NFL Week 12

V

Valuist

EOG Master
3 games on Thursday. Have to be ready for the quick turnaround.

I know everyone is down on Baltimore. But IMO, in this season, with basically little or no HFA, Pitt should not be higher than -3. I took Baltimore +3 1/2 (-117) at Bookmaker. People forget that in that November 1 game, the Ravens dominated the line of scrimmage, outrushing the Steelers 265 to 48. The Ravens got into the red zone 5 times, but the Steelers won the turnover battle, 4 to 1. The Ravens also were penalized 9 times for 110 yards while the Steelers only 3 for 30. What QBs have the Steelers faced recently? "Juice" Lutan today, rookie Joe Burrow last week, and some guy named Gilbert, who almost beat them in Dallas. I'm not convinced the Steelers' ground attack is back after cracking the 100 yard mark for the first time in a month. Steelers rush numbers each week since week 3: 169, 136, 129, 94, 48, 46,44, and 106 today.

Houston opens up as a favorite in Detroit? Curious to see if Golladay and Swift could be back. They clearly were lacking playmakers today, but Detroit IS used to playing the early game on Thanksgiving day; Houston isn't. Houston isn't going anywhere; they got a big win today, in their minds, over a shaky New England team. I have a hard time imagining this Houston team bringing a focused and solid effort this week.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Yet another Ravens-Steelers game where the home team is favored by a field goal or thereabouts.

The Steelers are 10-0 for the first time in team history.

I was surprised to read the best previous start in team history was the 1978 Steelers, who started 7-0 and eventually went on to beat the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII.
 
I

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
Valuist is on to something. Might be the spot to take Baltimore. Pit WR Juju Smith-Schuster might have a problem with his ankle/toe on a short week even if it isnt serious. I know everybody is banged up but Joe Haden really is. I'm assuming Ravens DT Brandon Williams will be ready to play Thursday as well. I'm also assuming Baltimore will throw the kitchen sink at everybody the rest of the season.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
IWishIWasAPro said:
Valuist is on to something. Might be the spot to take Baltimore. Pit WR Juju Smith-Schuster might have a problem with his ankle/toe on a short week even if it isnt serious. I know everybody is banged up but Joe Haden really is. I'm assuming Ravens DT Brandon Williams will be ready to play Thursday as well. I'm also assuming Baltimore will throw the kitchen sink at everybody the rest of the season.
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juJu has been their third best WR this year. Don’t laugh but he’s pretty replaceable right now. From the Ravens end - they just played a very physical OT game, now have to travel to play another one in a short week. I don’t really like Lamar this year, the league has figured him out. I think the under is the play, depending on number.

GB will be in teasers for me vs Chicago. I like taking teams off of bye, it’s still a bad spot for Chicago. No idea who the Chi QB will be, but we know who ARod is, and coming off a loss to boot.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
juJu has been their third best WR this year. Don’t laugh but he’s pretty replaceable right now. From the Ravens end - they just played a very physical OT game, now have to travel to play another one in a short week. I don’t really like Lamar this year, the league has figured him out. I think the under is the play, depending on number.

GB will be in teasers for me vs Chicago. I like taking teams off of bye, it’s still a bad spot for Chicago. No idea who the Chi QB will be, but we know who ARod is, and coming off a loss to boot.
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The Bears obviously have a bad situation at QB, but that should be factored into the line. But from strictly a spot perspective, I think its a better spot for the Bears. Bears off a bye, and Green Bay off an OT game before a short week. Will I be on the Bears? Doubtful but I won't be on GB either.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I hear how Philly was (again) one of the heavier bet teams. I don't understand the love for this team. They suck. I don't care what players are coming back, those players aren't what they used to be. They are so 2017.

Having said that, have the Browns become the new Bears? Taking a weak schedule and piling up a bunch of ugly wins. Hard to see them winning a playoff game. They've beaten Cincy twice, Washington, Dallas, Indy (the only quality win), Houston and Philly. Not exactly a murderer's row.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Steelers look good but .. did not play KC or NFC very good teams. I need more info that won't come till playoffs.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Viejo Dinosaur said:
Detroit quit today....will be interesting to see how they react with possibly a new coach.....Patricia might get his walking papers tomorrow....
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Not likely. Having a Thursday game saves him. He might get it Friday, or after Thursday's game when they will have over a week to make the move before the next game. Lions don't firs coaches during the season so he might last. Sorta like with the J-E-S-T JEST! JEST! JEST! No reason to fire Gase NOW! Keep him and hope they go 1-15 and get the #1 pick so they can draft Trevor Lawrence. Bring in someone new and they could "mess" things up by winning to try and keep the job for next season..
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Detroit will go balls-out in the Thanksgiving Game after Sunday's performance. The score could have been worse, Carolina threw two ints in the EZ. I'll be on Detroit 1H most likely.
 
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Valuist said:
3 games on Thursday. Have to be ready for the quick turnaround.

I know everyone is down on Baltimore. But IMO, in this season, with basically little or no HFA, Pitt should not be higher than -3. I took Baltimore +3 1/2 (-117) at Bookmaker. People forget that in that November 1 game, the Ravens dominated the line of scrimmage, outrushing the Steelers 265 to 48. The Ravens got into the red zone 5 times, but the Steelers won the turnover battle, 4 to 1. The Ravens also were penalized 9 times for 110 yards while the Steelers only 3 for 30. What QBs have the Steelers faced recently? "Juice" Lutan today, rookie Joe Burrow last week, and some guy named Gilbert, who almost beat them in Dallas. I'm not convinced the Steelers' ground attack is back after cracking the 100 yard mark for the first time in a month. Steelers rush numbers each week since week 3: 169, 136, 129, 94, 48, 46,44, and 106 today.

Houston opens up as a favorite in Detroit? Curious to see if Golladay and Swift could be back. They clearly were lacking playmakers today, but Detroit IS used to playing the early game on Thanksgiving day; Houston isn't. Houston isn't going anywhere; they got a big win today, in their minds, over a shaky New England team. I have a hard time imagining this Houston team bringing a focused and solid effort this week.
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Lions shutout by Panthers last week
Teams shutout have a great record ATS in next start last 5 years
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Valuist said:
The Bears obviously have a bad situation at QB, but that should be factored into the line. But from strictly a spot perspective, I think its a better spot for the Bears. Bears off a bye, and Green Bay off an OT game before a short week. Will I be on the Bears? Doubtful but I won't be on GB either.
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Good chance Hicks is out for Chicago also. He’s the most important player on the D.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Ray Luca said:
Lions shutout by Panthers last week
Teams shutout have a great record ATS in next start last 5 years
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I'm just not sure the Texans are 6-7 points better than the Lions on a neutral field and that is what this number says. I am 100% sure Texans are not 10 points better than the Lions in a game played in Texass and that is what this line says
 
E$

E$

EOG Dedicated
winkyduck said:
Not likely. Having a Thursday game saves him. He might get it Friday, or after Thursday's game when they will have over a week to make the move before the next game. Lions don't firs coaches during the season so he might last. Sorta like with the J-E-S-T JEST! JEST! JEST! No reason to fire Gase NOW! Keep him and hope they go 1-15 and get the #1 pick so they can draft Trevor Lawrence. Bring in someone new and they could "mess" things up by winning to try and keep the job for next season..
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I am just curious, who is the Jets 1 win going to come against?

I am just hoping it’s not the Dolphins this week
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Finally got some bets down.
Lions +3 is the best and only thing going on Thursday. I've gotten burned playing the Lions plus the points on Thanksgiving morning more than once. But it looks like the definite right side. It'll be interesting to see if the Lions fight for Patricia's job, but I think they will.
Jaguars +7 (-120) is a pile of junk, but seems like a flat spot for Cleveland, and there's going to be no public money on Jax after the way they played last week.
Patriots +2.5 seems decent, especially in the first half. It's hard to tell how good the Patriots really are, but have a hunch they'll finish the year strong.
And my pick of the week comes from my totals guy, the under in the Bills-Chargers.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
E$ said:
I am just curious, who is the Jets 1 win going to come against?

I am just hoping it’s not the Dolphins this week
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So I think we can all agree it probably won't be a road game meaning losses at: Seattle and Rams...even though we know NYJ will spend the week on the West Coast after the game especially since the Rams game is a Saturday.

Home games: Miami, Vegas, Cleveland. That Miami game this Sunday - T-giving week - is a nice spot. Doubt Da Raiduhs lose. It would be soooooo "Browns-like" to lose at NYJ the day after Santa comes

If not - I look at the last game of the season: AT Pats. Normally I would say Pats win easy. But if the J-E-S-T JEST! JEST! JEST! are 0-15 I could see them winning.

I don't know where but I do think they win a game

All I do know is my: Jets Un6.5 +105..............CASHED! Might be the earliest I have ever cashed one.
 
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jimmythegreek

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Chargers are a lot better than their record indicates. All 7 losses within one score. Herbert certainly not afraid to let it all out there slinging it, but needs to play a cleaner game against Buffalos defense. Allen may have to continue to turn it up passing for yards in bunches, with no running game to lean on as McCoy has virtually been a no show. Same with Singletary and Moss. I'm tempted to buy and grab 6.
 
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FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
jimmythegreek said:
Chargers are a lot better than their record indicates. All 7 losses within one score. Herbert certainly not afraid to let it all out there slinging it, but needs to play a cleaner game against Buffalos defense. Allen may have to continue to turn it up passing for yards in bunches, with no running game to lean on as McCoy has virtually been a no show. Same with Singletary and Moss. I'm tempted to buy and grab 6.
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I’m teasing Buffalo with GB personally. I’ve watched a lot of LA this year, special teams have killed them. Eckler won’t return until next week.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
winkyduck said:
I'm just not sure the Texans are 6-7 points better than the Lions on a neutral field and that is what this number says. I am 100% sure Texans are not 10 points better than the Lions in a game played in Texass and that is what this line says
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Home field, at most, is worth about a point, this year. I do agree Houston is overpriced.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
winkyduck said:
I'm just not sure the Texans are 6-7 points better than the Lions on a neutral field and that is what this number says. I am 100% sure Texans are not 10 points better than the Lions in a game played in Texass and that is what this line says
Click to expand...

Winky, you're giving the Lions the normal 3 points for HFA, I think that's too much to give the home teams this year, I've been giving the home teams 1-1.5 points
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
kane said:
Winky, you're giving the Lions the normal 3 points for HFA, I think that's too much to give the home teams this year, I've been giving the home teams 1-1.5 points
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Denver on the higher end because of altitude and cold weather teams hosting dome teams, but thats it. GB has snoozed thru some home games without the 12th man.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Houston in their 3rd road game in 18 days.

I caught a break with the postponement of the Ravens/Steelers. Bet Balt at +3 1/2 early. Bet now cancelled.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
jimmythegreek said:
Chargers are a lot better than their record indicates. All 7 losses within one score. Herbert certainly not afraid to let it all out there slinging it, but needs to play a cleaner game against Buffalos defense. Allen may have to continue to turn it up passing for yards in bunches, with no running game to lean on as McCoy has virtually been a no show. Same with Singletary and Moss. I'm tempted to buy and grab 6.
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they go into 4 min offense in the 3rd qtr with any lead, this is why they choke so much
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
TheGuesser said:
They weren't loyal to Coach Caldwell, who finished 36-28 as Lions Coach, and was fired after back to back 9-7 seasons.
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Which was curious as they always have been. I think they saw the opportunity to get a Belichek guy and it failed.

you’re correct Valuist, the McCaskeys are like that. They only move when they get embarrassed by the Packers.
 
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