Re: NBA for opening week
Good Luck
Good Luck
NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
thanks, I hate the beginning of the year in the NBA, need all the luck I can get. hard to tell if poor performances are just poor performances or abominable teams this early. I'm hearing two different things on Memphis/Orlando, probably going to pass on that game.
denver -2 for 1.1%
I got a little on -1.5, but I don't think it's a good idea to wait much longer.
I'm hearing that the Cl***** are a fade-away team right now, I won't mention their name b/c I've lost more for and against that team than any other, Bengals are a distant 2nd. I'm less than 40% winners lifetime on the el lay cripples.
thanks, I hate the beginning of the year in the NBA, need all the luck I can get. hard to tell if poor performances are just poor performances or abominable teams this early. I'm hearing two different things on Memphis/Orlando, probably going to pass on that game.
denver -2 for 1.1%
I got a little on -1.5, but I don't think it's a good idea to wait much longer.
I'm hearing that the Cl***** are a fade-away team right now, I won't mention their name b/c I've lost more for and against that team than any other, Bengals are a distant 2nd. I'm less than 40% winners lifetime on the el lay cripples.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
thanks, good luck to you to.
Denver over 198 for 1.1%
same to 199.
thanks, good luck to you to.
Denver over 198 for 1.1%
same to 199.
Re: NBA for opening week
Good Luck
Good Luck
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
depressed after Texas loss. from our vantage point it looked like Gideon had that late INT...everyone celebrating....obviously it was dropped. Congrats to Tech. last thing I want to do is look at NCAA football right now.
Charlotte +6 for .6%
not very many 6's left, same at +5, .5% at +4
depressed after Texas loss. from our vantage point it looked like Gideon had that late INT...everyone celebrating....obviously it was dropped. Congrats to Tech. last thing I want to do is look at NCAA football right now.
Charlotte +6 for .6%
not very many 6's left, same at +5, .5% at +4
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
NY +7.5 for .6% already bet it l
NY +8 for .5% l
ML +275 for .3% l
miami -5 for .6% w
Miami over 205.5 for .8% l
Portland +2.5 for .8% w
denver -2 for 1.1% w
Denver over 198 for 1.1% w
NY/PHI over 213.5 for .8% l
10/31 results
+3.27 -3.0
Iverson traded to Detroit for Billups and McDyess
NY +7.5 for .6% already bet it l
NY +8 for .5% l
ML +275 for .3% l
miami -5 for .6% w
Miami over 205.5 for .8% l
Portland +2.5 for .8% w
denver -2 for 1.1% w
Denver over 198 for 1.1% w
NY/PHI over 213.5 for .8% l
10/31 results
+3.27 -3.0
Iverson traded to Detroit for Billups and McDyess
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
Sac +12 for .9%
ML +700 for .3%
same at 11.5, the way I see it this has a lot of value this early in the year, we will probably look back and wonder how 76er was ever a 10+ favorite over anyone.
Last game Sac was blown out by ORL, but if you look at that boxscore it was a lot closer than the final score, difference was offensive rebounding, plus ORL shot 55% in that game (SAC 52%). PHI lost their last game after shooting 59% vs NY. It's fairly widely known that fading a team in their next game after they shoot 55% or better is +EV. I'm actually discounting this b/c PHI only shot 41% vs ATL (things tend to regress toward a median) but they shot terribly 34.5% in their opener. Sac may be THAT bad, but I see a lot of value in the ML, less than 4-1 for sure.
Sac +12 for .9%
ML +700 for .3%
same at 11.5, the way I see it this has a lot of value this early in the year, we will probably look back and wonder how 76er was ever a 10+ favorite over anyone.
Last game Sac was blown out by ORL, but if you look at that boxscore it was a lot closer than the final score, difference was offensive rebounding, plus ORL shot 55% in that game (SAC 52%). PHI lost their last game after shooting 59% vs NY. It's fairly widely known that fading a team in their next game after they shoot 55% or better is +EV. I'm actually discounting this b/c PHI only shot 41% vs ATL (things tend to regress toward a median) but they shot terribly 34.5% in their opener. Sac may be THAT bad, but I see a lot of value in the ML, less than 4-1 for sure.
Re: NBA for opening week
what you gotta say about this junkman being that your on the sixers?
what you gotta say about this junkman being that your on the sixers?
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I can understand anyone being on Philly the way Sacramento has looked lately. I believe he uses a computer, and most math models would list the 6ers to cover 13. The way I see it I'm taking a shot that Sacramento makes adjustments and the 6ers haven't exactly been world beaters in 2 of their losses. Philadelphia has also been one of those teams for several years that you take as an underdog but don't want to lay points with. The Kings may be a team to fade all year, but this early I like to take shots on somewhat soft numbers especially on ML's I see being fairly robust. A 2 loss team laying 12 pts? Sure they can lose by 30, but I think at least once out of 5 they win SU with it being so early in the year.
I can understand anyone being on Philly the way Sacramento has looked lately. I believe he uses a computer, and most math models would list the 6ers to cover 13. The way I see it I'm taking a shot that Sacramento makes adjustments and the 6ers haven't exactly been world beaters in 2 of their losses. Philadelphia has also been one of those teams for several years that you take as an underdog but don't want to lay points with. The Kings may be a team to fade all year, but this early I like to take shots on somewhat soft numbers especially on ML's I see being fairly robust. A 2 loss team laying 12 pts? Sure they can lose by 30, but I think at least once out of 5 they win SU with it being so early in the year.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
back from 1st break since the middle of last summer. NBA has been bad so far, but this year is different than the last 3-4. Might take awhile to get on top of things, but I am well aware that one of the strongest options on the opposite side of the counter is the ability to pass. Might have to turn from sniper (.8% on large volume)to big game hunter (1.5%+ on less total plays) for a bit, it's more fun but usually less profitable. In NCAA football that is what I'm doing for sure.
PHX -11.5 for .8%
lot of points, but Memphis is on 4th in 6 on road, pretty similar to PHX and with Houston up for them had to discount. Team that wins in the NBA covers over 80% of the time...
back from 1st break since the middle of last summer. NBA has been bad so far, but this year is different than the last 3-4. Might take awhile to get on top of things, but I am well aware that one of the strongest options on the opposite side of the counter is the ability to pass. Might have to turn from sniper (.8% on large volume)to big game hunter (1.5%+ on less total plays) for a bit, it's more fun but usually less profitable. In NCAA football that is what I'm doing for sure.
PHX -11.5 for .8%
lot of points, but Memphis is on 4th in 6 on road, pretty similar to PHX and with Houston up for them had to discount. Team that wins in the NBA covers over 80% of the time...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
11/10 results
PHX -11.5 for .8% l
NJ +9 for .9% w .82
ML +395 for .3% l
2h OKC +9 for .4% l
ML +425 for .1% l
2h Orlando -5 for .3% l
2h Orlando under 95.5 for .2% l
2h NJ/MIA over 93 for .6% w .54
2h Boston -4 for 3rd q for .5% w .45
+1.81 -2.1 = -.29
with NFL I'll take it, figured I'd get both long ML's, woke up to nada.
SA/NY under 198 for 1.1%
11/10 results
PHX -11.5 for .8% l
NJ +9 for .9% w .82
ML +395 for .3% l
2h OKC +9 for .4% l
ML +425 for .1% l
2h Orlando -5 for .3% l
2h Orlando under 95.5 for .2% l
2h NJ/MIA over 93 for .6% w .54
2h Boston -4 for 3rd q for .5% w .45
+1.81 -2.1 = -.29
with NFL I'll take it, figured I'd get both long ML's, woke up to nada.
SA/NY under 198 for 1.1%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
thanks.
totals have been bad for me so far this year, so I'm laying off them but I do like this one, discounted b/c both teams have rest.
MIN/GS over 204.5 for .8%
thanks.
totals have been bad for me so far this year, so I'm laying off them but I do like this one, discounted b/c both teams have rest.
MIN/GS over 204.5 for .8%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
there are several more that I 'don't understand.'
and I'm working on furthering my education today so that I may understand where the hell they get some of these numbers. After 10 games or so it usually starts rolling along. 3rd in 4 is a little more of an edge after the first month. Players aren't getting too tired yet this early in the year.
NO/LA over 194.5/195 for .8%
discounted b/c I'm betting the side as well, and may buy back if it moves enough.
and the public will be all over this 'over' and backing the Lakers as well
the public will be all over ATL, not sure how big of a need it will be b/c fairly sure most sharp action will be on Boston. I'm probably backing ATL.
there are several more that I 'don't understand.'
and I'm working on furthering my education today so that I may understand where the hell they get some of these numbers. After 10 games or so it usually starts rolling along. 3rd in 4 is a little more of an edge after the first month. Players aren't getting too tired yet this early in the year.
NO/LA over 194.5/195 for .8%
discounted b/c I'm betting the side as well, and may buy back if it moves enough.
and the public will be all over this 'over' and backing the Lakers as well
the public will be all over ATL, not sure how big of a need it will be b/c fairly sure most sharp action will be on Boston. I'm probably backing ATL.