week 6:

#PerName Count
1 431
2 89
3 20
4 1
5 3
6 5

718 alive out of 6133.

The average weekly elimination percentage rate is 33.3%.

If that % persists, does anyone have an estimate of how long the contest will continue until a sole survivor is crowned?
rooting for everyone to be eliminated by Hannukah
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
good news, everybody is getting annilhlated today

For sure ....

Circa survivor Week 6 going into the PM games: Survive: 18 (Colts, Vikings, Commanders, Bengals), Eliminated: 328 (45.7%), 372 pending, no ticket: 0.

Equity per entry: $15,725.64
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor Week 6 going into MNF: Survive: 339 (Colts, Vikings, Commanders, Bengals, Rams, Eagles), Eliminated: 336 (46.8%), 43 pending (Chargers), no ticket: 0.
 
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pro analyser

EOG Veteran
While everyone was involved with the revenge angle of Bills Kc. Bigger revenge angle next week with SF over KC. First meeting since KC beat SF in Superbowl. Also playing Jags over Giants and Wash over GB. Like this week both teams played in London last week,played again this week,and must play again following week which should take a toll.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa Million IV Week 6 Distribution going into MNF:
Points #Entries Place
25 1 1
24.5 1 2
24 3 3
23.5 0 6
23 4 6
22.5 9 10
22 20 19
21.5 34 39
21 58 73
20.5 54 131
20 106 185
19.5 110 291
19 186 401
18.5 183 587
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Crazy carnage for survivor pools this year, I only know of 2 guys still alive in Circa, seems like every week this year there's big moneyline losers compared to not long ago when it seemed every big favorite was escaping games late.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Five entrants had each bought 6 entries and had them all still alive thru Week 5. Now 1 has four alive, 1 has 3, 1 has 2 and 1 has 0 alive.

The other one has all 6 on the Chargers tonight!
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor Final Week 6: Survive: 382 (Colts, Vikings, Commanders, Bengals, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Eliminated: 336 (46.8%), no ticket: 0.

Equity: $16.054.97
 

ComptrBob

EOG Dedicated
Circa survivor entries alive per name (count of multiple entries), going into Week 7:

#PerName Count
1 277
2 39
3 4
4 1
5 1
6 1
 
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