NFL Week 17 discussion, plays, and whatever else

kane

kane

EOG master
Typically I like to get my plays in early in the week, by the time I wake up Sunday morning 90% of my plays are in. However this week is different, I'm gonna wait until I know who's in and who's out for some of these teams. The last week of the season I like to fade the teams that "need" to win, the lines are always inflated so there's good value to be found
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
I like betting the teams that both need the win. Not many of them. I like dallas played it late . I had them favored up to -3.5
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
flipping channels saw colin cowherd interviewing James Harrison......when talking about the upcoming browns game cowherd said the browns were favored.....the look on harrisons face was a look of disbelief and c'mon man
 
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A

alfie

EOG Dedicated
kane said:
Even without Ben, 10 looks like a lot, will give Pitts a hard look
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what do you do at qb? at least for this year tua is not the guy.......

miami has #3 pick in the draft and some are saying they need a qb
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Zero chance they take a QB, Tua is their guy, he's looked good at times and bad at times, but he's their guy going forward. Hard to judge a rookie QB especially when he has no weapons, love having the Texans first and second round picks, 4 picks in the first two rounds should yield them a couple of weapons for Tua
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
i disagree with tua.. I think he is a bust.. charlie ward. fitz had no problem with the same players. Tua is solid for 5 innings.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
MrTop said:
i disagree with tua.. I think he is a bust.. charlie ward. fitz had no problem with the same players. Tua is solid for 5 innings.
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Didn't Peyton Manning throw 28 INTs as a rookie? I can't declare a QB a bust in year one. Have to give him another year, and I don't think he was that bad. Yes Fitz won that game for them in Vegas, but lets judge Tua a year from now.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Valuist said:
Didn't Peyton Manning throw 28 INTs as a rookie? I can't declare a QB a bust in year one. Have to give him another year, and I don't think he was that bad. Yes Fitz won that game for them in Vegas, but lets judge Tua a year from now.
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i know dallas did bad with aikman .. they can still win with tua.. not so good QB have won SB
 
kane

kane

EOG master
MrTop said:
i disagree with tua.. I think he is a bust.. charlie ward. fitz had no problem with the same players. Tua is solid for 5 innings.
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Go look at the rookie season of some of the best to ever play, judging a QB off his rookie season isn't fair, and if you think Tua is a bust, I assume you haven't seen him, he's struggled at times, but to call him a bust is crazy talk. Look no further than Miami's opponent, what was the thought on Josh Allen before the season compared to now, you think Diggs has helped his growth a little, can't compare Fitz to Tua, Fitz has been around forever, Tua's just getting started, next year you'll see a better version of Tua
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
kane said:
Go look at the rookie season of some of the best to ever play, judging a QB off his rookie season isn't fair, and if you think Tua is a bust, I assume you haven't seen him, he's struggled at times, but to call him a bust is crazy talk. Look no further than Miami's opponent, what was the thought on Josh Allen before the season compared to now, you think Diggs has helped his growth a little, can't compare Fitz to Tua, Fitz has been around forever, Tua's just getting started, next year you'll see a better version of Tua
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and the fish could be very well be better which could help him. I just don't like him. My scouts are the same ones that said sell on swarber and happ. Not buy. They said the same with sell on mitch... I could be right.. Maybe wrong. I just don;t have that feel for him. I still will bet the fish if i like the line with tua.. I don't put my marbles on the QB.. i look at the team with the QB
 
kane

kane

EOG master
MrTop said:
and the fish could be very well be better which could help him. I just don't like him. My scouts are the same ones that said sell on swarber and happ. Not buy. They said the same with sell on mitch... I could be right.. Maybe wrong. I just don;t have that feel for him. I still will bet the fish if i like the line with tua.. I don't put my marbles on the QB.. i look at the team with the QB
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If you have any hesitation with Tua, fine I get it, but to call him a bust, I think that's a loaded word. It's hard for me to call any athlete a bust based off of his rookie year, and remember, there was no preseason and limited practices, going into next season between the draft and FA's Miami will absolutely add a couple of receivers and running backs, let's see how he plays with some weapons around him, and one other thing, Miami has been starting three rookies on their offensive line, that makes things even tougher
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
kane said:
Typically I like to get my plays in early in the week, by the time I wake up Sunday morning 90% of my plays are in. However this week is different, I'm gonna wait until I know who's in and who's out for some of these teams. The last week of the season I like to fade the teams that "need" to win, the lines are always inflated so there's good value to be found
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I have made a lot of money on Week 17s (or 16s before the byes) and its almost always betting games where neither team has a need element. Love games like the Broncos this week. Raiders blow a game in an almost Chargers like fashion to lose out on a playoff shot. That's a recipe for lets get this season over with. I can't see too many smiling faces getting on that plane this week. Meanwhile the Broncos continue to fight on both sides of the ball despite the growing pains and injuries. I think this is an easy win. Unfortunately with 7 spots now the games with two nothing to play for teams are much fewer. I do think the Chargers are a solid bet too, the Chiefs are going to treat it like an exhibition, Chargers are trying to finish really strong.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
This bust talk is so dumb for QBs. No one looks that good year one at the position. I mean shit, Herbert is having a "historic" year for a rookie, its just meh middle of the pack for the NFL this year (#14 QBR rating which gives him credit for running plays). That should tell you all you need to know about what to expect. The problem was they felt the need to force Tua into the lineup when they had a playoff team without him. Now its just adding pressure. Stop the nonsense, play Fitz and see where you go. Tua has gotten plenty of work in, you know what needs to be worked on for next year and future years.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
kane said:
If you have any hesitation with Tua, fine I get it, but to call him a bust, I think that's a loaded word. It's hard for me to call any athlete a bust based off of his rookie year, and remember, there was no preseason and limited practices, going into next season between the draft and FA's Miami will absolutely add a couple of receivers and running backs, let's see how he plays with some weapons around him, and one other thing, Miami has been starting three rookies on their offensive line, that makes things even tougher
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i am a tough scout. :cool: but i traded babe ruth too
 
kane

kane

EOG master
WildBill said:
I have made a lot of money on Week 17s (or 16s before the byes) and its almost always betting games where neither team has a need element. Love games like the Broncos this week. Raiders blow a game in an almost Chargers like fashion to lose out on a playoff shot. That's a recipe for lets get this season over with. I can't see too many smiling faces getting on that plane this week. Meanwhile the Broncos continue to fight on both sides of the ball despite the growing pains and injuries. I think this is an easy win. Unfortunately with 7 spots now the games with two nothing to play for teams are much fewer. I do think the Chargers are a solid bet too, the Chiefs are going to treat it like an exhibition, Chargers are trying to finish really strong.
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As usual you make some good points, yeah I can see the Raiders not showing up after what's been a tough stretch for them, the demoralizing loss against Miami had to be tough on them, and if not for the amazing collapse by the Jets D on the last play the Raiders would be looking at a 6 game losing streak, it's interesting they've taken money so far, the line has shifted in their favor, do we know who in or our for Denver? There has to be a reason why LV is now favored. I have their win total Under, so essentially I have the Broncos pick, no need for me to play the game. Any thoughts on the Jets over the Pats, at this point I can't see where NE gives a shit and their offense is broken, and for as much as we always joke about the Jets, if not for that amazing Hail Mary they gave up, they would actually be 3-1 SU in their last 4 games, they've shown some fight and haven't quit
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
kane said:
As usual you make some good points, yeah I can see the Raiders not showing up after what's been a tough stretch for them, the demoralizing loss against Miami had to be tough on them, and if not for the amazing collapse by the Jets D on the last play the Raiders would be looking at a 6 game losing streak, it's interesting they've taken money so far, the line has shifted in their favor, do we know who in or our for Denver? There has to be a reason why LV is now favored. I have their win total Under, so essentially I have the Broncos pick, no need for me to play the game. Any thoughts on the Jets over the Pats, at this point I can't see where NE gives a shit and their offense is broken, and for as much as we always joke about the Jets, if not for that amazing Hail Mary they gave up, they would actually be 3-1 SU in their last 4 games, they've shown some fight and haven't quit
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I took the Jets at 4.5 yesterday. I'm a little worried about this one because I think Billy is going to be a monster with them this week and point out he'll clean out the lockers of anyone who doesn't show up well prepared and leaves it on the field. I thought that was the effort we would have seen last night and then the Jets get a team with less fight in them, but it didn't work out that way. Like the number I got, but the situation changed IMO.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
As for the move on the Raiders, pure numbers I think. Sagarin says LV -2.5 so the line move kind of makes sense for those who are betting purely on the numbers.

Doesn't seem like any new injuries on the Broncos other than Hamler may not recover from concussion. Around here of course all kinds of nonsense about how Lock's playing for his career, Fangio and Elway need to get fired, they need to move up to get some QB in the draft, yadda yadda yadda. Fan bases are so hilarious, they literally think the obvious solution is right there that they thought of and that if not for Elway being the dumbest human alive it would have happened. I think everyone involved in pro football is smart enough to ignore all the nonsense and realize almost no way Lock isn't starting next year and that the coaching staff is mostly coming back intact. This game is just a chance for a lot of guys to put something on tape that will get them paid next year because they are so many steps down the depth chart in a lot of spots right now.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
WildBill said:
This bust talk is so dumb for QBs. No one looks that good year one at the position. I mean shit, Herbert is having a "historic" year for a rookie, its just meh middle of the pack for the NFL this year (#14 QBR rating which gives him credit for running plays). That should tell you all you need to know about what to expect. The problem was they felt the need to force Tua into the lineup when they had a playoff team without him. Now its just adding pressure. Stop the nonsense, play Fitz and see where you go. Tua has gotten plenty of work in, you know what needs to be worked on for next year and future years.
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When it comes to which one should start, it's an interesting topic, and one that gets a lot of play down here. Here's my take, I'm all in on Bryan Flores, I think he should win coach of the year, but regardless, the job he's done with this team in two years is pretty remarkable, last year Miami's defense gave up the most points in the league, this year they've given up the fewest, how does that even happen? And they only had one player make the pro bowl, it's not like they're loaded with talent, it's due to Flores's schemes, they guy is a defensive mastermind, and he's proven to be a really good head coach, In have faith in the decisions he makes, I don't always have to agree, but I have enough respect for him to give him the benefit of the doubt, so if he thinks Tua should get the start in Buffalo, I'm fine with it, obviously with so much at stake he'll have a short leash, and I hope knwing he could get yanked at any time doesn't mess him up in the head, but for me I trust Flores until he gives me a reason not to
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
kane said:
When it comes to which one should start, it's an interesting topic, and one that gets a lot of play down here. Here's my take, I'm all in on Bryan Flores, I think he should win coach of the year, but regardless, the job he's done with this team in two years is pretty remarkable, last year Miami's defense gave up the most points in the league, this year they've given up the fewest, how does that even happen? And they only had one player make the pro bowl, it's not like they're loaded with talent, it's due to Flores's schemes, they guy is a defensive mastermind, and he's proven to be a really good head coach, In have faith in the decisions he makes, I don't always have to agree, but I have enough respect for him to give him the benefit of the doubt, so if he thinks Tua should get the start in Buffalo, I'm fine with it, obviously with so much at stake he'll have a short leash, and I hope knwing he could get yanked at any time doesn't mess him up in the head, but for me I trust Flores until he gives me a reason not to
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Agree on Flores. Defensive scheme is solid and he's working with a personnel approach that is top notch. The trades of almost anything that could get an asset back before last year were brilliant, I could see the upside when many on here were crying out about how they were the worst team in the history of the NFL. Remember when people said they could be +30 against the Patriots? LOL This year it feels like they are playing a little above their weight but that's often what happens with good coaches. They can pick Tua if they want, but to me what that says is we dont' think we are truly competitive in the playoffs right now, so this is all about still building for the future. Savvy fans can see that and I get that they should be pissed, but its all planned so they will stick to it.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
WildBill said:
I took the Jets at 4.5 yesterday. I'm a little worried about this one because I think Billy is going to be a monster with them this week and point out he'll clean out the lockers of anyone who doesn't show up well prepared and leaves it on the field. I thought that was the effort we would have seen last night and then the Jets get a team with less fight in them, but it didn't work out that way. Like the number I got, but the situation changed IMO.
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4.5 is a nice number, if you decide to get off it, there's potentially a nice middle opportunity depending on where the line goes, it must be a weird situation for Hoodie, I mean for the past 20 years his only concern this time of year is how much his starters should play and if he sits Brady or not, hard to know how he'll react in a spot he's never been in. I would never tell anyone what they should do, but to me 4.5 with a team that's been playing hard looks pretty good against a team that might no show, and that Patriot offense, good lord, GL with whatver you do
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Bet today: Titans-Texans under 57 @ Circa
106 Bears +5.5, W.A.
Very strong leans to Detroit +7, and Bengals +13. Will probably bet them later depending on what the lines do.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Valuist said:
Why not keep riding the Jets at +3?
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I agree.

It's Jets or pass for me.

Will it be Newton or Stidham at quarterback for the Pats?

Not that it really matters from a pointspread perspective.

Both the Jets and Patriots are 6-9 against the spread this season despite the Jets opening the season 0-6 ATS.
 
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FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Does anyone really think the Bears will win? It feels like Lucy pulling the football back from Charlie Brown. The Bears rarely beat better QBs.

The Jets-NE game sure feels like a great under. Heck, this game could be played in 2:15.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
John Kelly said:
I agree.

It's Jets or pass for me.

Will it be Newton or Stidham at quarterback for the Pats?

Not that it really matters from a pointspread perspective.

Both the Jets and Patriots are 6-9 against the spread this season despite the Jets opening the season 0-6 ATS.
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They've now won their last 2, and should've won 3 of their last 4. Only dud was as 16.5 dogs in Seattle, the week after that monumental collapse vs the Raiders.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
Does anyone really think the Bears will win? It feels like Lucy pulling the football back from Charlie Brown. The Bears rarely beat better QBs.

The Jets-NE game sure feels like a great under. Heck, this game could be played in 2:15.
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Have we seen this before with GB/Bears? Packers will waltz to a 24-3 easy halftime lead, then sleep walk thru the second half as Mitch generates two meaningless TDs in a 27-20 GB final.

The Bears recent offensive outbursts have been against very poor defenses; Jacksonville, Houston, Detroit and Minnesota. The Vikings YTD may not be bottom 5 defensively, but the week after the Bears they let the Saints put up 52 on them.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Chargers -3.5? I'll pass on the basis of coaching alone. I thought this one would be closer to pick. I do like the Cardinals +1. Not that Goff is so important and that McVay can't scheme up something to cover up for his loss, but its clear from the Rams game log they rarely win when they don't get at least a decent QB outing. When they lose he's giving them little and I can't expect much out of a QB that's never been in an NFL game.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
No Dalvin Cook for the Vikings in Week 17.

His father passed away unexpectedly.

Dalvin's father was only 46.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Aaron Jones could be a decent under candidate. He's dealing with two injuries; he had a bad toe going into the Tenn game, then suffered a hip injury that caused him to miss part of the remainder. He did return to rip off a 59 yard run, helping those of us who bet him over his rush total. But he clearly stepped out of bounds and was gifted an extra 30 yards or so when Tenn didn't challenge. Backup Dillon ran for over 120 yards and looked good. I see no reason for Jones to get a heavy workload, with the playoffs coming, and Dillon more than capable.
 
Bucky

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Teams talk about the best player available in the draft and not so much drafting for a need. Dolphins and Packers have other needs that they did not address. Picks in the first and second round need to be starting and making a difference.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
WildBill said:
Chargers -3.5? I'll pass on the basis of coaching alone. I thought this one would be closer to pick. I do like the Cardinals +1. Not that Goff is so important and that McVay can't scheme up something to cover up for his loss, but its clear from the Rams game log they rarely win when they don't get at least a decent QB outing. When they lose he's giving them little and I can't expect much out of a QB that's never been in an NFL game.
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Cards bet just keeps getting stronger. Kupp and Akers are the kinds of players a rookie QB would need, safety blanket receivers to check down to. Realistically Arizona has to shit the bed badly or have a Covid outbreak not to come out with a W here. Rams probably just thinking we have to hope GB takes care of business and we get these guys back for the playoffs.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Bucky said:
Teams talk about the best player available in the draft and not so much drafting for a need. Dolphins and Packers have other needs that they did not address. Picks in the first and second round need to be starting and making a difference.
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The Dolphins needed a QB, so they took one, they did what everyone expected. As far as the Packers, yeah, they could have used another player besides the QB they took, you can criticize GB if you want, but not Miami
 
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