Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
kane said:
Dell, the other day a reporter asked Fauci about this exact thing, that a scientist said the virus could travel 27 feet. Fauci said that's only if you have a deep sneeze, he said if you have a big, long, sneeze then it could travel that far, but under normal circumstances keeping a 6 foot distance is fine
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It's simple scare tactics, today drudge has a report that you might be sick for 47 days, let's all put out reports topping the previous...hey, maybe the virus can travel 28 ft?

We need to consider the motivation of people like that, see bill ackman, who 2 weeks ago threw the market into a tailspin when he said the end is near - then it turns out he has shorted the market and made $2 billion.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
mr merlin said:
It's simple scare tactics, today drudge has a report that you might be sick for 47 days, let's all put out reports topping the previous...hey, maybe the virus can travel 28 ft?

We need to consider the motivation of people like that, see bill ackman, who 2 weeks ago threw the market into a tailspin when he said the end is near - then it turns out he has shorted the market and made $2 billion.
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Ackman not only shorted it, but he had covered the short positions only days before that interview, and starting buying up long positions which included Hilton, Lowes and Restaurant Brands.
 
Squarepants

Squarepants

2
Running slightly late on the midday comparison, but I think it's a big number regardless, along with a step back up to prior levels in percentage terms:

UNITED STATES
207,613 CONFIRMED CASES
4,611 DEATHS (+1180)

Recapping in reverse chrono: +1180 (+34.4%) +561 (+19.5%) +432 (17.7%) +474 (24.1%) +487 (32.97%) +341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
IWishIWasAPro said:
I am losing my mind. No tennis. No soccer. Nothing to really bet on. Reality is really sinking in now.

Please. God or whoever created us. Created this beautiful country and world to live in. Bring back sports and eliminate this virus immediately.

Thank you. Love. XOXO
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Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Guys, let's talk. Looks like 50% of positives are asymptomatic, let's go with 5% reach critical and 1% Lady die. If you recover, could be immune for life. Worse and worse, you have enough immunity to make it to vaccine final time. We are gamblers here, right? If you were trapped inside the Hotel & Casino California and you needed $20,000 to check out until you Michael "cash out" and was offered a +100 line on a 28 point home football fave, would you make that bet?

50% of the time your team will cover the number and you'll be able to relax and enjoy the game. 45% you might have a slight 2HT sweat when the dog pulls within a single possession. Still win with room to spare and never in real danger. 4% you really have a sweat and it's a fucking tossup but you survive and advance by a kunt hair. 1% you "cash out but you don't leave".

You make that bet, right? If you don't, you're not a gambler. You're a scared money pussy like Julian Assange and stay Brian Stelter in place in your room for months and then years until it's safe. How did that work out for Julian? It wasn't safe after all.

No, you go all balls out and make the bet without hesitation. You win you're free and 99% you win. This is the situation with corona. The best position is to be a survivor. Full stop immunity. Can go out and enjoy your life like that Twilight Zone episode where everybody in the world was frozen in place. You can't infect anybody either so you don't have to feel guilty. The play here is to not get it on purpose but keep your machines back on and let it rip.
 
Squarepants

Squarepants

2
Cresting by another kilo-milestone, as I say these will start to zip by as 1000 becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of the total:

UNITED STATES
214,639 CONFIRMED CASES
5,099 DEATHS
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
6 feet enough for social distancing? MIT researcher says droplets carrying coronavirus can travel up to 27 feet
 
OLDSANDBAGGER

OLDSANDBAGGER

EOG Senior Member
Not so long it seems before every projection higher on the list than Valuist will be surpassed in one column or the other. Hope not, but that’s the math. I’d make ZzyzxRoad the favorite for now. Hope they can limit it to his numbers.
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
Dell Dude said:
As of this morning:

179,078 / 4397 blue states
35,796 / 676 red states

And no Brian Stelter in place these eleven(11) red states.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1245709454076719105
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despite the obvious geographic and demographic explanations, i think it would be interesting to look into deeper as this progresses.

the 2nd most obvious thing to look at, is rate of spread in regards to the above. I'd like to look at these numbers more deeply after my mid day zoom meetings. Can you give me the list of Blue states we are looking at operationally? not sure where you might put Michigan, Ohio, Florida ect?

but a quick glance using the first state on the list of no shelter. as of last full update.

Alabama population 4,880,000 1108 infected 28 deaths

1 person in 4,404 is infected
1 person in 174,285 alabamians has died


California population 39,560,000 9,807 infected 210 dead

1 person in 4,033 is infected
1 person in 188,380 californians has died.



Should we be concered about the death rate in Alabama?
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Chi_Archie said:
despite the obvious geographic and demographic explanations, i think it would be interesting to look into deeper as this progresses.

the 2nd most obvious thing to look at, is rate of spread in regards to the above. I'd like to look at these numbers more deeply after my mid day zoom meetings. Can you give me the list of Blue states we are looking at operationally? not sure where you might put Michigan, Ohio, Florida ect?

but a quick glance using the first state on the list of no shelter. as of last full update.

Alabama population 4,880,000 1108 infected 28 deaths

1 person in 4,404 is infected
1 person in 174,285 alabamians has died


California population 39,560,000 9,807 infected 210 dead

1 person in 4,033 is infected
1 person in 188,380 californians has died.



Should we be concered about the death rate in Alabama?
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No, i would say California should relax, their lack of density(sprawl), lifestyle, lack of mass transit and climate should save them from a huge peak.
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
mr merlin said:
No, i would say California should relax, their lack of density(sprawl), lifestyle, lack of mass transit and climate should save them from a huge peak.
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yeah possibly a case by case call could be made by counties. There is a good Cali County Covid map here. https://public.tableau.com/profile/ca.open.data#!/vizhome/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals Plenty of wide open low infection area in California right now



we know that Cali WON'T do that though. So it will be an interesting academic case study to see how it spreads into the more rural areas of Cali during a lock down. Vs how it spreads in groups of States not doing a lockdown, We will prob be able to look at a good cluster of 4-6 states that would be roughly the same territory and population of california.

there will be other variables of course, such as general health, access to hospitals, and sadly lack of access to ventilators. If the shit hits the fan too soon in some states, they will surge before new ventilators are coming of GM lines. The big cities won't be ready to give theirs up. It could be a bad situation, timing will be everything. Hopefully warmth and sun will just make it a moot point.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
So now Fauci says the lockdown will continue until "no new cases"? Is he f-cking crazy? That will be months. His 15 minutes are up. Screw him.

Want to see civil war? It could very well be coming.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Valuist said:
So now Fauci says the lockdown will continue until "no new cases"? Is he f-cking crazy? That will be months. His 15 minutes are up. Screw him.

Want to see civil war? It could very well be coming.
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I heard him say that yesterday, i assumed he didn't mean it, did he say it again?
 
Squarepants

Squarepants

2
Passing the 1,000,000 (reported) case milestone on worldwide cases:

NEVADA
1,458 CONFIRMED CASES
38 DEATHS

UNITED STATES
235,747 CONFIRMED CASES
5,620 DEATHS

WORLDWIDE
1,000,207 CONFIRMED CASES
51,356 DEATHS
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Squarepants said:
Passing the 1,000,000 (reported) case milestone on worldwide cases:

NEVADA
1,458 CONFIRMED CASES
38 DEATHS

UNITED STATES
235,747 CONFIRMED CASES
5,620 DEATHS

WORLDWIDE
1,000,207 CONFIRMED CASES
51,356 DEATHS
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You dont really need to update this every day.
 
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