Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

39,000 by saying "CORONAVIRUS" after a death without any ramifications if it's untrue.
From a posting by factcheck.org:

"Medicare — the federal health insurance program for Americans 65 and older, a central at-risk population when it comes to COVID-19 — pays hospitals in part using fixed rates at discharge based off a grouping system known as diagnosis-related groups.


The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has classified COVID-19 cases with existing groups for respiratory infections and inflammations. A CMS spokesperson told us exact payments vary, depending on a patient’s principal diagnosis and severity, as well as treatments and procedures. There are also geographic variations.


An analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation looked at average Medicare payments for hospital admissions for the existing diagnosis-related groups and noted that the “average Medicare payment for respiratory infections and inflammations with major comorbidities or complications in 2017 … was $13,297. For more severe hospitalizations, we use the average Medicare payment for a respiratory system diagnosis with ventilator support for greater than 96 hours, which was $40,218.” (all bolding by me)


It is true, however, that the government will pay more to hospitals for COVID-19 cases in two senses: By paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency, and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate).


Both of those provisions stem from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act.'
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
My advice to anyone is take a language you would be interested in learning as you would be more likely to apply yourself to learning it.

Two benefits not readily obvious to learning a 2nd language.

1. It helps you understand the structure, grammar, spelling, and so forth of your 1st language.

2. If you become an academic, you'll be able to read and understand research in that 2nd language, which I think is why many liberal arts based degrees require a foreign language. Phd candidates may have to meet this requirement, too. Bilingual students have it easy in this regard.

Side note: Many European countries have their students learn three languages. Their native language and two others. I don't know for sure, but those two others may not both be optional. English may be required.

John, how many years of high school French did you take?

Did you need to take a language to graduate with a J-school degree from Northwestern?

Passed a proficiency exam to avoid taking a foreign language at NU.

Took four years of French in high school.
 
Looks good for Juan Marichal to move up....thanks to those Dem governors reopening way too early...
He may move up but I've said for a long time that JB777 would win. I don't consider what's going on now a second wave, as the first wave wasn't over. But a good chance there is no second wave. It's not an influenza, and other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS never had a second wave.
 
He may move up but I've said for a long time that JB777 would win. I don't consider what's going on now a second wave, as the first wave wasn't over. But a good chance there is no second wave. It's not an influenza, and other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS never had a second wave.
The pandemic is dying, cases nationwide have been steady since late march(between 20-30K), deaths are not steady.
 
zz road for the win
He may move up but I've said for a long time that JB777 would win. I don't consider what's going on now a second wave, as the first wave wasn't over. But a good chance there is no second wave. It's not an influenza, and other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS never had a second wave.
Like zz road for the win, we should have at least 6 more months with a 2nd wave possible.
 
Update, Abundy has about another week with the lead, if 20M cases were confirmed, with same #deaths, bomzee would have a small lead over ERB:

1593157386348.png
 
Last edited:
zz road for the win

Like zz road for the win, we should have at least 6 more months with a 2nd wave possible.
There's no reason to believe there will be a second wave. Spanish Flu and H1N1 were influenzas, and had multiple waves. The previous coronaviruses had no second wave.

Now how long this wave lasts is not known, but it is going down.
 
Update; jb777 takes the lead, will be a long time before it is threatened (at the 3,500,00 case mark, Juan Marichal will need more than 185,000 deaths to lead).

1593416472708.png
 

Abundy

EOG Senior Member
So much for your prediction of leading for another week. Could these record cases be synonymous with all the rioting across the country % I don’t here the news reporting any correlation
 
So much for your prediction of leading for another week. Could these record cases be synonymous with all the rioting across the country % I don’t here the news reporting any correlation
Most likely a mixture of the protests and air conditing use in the south forcing everyone inside. the media is trying to blame it on rushed reopenings and bars but they were open for 6-8 weeks before these spikes, and other states in the north with open bars have seen no spikes. Although with the hot weather moving north they might too.
 
So much for your prediction of leading for another week. Could these record cases be synonymous with all the rioting across the country % I don’t here the news reporting any correlation
Take my predictions with a grain of salt, a few days here or there in this contest which is likely to last another year at least are small potatoes.
 
So much for your prediction of leading for another week. Could these record cases be synonymous with all the rioting across the country % I don’t here the news reporting any correlation
U.S. coronavirus cases rise by nearly 50,000 in biggest one-day spike of pandemic


More than half of new U.S. cases each day come from Arizona, California, Florida and Texas, home to 30% of the country's population. All four states plus 10 others saw new cases more than double in June.

Your theory is incorrect. The spikes are due to reckless leadership that rushed to reopen their states against the recommendations of the CDC. Prioritizing the economy over public health. And now these states have to shut down again.
 
Update: jb777 still leads.

USA Act Cases Act Deaths
Current 3,184,722 134,097

Position Entrant Est Cases Est Deaths Score Poss Win
1 jb777 6,000,000 120,000 3,167,703 Yes
2 Valuist 5,000,000 50,000 3,917,703 No
3 Abundy 2,000,000 2,000 4,487,147 No
4 JohnKelly 1,000,000 5,000 5,412,147 No
5 FairWarning 350,000 27,000 5,512,147 No
6 JuanMarichal 3,500,000 350,000 5,712,853 Unl
7 EJD 550,000 7,500 5,799,647 No
8 ComptrBob 590,000 3,100 5,869,647 No
9 ViejoDinosaur 500,000 5,500 5,899,647 No
10 BigDeemer 240,000 9,900 6,049,647 No
11 Sleepy 300,000 3,200 6,157,147 No
12 Squarepants 90,000 2,500 6,384,647 No
13 Railbird 106,235 1,284 6,398,812 No
14 Dell Dude 55,555 777 6,462,167 No
15 bomzee 8,686,868 86,868 6,682,871 Unl
16 ZzyzxRoad 5,000,000 350,000 7,212,853 Yes
17 Mr Merlin 6,300,000 770,000 19,012,853 Unl
18 ERBtheGREAT 24,000,000 480,000 29,462,853 Unl
19 puckhandler 14,000,000 1,200,000 37,462,853 Unl
20 yisman 45,000,000 842,000 59,512,853 Unl
21 OldSandbagger 100,000,000 1,200,000 123,462,853 Unl
 
As of now, many more dems.

funny how most of the coverage is aimed at Florida and Texas, not much about California in comparison.
Would be a super interesting thing to get in depth numbers on, the kind of detailed breakdowns that we have zero chance of getting.

Like how many actual voters vs non voters died? Obviously a disproportionate amount of African American and Hispanic people that also happened to live in low income zip codes. That subset for instance would have a low probability of actually being a voter.

I would think a huge % of voters died in states where there would be no change in electoral college outcome, even if every single death occurred to a voting member of the states majority party.

I think a bigger question is does a person getting a very bad covid case personally , but recovering have a possible changing the mind effect in a person to swing their vote? How about their close friends and family? Does a near death experience change anything?

How about the surviving friends and family that lose 1 or more than one loved ones to Covid?

How about the health professionals? Are they more or less likely to vote this year? Do the experiences of 2020 have an ability to change their votes?

How about those, out of work and those that lost businesses?

Many more impactful questions surrounding the living, that are think are not going to be properly answered vis traditional polls.
 
Top