UFC

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#41
Great double bet on Holloway after the line dropped.

I've been told Holloway is not invincible, however, because of a chronic injury history (?).

Is it a concussion issue with Holloway?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#42
Holloway is a gambler, too.

He had Saturday's fight in the bag but stood in the center of the ring over the final 10 seconds of the fight and punched wildly at his opponent.

Of course, the commentators praised his bravado.
 
#43
Great double bet on Holloway after the line dropped.

I've been told Holloway is not invincible, however, because of a chronic injury history (?).

Is it a concussion issue with Holloway?
Not that I am aware of. I consider him pretty damn durable. Usually fights multiple times a year and never gets finished.
You might be referring to this? https://fb.watch/3721yrKWP-/
Friends I have that train with Max said it was a weight cut issue but I never heard anything real definitive.
 
#44
Holloway is a gambler, too.

He had Saturday's fight in the bag but stood in the center of the ring over the final 10 seconds of the fight and punched wildly at his opponent.

Of course, the commentators praised his bravado.
It was out of a movie type stuff. Cracked him with a no look cross and no look dodging of punches. Crazy. I think it was a calculated risk blended with a machismo. I think he knew Kattar had no sting on his shots at that point in the fight. He was literally a dead man walking
 
#45
Holloway is a gambler, too.

He had Saturday's fight in the bag but stood in the center of the ring over the final 10 seconds of the fight and punched wildly at his opponent.

Of course, the commentators praised his bravado.
BTW your comments on tiered vs flat betting couldn't have rang more true on saturday. Lose the big one and hit the small one. I'll monitor and adjust if the woes continue
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#46
It was out of a movie type stuff. Cracked him with a no look cross and no look dodging of punches. Crazy. I think it was a calculated risk blended with a machismo. I think he knew Kattar had no sting on his shots at that point in the fight. He was literally a dead man walking

Machismo, that's the word.

It's a double-edge sword.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#47
I appreciate your knowledge of the sport, SMARTZ.

I simply don't connect with the UFC culture.

It can be brutal to watch some of the beatings in the octagon.

Much prefer the sweet science of boxing.
 
#48
Hakeem Dawodu +169 (73" reach) vs Shane Burgos (75" reach)
Current line: Dawodu +169

After getting caught in a guillotine in the first 30 seconds of his UFC debut, Hakeem has reeled off 5 straight wins vs quality competition. Boasting an outstanding 5.15 Sig Strikes landed per min vs 2.31 Absorbed per min in the process. Hakeem has a rare ability to apply pressure and evade oncoming strikes in the process. His fighting style is conservative and technical. Which is rare from a fighter as athletic as he is. A consistent slow starter, he uses the first five minutes to download his opponent and output tends to increase dramatically in the 2nd and 3rd once he understands range and timing. Shane Burgos has the opposite approach. A very gifted striker he applies pressure and pace from the jump. Landing a whopping 7.31 strikes but absorbing 5.81 for his efforts. His defense is much to be desired and can sometimes be non-existent. He is very willing to take one to give one. This approach worked well against lesser competition but he has been getting cracked as of late and his chin has started to fail him. Absorbing 100+ strikes in 2 of his last 3 and being knocked down in 3 of his last 5.

I am a little concerned that this will be the first fight in the UFC that Hakeem does not have the reach advantage. Burgos is an enormous 145'er at 5'11 with 75" reach. So will he still be able to employ his normal gameplan and maintain distance/defend as well as normal? I am betting he will. Most likely employing more kicks to cover ground and relying heavily on counters as Burgos tries to walk him down. I expect this to be a methodical, technical standup fight (that hopefully wont develop into the slugfest Burgos wants). With Dawodu taking over as the fight progresses. Hakeem by unanimous decision.

Most likely will be adding another unit on this play.
 
#49
I appreciate your knowledge of the sport, SMARTZ.

I simply don't connect with the UFC culture.

It can be brutal to watch some of the beatings in the octagon.

Much prefer the sweet science of boxing.
I was not impressed in the early days of robotic striking and crotch sniffing grappling. But as the sport has evolved, I've really become a fan. Give it another chance JK, it grows on you like a fungus :D
 
#50
Great double bet on Holloway after the line dropped.

I've been told Holloway is not invincible, however, because of a chronic injury history (?).

Is it a concussion issue with Holloway?
Devastating weight cuts in his history. There was definitely concerns about health due to weight cuts. He's fought in two weight classes. Not sure which class he's currently fighting in.
 
#51
Devastating weight cuts in his history. There was definitely concerns about health due to weight cuts. He's fought in two weight classes. Not sure which class he's currently fighting in.
He's fought all but 1 fight at 145. Fought Poirier for the 155lb title and loss by decision.

I don't think he's ever missed weight in his career. He was ruled medically ineligible during a weight cut when he tried to fight Khabib. But this was on 5 days notice as a last minute replacement for Tony Ferguson. He needed to lose roughly 25 lbs in less than a week

Fun Fact: I did a little research. Holloway has never suffered a knockdown in his career. That's an insane stat.
 
#53
Max is 5'11". Walking around weight around 170. Cutting to 145 is not healthy? On short notice he couldn't make 155 to fight Nurmagadov. He got to 159 when doctors said no more, you're not fighting.

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/max-holloway-walkaround-weight.3758383/

https://www.cbssports.com/mma/news/...ow-close-he-was-to-making-weight-for-ufc-223/
I don't know if you're arguing with me? You basically restated what I said. The situation causing the doctors to call it had far more to do with it being on 5-days notice than anything else. And for the UFC, a 25-30lb cut is far from being rare under normal circumstances. For the record, I think weight cutting in general is silly and an outdated practice. I think ONE Championships weigh in protocol makes much more sense, using hydration levels and average walking weight.

Anyway when a guy successfully makes weight successfully 28 times in a row (with many being championship weight) and is known for having maybe the best cardio and durability in company history (AKA not displaying the effects of a bad cut). "Devastating" just doesn't seem like the appropriate word. I think he and his team cut weight effectively. I think Khabib is a guy you can say has devastating cuts. He's missed and pulled out of fights because he couldn't get to the target number. He also cuts a shit ton of weight (Is said to walk around about 190). By far the craziest weight cutter in recent memory is Anthony Rumble Johnson. He was huge for 205 and known as maybe the biggest power puncher ever in the 205 division. Yet he fought at 170 at the beginning of his UFC career. He is going to fight at heavyweight now for Bellator.

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#56
I thought Mason Jones won. He was moving forward the whole fight, threw a lot more punches, lost the takedown count but got up quickly each time. Was the stronger fighter in the third and when the fight ended. Disagree with all 3 judges.
 
#58
I thought Mason Jones won. He was moving forward the whole fight, threw a lot more punches, lost the takedown count but got up quickly each time. Was the stronger fighter in the third and when the fight ended. Disagree with all 3 judges.
It was close, no doubt. I was impressed with Mason's durability/chin and output, not much else. Mike landed the more impactful punches imo and evaded a multitude of strikes.
 
#61
It was close, no doubt. I was impressed with Mason's durability/chin and output, not much else. Mike landed the more impactful punches imo and evaded a multitude of strikes.
Very close and great fight. I was impressed how Mason kept taking the fight to Davis, the way he strung together combinations,his endurance and conditioning, and how he was able to get up quickly after being taken down. His face showed more damage but he never backed down or slowed down, he kept coming. Never seemed hurt. I guess offense didn't win this fight in the eyes of the judges
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#62
Not knowing much about the finer points of UFC action, I find it interesting to read commentary from those in-the-know.

And here's one thing that is true about winning analysts in any sport: They may miss a prediction or forecast every now and then, but their post-fight or postgame analysis is spot-on.
 
#63
Add:

1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250

Similar to my McGregor bet, I am wagering Chiesa finishes Magny if he wins. Magny has a serious cardio advantage in this one. Not because Chiesa's cardio is bad but because Magny's cardio is amazing. In 5 round bout this a huge advantage. However, Magny's takedown defense is questionable. Stuffing only 59% of attempts. His last 3 bouts vs high level bjj fighters have ended in L's via submission (RDA, Maia, Moraes). Magny has only been finished 5x in his career but 4 of those finishes have been via the submission. As the fight progresses I think Magny starts to gain an advantage, and a decision win by Chiesa seems unlikely. Need some takedowns and Chiesa to impose his dominant top game.
 
#65
Very close and great fight. I was impressed how Mason kept taking the fight to Davis, the way he strung together combinations,his endurance and conditioning, and how he was able to get up quickly after being taken down. His face showed more damage but he never backed down or slowed down, he kept coming. Never seemed hurt. I guess offense didn't win this fight in the eyes of the judges
I get you and I've been on the other side of these types of fights. This is how you lose a bet when wagering on guys like Chito Vera (i.e. vs Song Yadong, Jose Aldo) and Nate Diaz (i.e. vs Conor McGregor). Almost always finishing as the fresher and more aggressive fighter, despite absorbing more damage than their opponent. Ultimately, who delivers the most damage is the victor more often than not though. I personally am more of a quality over quantity guy but that's what makes MMA interesting. Decisions are totally subjective and determined by the bias of the judges.
 
#69
I get you and I've been on the other side of these types of fights. This is how you lose a bet when wagering on guys like Chito Vera (i.e. vs Song Yadong, Jose Aldo) and Nate Diaz (i.e. vs Conor McGregor). Almost always finishing as the fresher and more aggressive fighter, despite absorbing more damage than their opponent. Ultimately, who delivers the most damage is the victor more often than not though. I personally am more of a quality over quantity guy but that's what makes MMA interesting. Decisions are totally subjective and determined by the bias of the judges.
I also think preflight expectations influence a judges decision. Davis was supposed to win the fight. Do you think the official judges knew this. I know the 20 media judges knew. If a round is close a judge may subconsciously default to his preflight expectations

I'm not arguing with you just sharing my viewpoint. Your UFC thread is excellent.
 
#71
I also think preflight expectations influence a judges decision. Davis was supposed to win the fight. Do you think the official judges knew this. I know the 20 media judges knew. If a round is close a judge may subconsciously default to his preflight expectations

I'm not arguing with you just sharing my viewpoint. Your UFC thread is excellent.
Possibly. I've wondered the same before too. I kind of wish open scoring was a thing in the UFC so you could get a better feel for what the judges are seeing in real time.

Mason Jones is a huge fade for me if the right matchup presents itself next fight. I think most who walk away from this as a viewer see this as an impressive loss. But striking defense and takedown defense were poor imo. If he finds himself against someone with good bjj, all that durability is going to get smothered on the mat if he doesn't shore up the takedown d.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#80
Strange in-fight price after the first round?

Akhmedov dominated the first round yet Breese was a bigger fave in live wagering than before the opening bell.
 
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