In 2023. 6-0. 4-3 last year.
MLB 2025
- Thread starter kane
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In 2023. 6-0. 4-3 last year.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
So hard to bet on him to stay healthy.
That might be a decent hedge, but definitely look toward unders in his counting stats. Like FW said, you can't count on him staying healthy.
Interesting. I do believe the White Sox have a shot at going over that ultra low bar. But tough to go against a team who preaches contact, and finds ways to get the most out of their pitchers. I think McKenzie is a big key. He was awful last year, but still was coming off an injury. If he can locate, he's very tough to hit.
KC under has to be the basic strategy play within the division. You go from 56 wins to 86 wins? Not sustainable, IMO. What if Witt misses any time? I think one could do quite well in both MLB and NFL season win totals just fading the big risers from the previous season. Probably moreso in the NFL, but still applies in MLB also.
kane
EOG master
I'm high on them this year, so are the sharps apparently as their win total has gone up from the opener, I played them to cut down the nets, the only reason I don't like them to win the division is the division they play in, toughest in MLB, they could go over their win total and still finish third, but I wouldn't talk you out of making that bet
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
I see the Phillies interested in Devers, but the Red Sox want too much
kane
EOG master
I thought they would end up with Bregman, I doubt the Sox would trade Devers, but if they could somehow land him, wow what a lineup
Heim
EOG Master
I ended up taking BoSox to make playoffs -105, although I see NYY Gil could have some arm issues.
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BP? Brad Powers isn’t a MLB guy.
Shaw is hurt. Among others.
Here we go:
Cubs UNDER 87 1/2 (-125 Bet JACK). What, aren't you a fan? Sure, but I'm a realist. I have no problem betting against teams I root for. A number of injuries to start the season; the aforementioned Shaw (oblique), Dansby Swanson (hernia surgery in offseason), Nico Hoerner (forearm surgery). Imanaga was great in his first year with the Cubs, but guys who rely heavily on deception often regress after the league has a year to look at. Cubs had some beneficial sequencing last year; pitching staff allowed a .282 BABIP but only .259 w RISP. Offensively, they were a 101 WRC+ overall but a 106 w RISP. I do like the additions to the bullpen but the media seems to think replacing Bellinger with Tucker is a giant upgrade. Tucker is a very good player, but he will find out that Wrigley is NOT kind to LHH pull power. And if you, as a sportsbook, put out a RSW total off 2 full wins from Pinnacle, you probably are wrong.
Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 81 1/2 (-110 BetMGM). Going against the analytics darlings? Why not? It seems under the radar that many aren't talking about the Rays not playing any games in Tropicana Field. Avg Joe: "they don't draw many fans so it won't matter". That would be a very poor, ill advised take. Damage to the stadium from an offseason hurricane will mean the Rays home games will be at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. The winter home of the hated division rival Yankees. The Rays actually had a very sizeable home field advantage; poor lighting, a hard, fast artificial surface and a much tougher place to hit HRs than places like Fenway or Yankee Stadium were difficult for opponents to adjust to. In the past 4 years, the Rays were 198-126 at home (61%) while 167-157 (51.5%) on the road. Ironically they actually now will be playing in the city of Tampa; not St. Petersburg.
Cody Bellinger OVER 20 1/2 HRs (Bet MGM). This is just a basic strategy play. Many fans just assume Wrigley is a HR haven; and while it is from June onward, the wind blows out a lot more to LCF, so RHH are the main beneficiaries. Kyle Schwarber's career certainly wasn't hurt getting away from Wrigley. And how have things worked out for RHH like Kris Bryant and Javier Baez? So Bellinger is not only going from a park that punished lefty power, he's going to a park with a cozy RF porch.
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
I agree. Cash is about done pulling rabbits out of his cap.
And if they have a prop on TB home rain outs give me the OVER. Any number.
That home field is very underrated. I didn't even mention the ceiling, which is whitish/off white. Not easy to locate high fly balls with that ceiling.
I think shaw will be ok...ribcage. Rest is needed ..hernia..well i am going thru it now and i did not know at first there are 3 of them in the abdomen ..I got all 3....a couple of surgeries. Cannot play with that... out a couple of months for swanson
the forearm ..i have no idea how bad that is
the forearm ..i have no idea how bad that is
Patrick McIrish
OCCams raZOR
Yeah the thinking peculiarities decrease a HFA is wrong, if anything they tend to enhance it.
Good luck w/recovery Mr Top, you'll be back bringing the high hard stuff before you know it.
kane
EOG master
I watched some of Reds/Cubs yesterday, Shaw batted three times and seemed fine, during the game he was interviewed in the dugout and nothing was mentioned about an injury, I don't follow the Cubs so I don't know, but he seemed fine at the plate
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Idk what to think about the Cubs. Their strength is the division is weak. I think it comes down to them and Cinn, 88 is a lot for that bet to beat you.
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
And probably lose both games!
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Are they? I thought both teams lost one.
maybe my eyes are going..let me check
79 home.... +2 = 81
i got it from athlon
2+14+14+11+12+13+15
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FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Depends what you think of the Yankees. I'm not sold on them, and I think Baltimore will miss Burnes.
I think the Yankees starting pitching is going to be the difference. Plus, add Devin Williams to an already very good relieving core.
I like what the Red Sox did getting Crochet, but how much do you trust the rest of that staff and a bunch of mid 30's relievers.
Houck- seems to have turned the corner
Witlock- I believe he is going to be a reliever
Bello- injured and took a step back last year
Giolito- nothing more than an innings eater
Sandoval- coming off Tommy John who knows
Bueller- looked terrible coming off Tommy John, seemed to turn it around towards the end of the season. We'll see.
2nd Place if you ask me.
Ended up adding KC Under 83 1/2 (JACK) for the reasons mentioned above.
Prop: Juan Soto UNDER 33 1/2 HRs (Bet MGM). 3 reasons; 1) moving from Yankee Stadium to Citi Field; 2) No Aaron Judge batting behind him; 3) he just got paid big.
boston massacre
EOG Master
Let's See How This Guy Does , Come October.
Not your Average Joe
Joe Peta, author of Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball, offered his MLB Win Total wagers on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander.
Joe served up six bets:
Yankees Under 91.5 wins (+100)
Red Sox over 86.5 wins (-110)
Mariners Over 85.5 wins (-110)
Twins Over 84.5 wins (-120)
Guardians Under 82 wins (-115)
Pirates Under 77 wins (-110)
In this clip, Joe goes through his rationale on his Guardians and Pirates bets.
Not your Average Joe
Joe Peta, author of Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball, offered his MLB Win Total wagers on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander.
Joe served up six bets:
Yankees Under 91.5 wins (+100)
Red Sox over 86.5 wins (-110)
Mariners Over 85.5 wins (-110)
Twins Over 84.5 wins (-120)
Guardians Under 82 wins (-115)
Pirates Under 77 wins (-110)
In this clip, Joe goes through his rationale on his Guardians and Pirates bets.
kane
EOG master
There are some metrics that indicate they were lucky last year to have the record they did, I've seen a few different people talk about it
And they make contact, which I know you like (I do too). Pitching coach Willis is good with reclamation projects. I can't bet under for them. Esp with KC and Detroit, both who figure to have some regression. The White Sox figure to win a decent amount more than last year, but hard to see them NOT losing at least 100 games.