Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

#84
So much fear mongering by alphabeat soup world govt orgs, they benefit my stretching it out. The Models are 99% utter nonsense. IF allowed I would like to lower my prediction to about half of dell dudes numbers
 
#85
So much fear mongering by alphabeat soup world govt orgs, they benefit my stretching it out. The Models are 99% utter nonsense. IF allowed I would like to lower my prediction to about half of dell dudes numbers
99% of models is junk science. and like in all things, people claiming science is not science, if so science is less than 1% accurate in most things
 
#89
Final list of entries:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
ZzyzxRoad: 5,000,000/350,000
OLDSANDBAGGER: 100,000,000/1,200,000
Jb777: 6,000,000/120,000
John Kelly: 1,000,000/5,000
Dell Dude: 55,555/777
BigDeemer: 240,000/9,900
ERBtheGREAT: 24,000,000/480,000
Valuist: 5,000,000/50,000
mr merlin: 6,300,000/770,000
Juan Marichal: 3,500,000/350,000
bomzee: 8,686,868/86,868
Abundy: 2,000,000/2,000
yisman: 45,000,000/842,000
ComptrBob: 590,000/3,100
 
#90
Well, now that the selection deadline has passed, I’ll elaborate.

My 90,000/2500 estimate most certainly is not based on any concept that “COVID-19 is no worse than the flu, and this all is a big overreaction.” I instead believe that this is a very serious outbreak with at least the potential – if unchecked – to rival the 1919 Spanish flu.

But, first, the bet is tied to when the World Health Organization stands down from its global pandemic label. Just like WHO was slow to use the pandemic label in the first instance, I believe that they will be quick, possibly quicker than they should be, in standing down from that particular label. Among other things, there is tremendous pressure, which will get even stronger, to keep economies running so that the global powers that be can remain the powers that be.

So, my estimate is not as to the total number of cases/deaths for the actual total duration of the COVID-19 outbreak(s) – including possible recurring waves over the next few years, like with prior pandemics. It instead is tied to the first date on which WHO downgrades this from a global pandemic, which pronouncement I expect to be made actually sooner than it should.

Second, the bet is premised upon an optimistic assessment that the extreme shutdown measures in the United States will be mostly effective by that date when WHO first (probably prematurely) downgrades this from a global pandemic.

For that projection, directly extrapolating from the numbers in other countries is problematic for a number of reasons. For example, China’s numbers are highly unreliable (they under-represent, but there’s also a billion or so people there), and Italy had its “oh . . . shit” moment later in the relative stages of the process than in the U.S. before Italy adopted similar shutdown measures. And there also are cultural differences, such as cross-generational personal proximity and smoking rates, that factor in. And of course there’s variances among the countries in how many people have been – or ever will be – conclusively tested for the virus. So there’s a high degree of subjectivity involved in extrapolating from the numbers in other countries to determine probable case and mortality numbers in the U.S. by a certain time.

So them’s are my assumptions – for this particular bet – and I hope for our sake that I’m right, which very, very much remains to be seen. ‘Cause this “ain’t just like the annual flu” in my opinion. In all events, the bet’s a free roll, lol.

The Red Cross will do for my charity.
 
#95
Well, now that the selection deadline has passed, I’ll elaborate.

My 90,000/2500 estimate most certainly is not based on any concept that “COVID-19 is no worse than the flu, and this all is a big overreaction.” I instead believe that this is a very serious outbreak with at least the potential – if unchecked – to rival the 1919 Spanish flu.

But, first, the bet is tied to when the World Health Organization stands down from its global pandemic label. Just like WHO was slow to use the pandemic label in the first instance, I believe that they will be quick, possibly quicker than they should be, in standing down from that particular label. Among other things, there is tremendous pressure, which will get even stronger, to keep economies running so that the global powers that be can remain the powers that be.

So, my estimate is not as to the total number of cases/deaths for the actual total duration of the COVID-19 outbreak(s) – including possible recurring waves over the next few years, like with prior pandemics. It instead is tied to the first date on which WHO downgrades this from a global pandemic, which pronouncement I expect to be made actually sooner than it should.

Second, the bet is premised upon an optimistic assessment that the extreme shutdown measures in the United States will be mostly effective by that date when WHO first (probably prematurely) downgrades this from a global pandemic.

For that projection, directly extrapolating from the numbers in other countries is problematic for a number of reasons. For example, China’s numbers are highly unreliable (they under-represent, but there’s also a billion or so people there), and Italy had its “oh . . . shit” moment later in the relative stages of the process than in the U.S. before Italy adopted similar shutdown measures. And there also are cultural differences, such as cross-generational personal proximity and smoking rates, that factor in. And of course there’s variances among the countries in how many people have been – or ever will be – conclusively tested for the virus. So there’s a high degree of subjectivity involved in extrapolating from the numbers in other countries to determine probable case and mortality numbers in the U.S. by a certain time.

So them’s are my assumptions – for this particular bet – and I hope for our sake that I’m right, which very, very much remains to be seen. ‘Cause this “ain’t just like the annual flu” in my opinion. In all events, the bet’s a free roll, lol.

The Red Cross will do for my charity.
Red Cross is an international theft ring. less than 3% goes to helping.
 
#97
Well, Railbird, you're free to designate, for your bet, whichever charity you would like.

As for WHO, it suffices for me for this bet that their calls as to whether and when something is or is not a pandemic are to me skewed. Their call is part of the conditions of the bet, and so that expressly was factored into the rationale for my bet.

I'm otherwise not at liberty to publicly discuss politics in my current employment, and my understanding of the parameters for this thread was that it was restricted to predictions/bets, leaving political discussion for other threads.
 
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FWIW, the RJ's coronavirus page runs sets of numbers for NV, the US & the world. I, too had been culling things from the John Hopkins tracking. But the RJ's numbers are quick, and keeping that page up in a window then also has local COVID-19 related stories. There is some slight variance between the two, but that might be due to when the data was updated, etc.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/tag/c...coronavirus&utm_source=lvrj&utm_medium=banner
 
Looks like Dell Dude (55,555/777) at least may be fairly close to the then-mortality number as of when the total US cases hit 55,000 (yes, this is kind of ghoulish, macabre or whatever . . . .)

UNITED STATES
52,878 CONFIRMED CASES
684 DEATHS

(copied from lvrj.com's coronavirus update page, at 1:38 PT)
 
Looks like Dell Dude (55,555/777) at least may be fairly close to the then-mortality number as of when the total US cases hit 55,000 (yes, this is kind of ghoulish, macabre or whatever . . . .)

UNITED STATES
52,878 CONFIRMED CASES
684 DEATHS

(copied from lvrj.com's coronavirus update page, at 1:38 PT)
Capped the ratio right but not the total.
 
So this means if the doctors tell him not to re-open businesses he won't? I certainly hope so, but I highly doubt it, time will tell
At some point soon, no choice but to turn those machines back on no matter how many people die. You can't commit economic suicide to save a small percentage of the country. Only way you shut it down completely is to avoid extinction.
 
Moment of truth. Will the United States Paul Pierce 100,000? I still say no. I still say we are close to the top. Look at China. Look at Italy. China stopped short. Italy leveling.
 
Lock and quarantine the Rotten Apple. Wait until the chink virus goes to final time and we have a new red state.
With all the bars, restaurants, casino's, etc shut down nationwide, in most states with modest case numbers, they might come under control in the next few weeks. NY wont, it'll be rather enjoyable watching them suffer.

Fucking deblasio was on a few min ago, bitching about everyhthng, all doom and gloom, none of the blame is on him however.
 
Reminds me of the scene from Saving Private Ryan when they were going cavalierly through the dog tags looking for Ryan's, and then realized how that looked . . .

UNITED STATES
53,609 CONFIRMED CASES
698 DEATHS

Would be nice if Dell Dude were suddenly right on the count with that stopping short, but unfortunately not likely.
 
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