Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

#47
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#49
Harry Tompson Center
c/o Immaculate Conception Church
130 Baronne Street
New Orleans, LA 70112


The Harry Tompson Center is a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization, which means all donations you make to help us serve the homeless community of New Orleans are tax deductible. Our tax identification number is # 20-1548026
 
#50
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
An incredibly diverse set of opinions.

But we all seem to agree that it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better....
 
#51
Harry Tompson Center
c/o Immaculate Conception Church
130 Baronne Street
New Orleans, LA 70112


The Harry Tompson Center is a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization, which means all donations you make to help us serve the homeless community of New Orleans are tax deductible. Our tax identification number is # 20-1548026
I'm quite familiar with them. They do thankless work in one of the worst homeless situations outside of California or Las Vegas.

I wonder how Z knows about them.
 
#60
The cases will never be known because 90% of the people that get infected will never be tested.

But my offical prediction will be 6,300,000(confirmed cases) 770,000 deaths.
 
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#64
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Dell Dude: 55,555/777
BigDeemer: 240,000/9,900
ERBtheGREAT: 24,000,000/480,000
Valuist: 5,000,000/50,000
 
#65
I'm imposing an entry deadline of Wednesday, March 19 at 11:59 PM U.S. Central Daylight Time. That way no one can sandbag this with a last-second guess.
Since I had the right date and wrong day of the week, the deadline is Thursday at 11:59 PM CT, or a little less than 24 hours from now.
 
#69
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Dell Dude: 55,555/777
BigDeemer: 240,000/9,900
ERBtheGREAT: 24,000,000/480,000
Valuist: 5,000,000/50,000
What was wrong with my entry?
 
#73
RULES:

Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths x 25))

As an example, let's say you predict 1,000,000 cases and 10,000 deaths,

Actual number comes in at 1,150,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Your score would be 150,000 + (2,000 x 25) for a total final score of 200,000.

If ComptrBob is willing, I will have him verify all results.
This will have grading issues.
I'll be glad to do the grading, however I think I need to clarify/modify the formula given by EJD.

Restatement 1, add paren after deaths: Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25

First, his example, the score is 1000000 -1150000 + (10000 -12000) x 25 = -200,000.

Restatement 2, use absolute value of the differences so score is always non-negative: Grading formula thus is abs(difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + abs(difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25

Deadline is Thursday 11:59PM CT, thus 9:59PM PT tonight, 12:59AM ET, Friday morning.

Will look for EJD's concurrence.
 
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#74
Believe you're right -- I sometimes add a noon or midnight reference to such deadlines to help the reading comprehension and/or math-challenged such as myself.
 
#76
I'll be glad to do the grading, however I think I need to clarify/modify the formula given by ELD.

Restatement 1, add paren after deaths: Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25

First, his example, the score is 1000000 -1150000 + (10000 -12000) x 25 = -200,000.

Restatement 2, use absolute value of the differences so score is always non-negative: Grading formula thus is abs(difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + abs(difference between prediction and actual number of deaths) x 25

Deadline is Thursday 11:59PM CT, thus 9:59PM PT tonight, 12:59AM ET, Friday morning.

Will look for EJD's concurrence.
Agree with both of these Bob. It's not like The Price Is Right where there's a penalty for going over. I stated these sloppily. Thank you for clarifying.
 
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#77
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Dell Dude: 55,555/777
BigDeemer: 240,000/9,900
ERBtheGREAT: 24,000,000/480,000
Valuist: 5,000,000/50,000
mr merlin: 6,300,000/770,000
Juan Marichal: 3,500,000/350,000
bomzee: 8,686,868/86,868
 
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